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Woodford Predictions
Comments
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im 34 so i am fully invested in stocks and dont intend to buy bonds for a very long time. if i was in my 60s would i still want to be all in stocks? clearly you may want to own bonds as you expect it to reduce volatility but why not just hold cash? far less risky then bonds specially now in the bond cycle.
you can easily use cash whenever you want to buy stocks when you want. with bonds you have to sell and you maybe hesitant as you hope it rises first.
I do have a cash buffer in a stable value account that earns 2%. I am letting my stock percentage drift up by not rebalancing. I expect bonds to have a difficult decade and so I'm in an intermediate bond index and I'm just reinvesting the interest to mitigate drops in value.“So we beat on, boats against the current, borne back ceaselessly into the past.”0 -
Yes. The staples comes from Fundsmith though that also gives me health which is defensive too. I also have an L&G health passive tracker which is also classed as defensive. Looking back at the finincial crisis health stocks didnt drop too far. I'm not sure they will recover the growth of the last 6 years though. Its currently one of my worst performing funds at about 10% a year and it might hold up almost as well during a crash as bonds.
I'm overweight tech because I work in cloud and automation. I know this doesnt give me some special insight into tech stocks but the stuff going on in this sector is amazing and I'm hopeful that these companies will get stronger and stronger.
does the L&G tracker include biotech stocks? this is where i think long term growth should come for. very risky and not for the faint of heart but with a long enough time frame i think its wise to have some allocation to it.
its good you are using your experience to invest in stocks. what tech stocks/ funds do you invest/recommend in apart from the fundsmith allocation? im looking to up my allocation.
my experience has been in banking hence why i have been overweight bank stocks.
also an off the topic question, how do you get into cloud and automation technologies? im very interested in it, looking to move away from finance (yes that even include fintech - far too much of it imo). i am currently learning python.0 -
i wonder how these studies are conducted. you really gotto question studies. based on that study why not just be all in equities for your entire lifetime?
with a set allocation you take a view on the markets (stocks and bonds etc).
im 34 so i am fully invested in stocks and dont intend to buy bonds for a very long time. if i was in my 60s would i still want to be all in stocks? clearly you may want to own bonds as you expect it to reduce volatility but why not just hold cash? far less risky then bonds specially now in the bond cycle.
you can easily use cash whenever you want to buy stocks when you want. with bonds you have to sell and you maybe hesitant as you hope it rises first.
The theory behind not taking 100% equities is more mathematical than a view of the state of markets.
It's widely but not universally accepted that the reason companies/stocks/funds/bonds provide a return for investors is that it is a reflection of the risk that the buyer has taken to be invested.
The more risk, the more return. But the more risk/return, also the more volatility (changeability over time). It is this relationship between volatility and return that will naturally have a 'sweet spot' for palatability. We might be willing to suffer 40% swings to realise a real 6% return, but would we be willing to suffer 70% swings for a 7% return? Few would. You can change the numbers here to whatever you like, but it turns out that an 80/20 portfolio seems more on that sweet spot than 100/0. The long term state of the market might be showing that we're getting lower returns for more volatility, some people think, but the principle stands.
And as I've pointed on this forum before, there is nothing magical about 100/0. If you're really not perturbed by it, you can easily go to a 125% or even 200% or 300% equity portfolio by leveraging. If you go with 100%, it should be a considered decision not just because 80% doesn't seem enough. Perhaps you should be considering a 110% or 120% portfolio if you're finding 100/0 easy going.0 -
does the L&G tracker include biotech stocks? this is where i think long term growth should come for. very risky and not for the faint of heart but with a long enough time frame i think its wise to have some allocation to it.
Yes its full of them however I would say they are diverse. Johnson and Johnson is classed as biotech and I would say very safe. At the low end of the fund I guess its littered with smaller risky biotech companies but I dont get to see beyond the top 10 - all of which are the big safe corporates.
As I said I have no special insight. I do however believe that this current tech trend is nothing like the 2000 bubble. This companies are making vast amounts of money and growing. I have two passives. The L&G tech fund which is basically big tech - 50% apple, google, microsoft and facebook. A much smaller allocation to a robotics ETF from ishares. I am keeping an eye on the new Polar AI fund though I'm not keen on Polar Capital charges.its good you are using your experience to invest in stocks. what tech stocks/ funds do you invest/recommend in apart from the fundsmith allocation? im looking to up my allocation.
