Bull market, how long for?

economic

reeac wrote: »

Read it more carefully. It means that the vast majority of the population get some benefit (in the non-pejorative sense of the word) from HMGs income from various taxes e.g. NHS, police, roads, education etc. It doesn't mean that the vast majority are getting state pensions.
With reference to the NHS there was a recent report from a US based organisation that found the NHS to give much better value than systems in place in other countries. Not surprising as it doesn't need that extra layer of admin., fine print Ts & Cs and dividend payouts associated with insurance.Yes, the NHS is undoubtedly abused by some eg. A&E visits for trivial complaints as it's free at point of use but overall it's still better value. It's interesting that whilst the present government would undoubtedly love to hand the complete operation to one or other of their favourite big companies they know full well that that would be political suicide so they just nibble away at the edges instead.

Agree i misread and the vast majority do see at least some of the return from their taxes paid. but my point is still valid in that we have no idea what productivity will be like in the future so we have no idea how much we can support taxpayer funded services like state pensions and the NHS. So we must ask ourselves is the money being spend wisely and in the most efficient manner, or could we direct some of the money into researching/developing a superior service that would save costs and be a better service in the long term?

Did that US report include NHS costs such as unfunded pension liabilities? did it just compare monetary sums on healthcare or did it also look at the quality of treatments being offered? things like how likely is the patient likely to need treatment after the initial treatment or was a full recovery made or not? Its not just about the money, its also about the quality of treatment. Then you get your true "value for money".

redux

economic wrote: »

How is he giving away to his rich mates? Please explain?

Is this still about Trump?

Someone pointed out the other day that 60% of his tax cuts will go to the richest 1%.

Especially benefitted by these tax cuts are investors in real estate.

(This might even include Trump himself.)

That doesn't seem quite like the help that his swathes of blue collar supporters voted for to make their own lives better or America great again.

economic

redux wrote: »

Is this still about Trump?

Someone pointed out the other day that 60% of his tax cuts will go to the richest 1%.

Especially benefitted by these tax cuts are investors in real estate.

(This might even include Trump himself.)

That doesn't seem quite like the help that his swathes of blue collar supporters voted for to make their own lives better or America great again.

In absolute terms this maybe true. Hardly surprising though as the richest 1% already own a vast amount of wealth (well before Trump got elected), so any tax cuts that benefits small or medium sized business and people will also benefit the rich a lot. Proportionately the tax cuts are not heavily favored towards the rich but of course that wouldn't make good headlines or arguments by the left.

Carrieanne

le_loup wrote: »

Thanks for that.
The pension I paid in for, for 40 years gives me a "benefit" today. I never realised I was a scrounger and will hang my head in shame for ever more.
On the other hand you can go and educate yourself by watching other than Channel 5, reading other than the Daily Mail and other such society dividing c**p.
Oh! Sorry - you don't believe in society do you?

Stigmatising benefit claimants was designed to divide people, I agree with you. It's worked so well as a distraction tool for the 1% versus the 99%. The name of the game is increasing state dependency and control. The simple fact is no-one's State Pension contributions is in a segregated pot 'cause it's another Ponzi.

economic

Carrieanne wrote: »

Stigmatising benefit claimants was designed to divide people, I agree with you. It's worked so well as a distraction tool for the 1% versus the 99%. The name of the game is increasing state dependency and control. The simple fact is no-one's State Pension contributions is in a segregated pot 'cause it's another Ponzi.

It is a ponzi if future productivity falls and therefore tax receipt falls. It wont be a ponzi if the opposite were to happen.

The only think that is certain is that there is no guarantees in anything except death and taxes, and even death im not 100% sure about as we have no idea about medical advancements over the next 50 years say.

redux

economic wrote: »

Proportionately the tax cuts are not heavily favored towards the rich but of course that wouldn't make good headlines or arguments by the left.

You may find it comfortably easy to dismiss this as left wing propaganda, but news agencies such as Bloomberg, Forbes, Fortune and Newsweek aren't usually put in that category.

