House Price Crash Discussion Thread

gallygirl

ixwood wrote: »

http://cgi.ebay.co.uk/APARTMENT-QUAYSIDE-CARRICKFERGUS-Northern-Ireland_W0QQitemZ120171518581QQihZ002QQcategoryZ93847QQssPageNameZWDVWQQrdZ1QQcmdZViewItem

Made me laugh.

emmmm...... me too! !!!!!!!!!! We really are due for a 'correction'!!!!! (Although it does look very nice....)

IveSeenTheLight

mrsw wrote: »

Not sure which county th other poster is talking about, but when I looked at Property Snake on Monday it showed 0 reductions in Berkshire.

Also Aberdeenshire or Aberdeen City.

According to nationwide, Aberdeen posted the second top city for house price increases in q3 2007
http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/Q3_2007.pdf

IveSeenTheLight

pamaris wrote: »

I hope you realize that that doesn't mean there are no reductions, as propertysnake does not have the properties from Rightmove listed, due to some noise Rightmove made about propertysnake. We would see a much more accurate picture if propertysnake was allowed to include Rightmove links.

Actually Rightmove is appalling for displaying properties for sale in Aberdeen / Aberdeenshire.

Rightmove has 36 properties for sale in this area, most of which are new builds and way overpriced

Another website more used for the area has 1970 homes for sale.

Does propertysnake only list rightmove properties?

Another poster said that propertysnake posted 500 house price reductions in their area, my point was that other areas report no reductions in propertysnake.

merlinthehappypig

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Actually Rightmove is appalling for displaying properties for sale in Aberdeen / Aberdeenshire.

Rightmove has 36 properties for sale in this area, most of which are new builds and way overpriced

Another website more used for the area has 1970 homes for sale.

Does propertysnake only list rightmove properties?

Another poster said that propertysnake posted 500 house price reductions in their area, my point was that other areas report no reductions in propertysnake.

Aberdeenshire, like most of Scotland, has houses marketed in a slightly different way to England. Most houses are sold by solicitors who have them on their individual websites and also mostly in one place in a 'Solicitors Property Centre'. For Aberdeenshire this is the Aberdeenshire Solicitors Website at aspc.co.uk. For this reason most property for sale doesn't get on to Right Move and the like as it isn't necessary.

It's a very useful system as probably 90% of houses for sale are all in one place, unlike England where you have to trawl round dozens of differnt websites and offices.

I would be very suprised if there were many price reductions in Aberdeenshire yet, the market was very strong when we left in March. Also the 'offers over' system is less prone to showing a price reduction - if an adjustment needed to be done it would be a reduction in the percentage over the offer price the seller was willing to take.

IveSeenTheLight

chriseast wrote: »

Aberdeenshire, like most of Scotland, has houses marketed in a slightly different way to England. Most houses are sold by solicitors who have them on their individual websites and also mostly in one place in a 'Solicitors Property Centre'. For Aberdeenshire this is the Aberdeenshire Solicitors Website at aspc.co.uk. For this reason most property for sale doesn't get on to Right Move and the like as it isn't necessary.

It's a very useful system as probably 90% of houses for sale are all in one place, unlike England where you have to trawl round dozens of differnt websites and offices.

Very true.
If selling in this area, you HAVE to be on ASPC. I doubt anyone uses any other method nowadays

chriseast wrote: »

I would be very suprised if there were many price reductions in Aberdeenshire yet, the market was very strong when we left in March. Also the 'offers over' system is less prone to showing a price reduction - if an adjustment needed to be done it would be a reduction in the percentage over the offer price the seller was willing to take.

I agree here too.
The market will slow though. We cannot sustain 35% annual HPI's
I think however the fact that there is a shortage of property, that house prices although rapidly increasing are still one of the cheapest area in Britain to buy will mean that I can see a slowdown, but not necessarily any price correction.
More likely Aberdeen will continue to rise on a lower increase percentage and other areas will reduce to close the gap

m00m00

Since the high priests of HPI seem to worship most at the altar of the 'long run' what exactly do they think the long term future of the over heated aberdeen market will be when the oil money moves away, as it will.

merlinthehappypig

m00m00 wrote: »

Since the high priests of HPI seem to worship most at the altar of the 'long run' what exactly do they think the long term future of the over heated aberdeen market will be when the oil money moves away, as it will.

I think you need to differentiate between Aberdeen City and Aberdeenshire here.

Aberdeen City price rises will slow and could fall in the medium term. My son still lives there and has noticed a definite slowing in asking price rises and the percentage over asking price being realised is lessening as well (It wasn't unusual for flats to go for over 100% above asking price this time last year)

Aberdeenshire is a different prospect. Prices have risen enormously over the last 4 years or so, but from a very low base. We bought a modernised farmhouse with 12 acres and outbuildings for £112000 in 2003. We sold 6 acres seperately and then sold the house in 2007 with the other 6 acres for £246000 exactly four years after we bought it. This was a rise of 120%.

There is still scope for these prices to go up as they are still very cheap compared to most other places in the UK. There is also a regular supply of rural properties as English people move up with a dream, experience the reality (weather mostly) and move back (like we did).

In out small rural community of 8 houses, 6 were owned by English people who had moved up in the last 5 years. Only one of them still lives there, but they have all been replaced by other English people. We obviously aren't hardy enough!

obsessed_saver

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Does propertysnake only list rightmove properties?

Another poster said that propertysnake posted 500 house price reductions in their area, my point was that other areas report no reductions in propertysnake.

No, property snake now get its data from other sources because Rightmove refused them the use of their data. But it's much harder to skim the data off other smaller sites than it is to get it off Rightmove which has a lot of properties.

IveSeenTheLight

m00m00 wrote: »

Since the high priests of HPI seem to worship most at the altar of the 'long run' what exactly do they think the long term future of the over heated aberdeen market will be when the oil money moves away, as it will.

Overheated Aberdeen Market???????
It's still one of the cheapest places to buy in the UK and has only been catching up in recent years

regarding oil drying up. Haven't they been saying thay for the past 30 years?
Since the oil industry developed its base in 1969, there have been people saying that the oil would run out in 20 years.
Then again in the 80's and 90's they were saying there was only 10-15 years left.
As technology develops, it becomes more efficient to drill for oil and gas fields that was not worthwhile 10, 20, 30 years ago.

Technology is also enabling fields that were in deep water to be developed such as the Atlantic Ocean.

The oil industry is becomming far more global as well.
Companies are exploring globally while maintaining their bases in Aberdeen.
One of the reasons why these companies have kept their knowledge, expertice and bases in Aberdeen is that the North Sea is one of the most treacherous seas to explore oil from.

With all this at hand, I'm sure Aberdeen will continue to prosper for a very long time. Hopefully long enough till I retire

Jonbvn

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

With all this at hand, I'm sure Aberdeen will continue to prosper for a very long time. Hopefully long enough till I retire

With Oil currently at $85/barrel and looking like it will increase to $100, property in Aberdeen is unlikely to go down in price in the foreseeable future.

I am extermely fortunate to benefit from this in another oil town elsewhere in the world, when I bought a property when oil was approx $20/barrel. BTW this was entirely luck not judgement.