I have no real idea how banks work so thats the only reason I haven't looked at them. A couple of my regional funds contain some banks but not a high percentage.my experience has been in banking hence why i have been overweight bank stocks.also an off the topic question, how do you get into cloud and automation technologies? im very interested in it, looking to move away from finance (yes that even include fintech - far too much of it imo). i am currently learning python.
I got into it through Microsoft infrastructure to Azure. I will only be able to go so far unless I get more into coding (Python would do i reckon as a lead in). AI for example is out of my reach but I could probably call myself a dev-ops.0 -
also an off the topic question, how do you get into cloud and automation technologies? im very interested in it, looking to move away from finance (yes that even include fintech - far too much of it imo). i am currently learning python.
Python is high level scripting language, it's useful for quick solutions although I'm more use to Matlab and hate not having all the nice functions and libraries when I use Python. If you want to do lower level stuff then something like C# would be good to learn.“So we beat on, boats against the current, borne back ceaselessly into the past.”0 -
bostonerimus wrote: »Python is high level scripting language, it's useful for quick solutions although I'm more use to Matlab and hate not having all the nice functions and libraries when I use Python. If you want to do lower level stuff then something like C# would be good to learn.
Python can do all that matlab and R can do. Just need to import the relevant modules.
Yes i heard C# is good to learn but what is it used for exactly? I dont want to be a software developer. I want to go into big data / cloud computing / automation.
What do you think of Java?0 -
Python can do all that matlab and R can do. Just need to import the relevant modules.
Yes i heard C# is good to learn but what is it used for exactly? I dont want to be a software developer. I want to go into big data / cloud computing / automation.
What do you think of Java?
I got lazy using Matlab......expensive but well supported and a great environment. Python and MySQL seem popular for databases and big data.
If you want to go into automation then C is the way to go. I'm not skilled in that, but consult on a project that has a couple of folks writing low level C# code to run and coordinate various devices.“So we beat on, boats against the current, borne back ceaselessly into the past.”0 -
Python can do all that matlab and R can do. Just need to import the relevant modules.
Yes i heard C# is good to learn but what is it used for exactly? I dont want to be a software developer. I want to go into big data / cloud computing / automation.
What do you think of Java?
Automation in the cloud (AWS/Azure) is typically code lite and is done typically with scritping languages and json templates. Big data is all about R, Hadoop, machine learning. I don't come across C# all that much anymore.0 -
Python can do all that matlab and R can do. Just need to import the relevant modules.
Yes i heard C# is good to learn but what is it used for exactly? I dont want to be a software developer. I want to go into big data / cloud computing / automation.
What do you think of Java?
What exectly do you mean when you say you don't want to be a software developer but you want to get into big data / cloud computing / automation? In what sense do you want to 'get into' them?
C# is a programming language, mostly confined to Windows computers, which allows you to write programs to perform calculations and store, retrieve and present data.
Java is pretty much the same except it is platform neutral so it runs on Linux and Windows machines for example.
Python is a higher level scripting language, less powerful, slower, some consider it easier to learn and use. It's very common on Linux machines.0 -
BananaRepublic wrote: »What exectly do you mean when you say you don't want to be a software developer but you want to get into big data / cloud computing / automation? In what sense do you want to 'get into' them?
C# is a programming language, mostly confined to Windows computers, which allows you to write programs to perform calculations and store, retrieve and present data.
Java is pretty much the same except it is platform neutral so it runs on Linux and Windows machines for example.
Python is a higher level scripting language, less powerful, slower, some consider it easier to learn and use. It's very common on Linux machines.
I am very new to this so apologies if i am just chatting !!!! but i am looking for opportunities that enable me to use simpler languages like python and from what i have been reading python is great for big data and machine learning/ automation (i think even cloud computing?). i have a maths background so i am finding learning python quite easy but i am no means an expert and i literally have like 5 months total programming experience out of my whole lifetime.
Basically i am trying to understand what kind of jobs can i apply for to use my knowledge in python assuming im at an intermediate level with no practical experience. is my understanding above correct? I do enjoy python and its not me doing it purely for jobs/money etc.0
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