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Debate House Prices


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MSE News: House prices climbed in October, says latest report

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Comments

  • Batchy
    Batchy Forumite Posts: 1,632 Forumite
    edited 4 November 2010 at 12:28PM
    Affordability in Oct 2009 based on 164.9k house price is a 4.6 multiple of income

    Affordability in Oct 2009 based on 164.9k house price is a 4.5 multiple of income

    says it all really, price stayed the same, but affordability increased by 2%...

    Home owners happy, people looking to buy, happier too. Everyones a winner.
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  • shortchanged_2
    shortchanged_2 Forumite Posts: 5,546 Forumite
    chucky wrote: »
    so why didn't they distort them last month when they fell 3.4%???

    Perhaps London had a slow month as well. :D
  • Really2
    Really2 Forumite Posts: 12,398 Forumite
    Perhaps London had a slow month as well. :D

    Mix adjust and seasonal adjust should make that not a factor.

    More likely the fact is the Halifax data is fairly pinched at the moment.
    The other two indexes are not as volatile, so there has to be a problem somewhere on what the halifax are doing.
    I would say it is just down to sample size, and how that is affecting their seasonal and mix adjustments.

    It will get to nearly the same point as the others, just not as smoothly by the look of it.
  • Blacklight
    Blacklight Forumite Posts: 1,565
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    Batchy wrote: »
    Affordability in Oct 2009 based on 164.9k house price is a 4.6 multiple of income

    Affordability in Oct 2009 based on 164.9k house price is a 4.5 multiple of income

    says it all really, price stayed the same, but affordability increased by 2%...

    Home owners happy, people looking to buy, happier too. Everyones a winner.

    That's what's going to happen for the foreseeable future. Until all of a sudden people realise they can afford to buy and the market picks up and prices rise again.
  • Graham_Devon
    Graham_Devon Forumite Posts: 58,560
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    Person opinion:

    Can't be bothered with the arguments going on. It was pretty obvious that this month would see a rise, which is what I, and many other stated on the last Halifax thread on about page 34 or so. Don't think anyone was expecting a fall?

    It's not a rise, per se, not when you look at the 2 months together. It's still a fall over 2 months of 1.8%, it's just with such a massive fall last month, house prices really would be in a desperate situation if this month falls occured on top of falls the month before of -3.6%. These figures (this and last months) are hard to use on their own).

    It does lead to stagnation, but the data making up these figures month on month is at best, volitile. Don't believe any other market would be called stagnant. Would be called boyount, or volitile. Don't remember gold for instance, being called "stagnant" just because it started and finished the year at roughly the same price. A lot can happen in the data that makes up the start and end point, and that's what we have seen in the housing market.

    So yes, stagnant in terms of points A (year start) and B (year end). But volitile at best inbetween those points, which only shows uncertainty in my opinion of where we are right now and where we are heading.
  • chucky
    chucky Posts: 15,170 Forumite
    why do these negative type of "people" cling exclusively to the Halifax index as the be all and end all when trying to make their points about house prices...

    why don't they use the Land Registry or Nationwide indicies....

    no wait, let me guess it doesn't suit their mindset or agenda...
  • shortchanged_2
    shortchanged_2 Forumite Posts: 5,546 Forumite
    I wouldn't say I was negative, just a realist. :p
  • Graham_Devon
    Graham_Devon Forumite Posts: 58,560
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    chucky wrote: »
    why do these negative type of "people" cling exclusively to the Halifax index as the be all and end all when trying to make their points about house prices...

    why don't they use the Land Registry or Nationwide indicies....

    no wait, let me guess it doesn't suit their mindset or agenda...

    I think people are just talking about the Halifax index as that's what the thread is about...
  • Really2
    Really2 Forumite Posts: 12,398 Forumite
    Not that anyone could look at last month not actually being an anomaly and that is correcting out with new data.

    No, last month was correct and every house is still worth 2% less than 2 months ago. :)

    -3.7% looks to all intents based on shaky data, house prices are not that volatile that they go down nearly 4% then go up nearly 2% in 30 days.

    I believe they have been up and down about the same number of times this year.

    If we were truly to have a decent fall, you would have to expect at least some sustained falls.
  • undetterred
    undetterred Forumite Posts: 635
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    chucky wrote: »
    why do these negative type of "people" cling exclusively to the Halifax index as the be all and end all when trying to make their points about house prices...

    why don't they use the Land Registry or Nationwide indicies....

    no wait, let me guess it doesn't suit their mindset or agenda...


    Thought Zoopla was the index of choice yesterday:D
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