MSE News: House prices climbed in October, says latest report

Generali

Some thoughts:

- Seasonal adjustment had no effect this month so actual price rise was 1.8% on the month
- Nominal house prices fell year-on-year......by 3 basis points or 0.03% according to my calculation.
- Halifax claim they rose 1.2% year-on-year. They get to this figure because of the smoothing they apply to their stats. There's nothing wrong with this IMO as house price indices can be pretty noisy.
- Halifax mix adjust so this compares apples with apples - they adjust the stats to account for different types of house selling
- Unless there are some price rises in the next couple of months, Halifax's house price index will go negative on their headline figure year-on-year.

Really2

neverdespairgirl wrote: »

Well, I'm confused! I suppose it does indeed show that Generali is right - monthly figures are noise.

A big down is fairly likely to be addressed quiet quickly, look at GDP growth coming out of recession to one year after to 3-4 years later. (large falls are usully followed by steep gains, long term gains or falls are usually more consistant and more shallow.)

It is a rebound affect, this one is more than likely caused by anomalous data collected last month.
I did say that last month and it was, as usual scoffed at by many.

Perhaps people now realise why three months + data is much smother measure as it helps iron out the rougue months.

setmefree2

dopester wrote: »

What reasons do you expect a spring up in prices smf?

In my very very humble opinion I don't think the Spending Review proved to be that scary for most people. Interest rates are low. The economy is growing... I suppose the higher pound might effect the inner London market?

neverdespairgirl

Really2 wrote: »

I did say that last month and it was, as usual scoffed at by many.

Perhaps people now realise why three months + data is much smother measure as it helps iron out the rougue months.

I don't think I scoffed, certainly. I said it was probably noise, but was a very loud one.

setmefree2

dopester wrote: »

uni fees shoot up ect ect.

We were worried about this and thought this might curtail our spending but when you look at the detail it isn't that bad. The loans don't have to be paid back until students earn £21k and it doesn't attract punishing interest rates until they are earning £41k.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-11677862

Really2

neverdespairgirl wrote: »

I don't think I scoffed, certainly. I said it was probably noise, but was a very loud one.

Sorry, not aimed at you. Just the usuals who turn 1 months figures in to a bull vs bear battle.

The site is little to do with house prices now, and analysing the date. It is more to do with personal battles.

LilacPixie

setmefree2 wrote: »

I'm still saying big 2011....


..... and one of these days someone will "Thank" one of my posts lol

As you asked nicely

LilacPixie

setmefree2 wrote: »

In my very very humble opinion I don't think the Spending Review proved to be that scary for most people.

I tend to agree. TBH I found it a bit of a damp squib. Nothing really seemed to affect my/our personal circumstances directly.

Ironically we offered and accepted an offer just days after the review. I wonder how many people were also waiting for the spending review to be announced before making, or not such a commitment.

Batchy

monthly ups and downs...

reading between the lines... stagnation.

Whats really happening, prices staying stagnant, giving / restoring peoples confidence in the market.
But what really happens, prices lose pace with inflation, so over time, prices become more affordable, IF, and its a big IF, people actually get payrises, unfortunately, public sectors correction, means they WONT for a while.

As for the private sector, well, they will have it good for a couple of years, gaining some ground on the gold plates public sector packages.

also as a side note, I just realised when looking through the papers recently, my 33 year old best mate, now earns more money than the prime minister! (finance director) I have a bad !!! mate! But his pension still isnt as good! lol.

AD9898_2

As I've said elsewhere, the trend is ever so slightly downwards, however no forced sellers = no big crash, the figures IMO are relatively meaningless (and that includes last month's figures).

With lending getting ever tighter, a normal functioning housing market is not possible at current price levels, hence prices are more or less maintained (very few people are forced to sell) on the back of very low approvals and low IRs

I don't see any significant change in the near future unless there is any policy change.