Stockmarket crash imminent? With house prices to follow?

lavandergirl_2

was watching the history of Dow Jones at the telly. Couldnt help but be at awe at the crashes that happened in the stock market especially during the 30s and 70s. The 70's particularly because of rising Oil prices, inflation. Seems like the scenario is the same

purch

Just watching the Idiot Darling on Channel 4

The fool is in denial about just about everything.....even denying the Current Account Defecit is a problem.

SCAREY !!!!! :eek:

dunstonh

You just get this feeling that Darling is not up to the job. Its not the time to have an incompetent Chancellor.

[Deleted User]

Should make me chancellor, then we wont have an economy thats dominated by house price speculators and the Japan carry trade (free money). Although people will have to work for a living and they wont like that.

BTW I have been switching from gold and increasing my normal equitys, all except housing land and debt ridden companys which im not interested in at all until there is a big crash. Im holding my mining and oils despite the recent capitulation. Not for the faint hearted betting against the market, I can say that lol!

Still got lots of buys on my watchlist some amazing bargains at the moment. Because everyone else says Sell, I say Buy , obviously equity funds are good if you dont know how to value stocks. Space the buys out just incase the markets get worse, you need to keep money back to buy bigger bargains. If you do know how to value stocks on fundermentals and from past growth (not future growth) then a 30% discount should more then price in the risk of a slow down/mild recession. Even better aim recession proof/defensive.

:beer:

SilverScooby

dunstonh wrote: »

You just get this feeling that Darling is not up to the job. Its not the time to have an incompetent Chancellor.

Scary - and Ben Bernanke in the US seem clueless too.

Just found Robert Gottliebsen, a brilliant blunt Aussie on www.businessspectator.com.au
Here’s what he said BEFORE this mornings meltdown:

“The worst thing that can happen to a central banker is for the markets to conclude that he does not know what he is talking about. There is grave danger this is happening with US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke. He declares that there will be no American recession despite the fact that house prices are falling, US consumer confidence has plummeted a and the American stock market has fallen about 15 per cent since October. Incredibly, he does not even mention the monoline insurance crisis.
It’s hard to cover these events from Australia but on my reading of it is that it is lunacy to be talking about tax cuts to stop a recession when the money is really required to safeguard the US capital structure, given the $US2,300 billion crisis.
Wall Street would feel much more comforted if Bernanke explained that he recognised the problem and had a plan to manage it.”


I'm mainly in cash, also keeping oils and miners despite losses, just about to start bargain hunting. The monoline crisis scares me off for the moment though

ManAtHome

SilverScooby wrote: »

The monoline crisis scares me off for the moment though

Do you think that's what is scaring lots of others as well? Fire sale of saleable assets before another downgrade in some of the dodgier bonds (CDOs).

[Deleted User]

Well time will tell I take cramers POV on this one, the US government needs to take control of these insurance companys and back the paper. But I think we need to go further then this, the US mortgage losses have totalled 100bn so far, where as 33bn has been paid in bonus' to the fools that were responsible.

My plan of action would be,
- For the US government to sieze control of the 4 bond backing insurers
- To sieze all the bonus' and salarys of all bankers and brokers over and above the national GDP salary and use this money to back the defaulting loans.
- To Arrest and sieze all assets of all those directly invloved in this fraud
- To regulate that it never happens again

Similarly in the UK
- To arrest all those involved in the northern rock pyramid scandal and sieze there assets, especially the directors, risk managers, brokers etc.

The fraud is of course on going, I believe the way the American brokers are acting that they are heavily involved in insider trading. The way the analysts are flip flopping by 50% on stocks is in my mind nothing short of criminal. I believe they are doing this to make some of their losses back via a back door.

Luckily the FSA and UK government is too dumb to do anything about it.

SilverScooby

Yes, who knows how much of the trillions of dollars backed by near-bankrupt monolines is junk, and where it will drag the market?

I'm sure there are bargains, but I've no idea where the markets going next!

[Deleted User]

Interesting vid nice to see a bit of passion

http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=SWksEJQEYVU&feature=related

Nor does anyone really silver, im in for the long term on my beliefs