Woodford Predictions

bostonerimus

Thrugelmir wrote: »

The impact of a devaluing £ though, has been to push inflation up here to twice the rate in the US. Swings and roundabouts as they say.

Indeed.........

talexuser

economic wrote: »

/what are your stock market views next year?

A correction has to come, we can't say when. Central banks have pushed up asset prices and channeled people into stock markets for nearly 10 years with low interest rates and financial tricks. Articles describe various parameters of stocks way out of normal ranges compared to today's valuations, and interest rates are no longer much of a tool available to Central Banks if a crash happens. Do you hang on for the ride and bank on remaining gains after a crash being enough or cash in and miss out on a further rise in the interim - who knows? Maybe 2018 will carry on without the £ or € (or $) crashing or Trump finding a red button? but I find it hard to believe that Governments and Central Banks can put off the reckoning forever.

economic

talexuser wrote: »

A correction has to come, we can't say when. Central banks have pushed up asset prices and channeled people into stock markets for nearly 10 years with low interest rates and financial tricks. Articles describe various parameters of stocks way out of normal ranges compared to today's valuations, and interest rates are no longer much of a tool available to Central Banks if a crash happens. Do you hang on for the ride and bank on remaining gains after a crash being enough or cash in and miss out on a further rise in the interim - who knows? Maybe 2018 will carry on without the £ or € (or $) crashing or Trump finding a red button? but I find it hard to believe that Governments and Central Banks can put off the reckoning forever.

this is classic biased and media thinking. from what i can see companies are doing well earnings wise and the economy is getting stronger globally. surely this is the reason to stay invested in stocks? the low rates will probably stay low for a long time whilst inflation is tepid. so this makes valuations look high when actually its not that high.

basically: it's the economy

Prism

economic wrote: »

How is everyone positioned going forward /what are your stock market views next year?

Stronger USD and US stocks continue to outperform?

My views are based on my current positioning which is: 65% US stocks, rest non US stocks, overweight US banks and tech stocks.

I have no idea so I am staying fully in equites. I don't need the money for 15 years.

I'm about 55% US, 20% UK and Europe, 10% Japan and 15% EM. Overweight tech, health and staples. No banks or oil

economic

Prism wrote: »

I have no idea so I am staying fully in equites. I don't need the money for 15 years.

I'm about 55% US, 20% UK and Europe, 10% Japan and 15% EM. Overweight tech, health and staples. No banks or oil

how old are you?

i think convention says the older you get the less you should be in equities and more in defensive assets.

bostonerimus

economic wrote: »

how old are you?

i think convention says the older you get the less you should be in equities and more in defensive assets.

If you look at the efficient frontiers for return and income generation a 60/40 allocation is a good compromise. I'm 56 years old and I'm 70/30. There have been studies that show a rising equity allocation in retirement maximizes the probability of "success", but your ability and desire to take risk are going to be the deciding factors.

economic

bostonerimus wrote: »

If you look at the efficient frontiers for return and income generation a 60/40 allocation is a good compromise. I'm 56 years old and I'm 70/30. There have been studies that show a rising equity allocation in retirement maximizes the probability of "success".

i wonder how these studies are conducted. you really gotto question studies. based on that study why not just be all in equities for your entire lifetime?

with a set allocation you take a view on the markets (stocks and bonds etc).

im 34 so i am fully invested in stocks and dont intend to buy bonds for a very long time. if i was in my 60s would i still want to be all in stocks? clearly you may want to own bonds as you expect it to reduce volatility but why not just hold cash? far less risky then bonds specially now in the bond cycle.

you can easily use cash whenever you want to buy stocks when you want. with bonds you have to sell and you maybe hesitant as you hope it rises first.

Prism

economic wrote: »

how old are you?

i think convention says the older you get the less you should be in equities and more in defensive assets.

I'm 46. I have never had a job which has paid a pension and I've been self employeed for the past 15 years. Bascially I have liitle choice - I paid in too liitle. If I want a reasonable sum by the age of 60 I need to keep the risk level higher. Saying that, my Morningstar profile tells me I am 42% defensive as opposed to the standard 24% - assuming that holds true during the next crash I should be ok

economic

Prism wrote: »

I'm 46. I have never had a job which has paid a pension and I've been self employeed for the past 15 years. Bascially I have liitle choice - I paid in too liitle. If I want a reasonable sum by the age of 60 I need to keep the risk level higher. Saying that, my Morningstar profile tells me I am 42% defensive as opposed to the standard 24% - assuming that holds true during the next crash I should be ok

i guess the 42% defensive is because you are overweight staples?
with tech and healthcare you should have a lot of growth ahead of you. IMO tech and healthcare should outperform in the long run and you are only 46.

bostonerimus

economic wrote: »

i wonder how these studies are conducted. you really gotto question studies. based on that study why not just be all in equities for your entire lifetime?

100% equities introduces risk that is disproportionally large for the potential return. These studies are generally done using historical market index returns. If you are an active investor there is going to be another uncertainty (for good or ill) imposed on the results.