Lawmakers scrambling to lock up Republican support for the tax reform bill added a complicated provision late in the process -- one that would provide a multimillion-dollar windfall to real estate investors such as President Donald Trump.

The change, which would allow real estate businesses to take advantage of a new tax break that’s planned for partnerships, limited liability companies and other so-called “pass-through” businesses, combined elements of House and Senate legislation in a new way. Its beneficiaries are clear, tax experts say, and they include a president who’s said that the tax legislation wouldn’t help him financially.

“This last-minute provision will significantly benefit the ultra-wealthy real estate investor, including the president and lawmakers on both sides of the aisle, resulting in a timely tax-reduction gift for the holidays,” said Harvey Bezozi, a certified public accountant and the founder of YourFinancialWizard.com. “Ordinary people who invest in rental real estate will also benefit.”

James Repetti, a tax law professor at Boston College Law School, said: “This is a windfall for real estate developers like Trump.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-18/trump-real-estate-investors-get-last-minute-perk-in-tax-bill

Or

https://www.forbes.com/sites/danalexander/2017/12/18/president-trump-could-save-11-million-a-year-from-new-tax-bill/#2f0ad6b02337

Thrugelmir

A discussion better suited to the Money Savers Arms.......

economic

redux wrote: »

You may find it comfortably easy to dismiss this as left wing propaganda, but news agencies such as Bloomberg, Forbes, Fortune and Newsweek aren't usually put in that category.

Lawmakers scrambling to lock up Republican support for the tax reform bill added a complicated provision late in the process -- one that would provide a multimillion-dollar windfall to real estate investors such as President Donald Trump.

The change, which would allow real estate businesses to take advantage of a new tax break that’s planned for partnerships, limited liability companies and other so-called “pass-through” businesses, combined elements of House and Senate legislation in a new way. Its beneficiaries are clear, tax experts say, and they include a president who’s said that the tax legislation wouldn’t help him financially.

“This last-minute provision will significantly benefit the ultra-wealthy real estate investor, including the president and lawmakers on both sides of the aisle, resulting in a timely tax-reduction gift for the holidays,” said Harvey Bezozi, a certified public accountant and the founder of YourFinancialWizard.com. “Ordinary people who invest in rental real estate will also benefit.”

James Repetti, a tax law professor at Boston College Law School, said: “This is a windfall for real estate developers like Trump.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-18/trump-real-estate-investors-get-last-minute-perk-in-tax-bill

Or

https://www.forbes.com/sites/danalexander/2017/12/18/president-trump-could-save-11-million-a-year-from-new-tax-bill/#2f0ad6b02337

“Ordinary people who invest in rental real estate will also benefit.”

I said either left propaganda or headlines. In this case its headlines.

Its very convenient to have just one line saying ordinary people will also benefit. Where are all the numbers to suggest how much the ordinary average real estate investor will benefit? All i see is poor journalism only focusing on trump, because of course that gets all the headlines these days right?

iro

At what point do US Treasuries represent good value?

Currently the 10 Year is on 2.44% with a gently positive curve out to 30 Years at 2.77%, given the likelihood of a significant deficit (at least in the short term) this would appear to still be pricing in the asset repurchases of recent years.

With annualised CPI in the US at 2.2%, arguably the return in US Treasuries does appear better in real
terms than European Bond markets.

What level of US yields represent an opportunity?

Is it worth waiting for a few more Fed moves on rate rises/asset unwinding possibly until the curve flattens or inverts?

Any ideas gratefully received?

BananaRepublic

Voyager2002 wrote: »

The cost of providing state pensions is a good deal greater than the income from NICs that supposedly pays for them. (And note that when politicians refer to the total "Welfare" bill, pensions make up the bulk of the figure they quote.) So the vast maority of us benefit from funds paid in taxes, just as most of us do when we go to see a doctor trained at the tax-payer's expense.

The state pension system is a mess since as you say, today’s payments simply pay today’s pensions. There is no investment. And we have an aging population which means we will be in trouble as there will not be enough money.