Bitcoins/Cryptocurrency

[Deleted User]

Only 98 days left before mining reward halving. For curious in Bitcoin, I recommend this quick reading, explaining stock to flow model of hard money: https://digitalik.net/btc/sf_model


If you have more time and want to learn more about Bitcoin, Bitcoin Standard by Saifedean Ammous book is a must-have.

Malthusian

pioruns wrote: »

If you have more time and want to learn more about Bitcoin, Bitcoin Standard by Saifedean Ammous book is a must-have.

From the must-read guru whose Twitter feed also brings you gems like

If you're freaking out about Coronavirus ™️, remember that all the data & analysis you see comes from the WHO, the same bureaucratic morons who have spent decades telling the world meat causes heart disease & promoting poisonous industrial oil & statin pills.

[Deleted User]

What does it have to do with Bitcoin? Read the book.

Malthusian

When I have read every decent novel on the planet I might resort to books about how to get rich quick by fruitloop anti-vaxxers. After I have re-read the really good ones.

masonic

pioruns wrote: »

What does it have to do with Bitcoin?

It speaks to the general state of mind of the author.

[Deleted User]

Malthusian just went offtopic to attack the author of the book, which completely doesn't matter when we talk about contents and worthiness of the book. I included a link with short read for TL;DR, you don't need to touch a book. Just google it if you want to do it yourself.

Stock to flow theory applies to any hard money. Gold as well. I mentioned a book because it's worth to read. It's not easy to absorb (it goes very technical at times), and some people are being put away because they look up author's Twitter account and they don't like his views, that's their right, their choice. There is probably more books on the topic, so you can pick different author if you don't like that one.

But theory has existed for years and it applies to Bitcoin, as a hard money, perfectly. Have a look for yourself.

Malthusian

pioruns wrote: »

Malthusian just went offtopic to attack the author of the book, which completely doesn't matter when we talk about contents and worthiness of the book.

If you are ramping zero-sum games then the credibility of the author is not off-topic, as the credibility of the promoters is critical to how much money punters put in hoping to get rich quick.

While anti-vaxxer rhetoric may make the promoter less credible to the general MoneySavingExpert audience, it makes them more credible to the kind of person who will also believe in "fiat currency is a conspiracy by the man to keep you working your 9-to-5" woo woo.

[Deleted User]

No one forces you to read the book or praise the author. If you don't like him of his opinions, just forget about it. You seem to have read only fraction of my post and ignore the rest - I said book doesn't matter, I also gave short link to read as an alternative, which you happily ignored and just targeted the author of the book - hey, he is a bad guy, let's stigmatize Bitcoin forever because of him. Right?
Try to concentrate on idea I tried to share - stock to flow theory. Just read about it on Wikipedia or in broad Internet, if Saifedean Ammous writings are too hard for you.

Malthusian

If you don't want people to critique your suggestions of reading material, don't post them on an open forum.

As millions of books have been written about economics, a heuristic filter - a way of narrowing down the options quickly without running a high risk of missing valuable information - needs to be applied by anyone aiming to improve their knowledge of finance. If you don't use heuristic filters you can literally waste your whole lifetime reading junk. An example of a good heuristic filter is "does the author write obvious nonsense on other subjects, such as calling statins a conspiracy by Big Pharma and claiming that coronavirus has been invented by the WHO; if so find something more interesting".

How difficult Ammous' conspiracy theories are to understand for those of us whose intellectual abilities are not enhanced by tinfoil hats is really neither here nor there.

As for the stock/flow theory thing, anyone can come up with a formula and fit it to past performance, that is easy. The test is whether it successfully predicts Bitcoin prices in the future. I remember one guy round these parts who swore that Bitcoin would be at $100,000 by the end of 2019 and wanted to cash in his pension - unfortunately he deleted his thread after many pages of cheap entertainment. Anyway, this guy's predicting that Bitcoin will mewn to $100,000 by mid-2021 because "exp(-1,84) * SF ^ 3,36 = free 40-foot catamaran", so no doubt he's off cashing in his pension as we speak.

The fundamental problem is not whether his formula is accurate but that someone multiplying their money by 10x in a zero-sum game by buying Bitcoin at $10k and cashing it out at $100k requires ten people to lose the same amount of money. Or one person to lose ten times as much money, or some combination of the two. This is an inherent property of zero-sum games and magic retrofitted formulae do not change that.

[Deleted User]

Ammous didn't invented stock to flow theory. I merely mentioned his book because he talks about Bitcoin (and he talks about history of money, hard money and stock to flow thing). This theory been there for ages. You connected too many dots.

Anyway, if think your way of "heuristic filtering" the knowledge seriously affects your ability to understand Bitcoin. Because of twitter posts of the author (sic), you undermined your chance to understand things behind Bitcoin phenomenon. With this approach, I bet that if you'd heard about Bitcoin in 2010, you would never even consider getting to know if more, mining it or buying it (10000 pieces for a dollar for example), just to experiment. You and I have different approach to innovation.

I won't argue with anyone, I passed the links and interesting reading, that's it from me. Have fun.:beer: