Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

Herzlos

Lornapink wrote: »

Notice Remainers are avoiding my question.
Let's have another go;

WHAT DOES REMAIN MEAN, WHERE ARE THE EU'S TERMS OF REMAIN, ARE WE TO KEEP OUR REBATE AND OPT-OUT'S, ARE WE TO EMBRACE EVER CLOSER UNION AS HAS PROCEEDED SINCE JUNE 2016?


Remainers claim they are guided by facts, so lets see the precise EU terms for Remain.

I've covered this before.



Remain at the time: yes rebate. Yes opt-outs. Ever closer union that we don't object to.
Remain as time goes on: probably rebate, probably opt-outs, every closer union that we don't object to. (this will get less likely the longer we leave it).

Re-joining after leving: No rebate. No opt-outs. Ever closer union that we're not able to object to.


So brexit; what is it?

Herzlos

Lornapink wrote: »

I know it will come as a shock, but it means being an independent self-governing nation like most other nations on the planet. Bizzare eh?
And if your reply is the standard 'we are fully self-governing, independent & sovereign', then my retort will be that we wont miss Brussels governance and oversight then given we apparently already make ALL our own democratic decisions.

Can you back any of that up?


How will we be independent, self governing if we still need to interact with our neighbours which have various requirements on how stuff is made, for instance?


How useful is self governing if we can't interact with our largest trading partners?

How does all the boring logistics stuff work: trade, movement, regulations, mobile phone roaming, aviation, Euratom?


Brexit means leaving the EU and then doing what the EU tells us until we can find some way to turn someone else into our largest trading parter, when we'll get to do what they tell us.


I kind of agree with you though, on a superficial level "self governing independent nation" sounds great. But it's once you get into all the details that it starts to look a bit... messy and poorly thought-out.


I honestly don't care where my rules are coming from if, for instance, my food bill goes up by 25%, I suddenly have a hard time traveling to Europe, or I have to wait twice as long to get a GP's appointment.

Lornapink

Herzlos wrote: »

How useful is self governing if we can't interact with our largest trading partners?

How does all the boring logistics stuff work: trade, movement, regulations, mobile phone roaming, aviation, Euratom?

I can react in 1 of 2 ways.
1) I can panic, say's it all to hard, not look for solutions, basically capitulate and run away from challenge.

2) I can stay calm, recognise the challenges and work solutions, embrace change, not be afraid of it.

Furthermore I note as ever you list the potential downsides not the upsides. You give me the slight convenience of call roaming, I give you the 82% of UK business that does not trade with the EU & therefore the many opportunities we might realise.

Aviation wont be grounded as you've been told many times, as this would collapse the just recovering Spanish economy.


Many Japanese products & US software services are in my life, not stuck in some lala trade neverland of make believe made in the crucible of Project Fear. Remainers are just so meek in their ambition, trade will of course be fine.

Have you ever thought of trying to see the positive's just for once?

Lornapink

Oh look, Europeans do want things from us it turns out;
The association that represents German asset managers has called for !!!8220;unhindered access!!!8221; to investment services provided by the City after the UK leaves the EU.


http://www.cityam.com/288069/german-asset-managers-call-unhindered-access-city-post

Herzlos

It only seems to be Leavers who have this straw man that Remainers have said the EU doesn't need us or won't suffer. It undoubtedly will. But it'll suffer less than we will, and it won't suffer enough to give us the cake and eat it deal. They value maintaining the EU over trade with the UK. No EU business is going to come to our rescue. They car industry has already told us that.



Brexit is very definitely lose lose.

Lornapink wrote: »

I can react in 1 of 2 ways.
1) I can panic, say's it all to hard, not look for solutions, basically capitulate and run away from challenge.

2) I can stay calm, recognise the challenges and work solutions, embrace change, not be afraid of it.

Furthermore I note as ever you list the potential downsides not the upsides. You give me the slight convenience of call roaming, I give you the 82% of UK business that does not trade with the EU & therefore the many opportunities we might realise.

Aviation wont be grounded as you've been told many times, as this would collapse the just recovering Spanish economy.


Many Japanese products & US software services are in my life, not stuck in some lala trade neverland of make believe made in the crucible of Project Fear. Remainers are just so meek in their ambition, trade will of course be fine.

Have you ever thought of trying to see the positive's just for once?

I've been looking for solutions and positives for 2 years, and I've got nothing. No-one has ever given me a solution to anything beyond blind faith that it'll be alright.


You mention 82% of the UK that doesn't trade with the EU, but you're ignoring that 45% of our trade is with the EU. For that 45% we need to be meeting EU standards and regulations, which means for the stuff which is in part traded with the EU, we either need to meet EU standards for all of it, or run separate production lines, with difference processes, product codes and warehousing.


A large chunk of those 82% of businesses are to end users in the UK where trade with anyone is irrelevant, so there's no additional market to capitalize on. All they'll notice is a reduction in trade if costs go up (I'd bet most of them are using something that comes in via the EU), or their customers have less money.


Mobile phone roaming, for instance, is one of literally dozens if not hundreds of small things that might affect the UK public on a fairly regular basis, even if it's just them using their phone on holiday in Spain and being horrified by the bill.


So going along with your notion that leaving the EU frees us up for world trade, can you go into *any* detail on what new trade we should be looking at? What countries are we going to be targetting for trade deals and for what goods? What specifically will we be able to get by going it alone here?


Even your aviation thing; I agree it'd be stupid for flights to be grounded. It'd cripple us far faster than Spain. However, we'd need to reach some agreement on how it works. Does our Aviation authority (yet to be created) just mirror the EU's? Do we pay for access to the EU's? How does handover work? Will we get American recognition to fly to the US?


So I agree something will be done, but it's still going to be the results of a day or 2 of negotiations. It won't just work by default and it won't just work if we crash out with no deal.


Ditto literally every else; we won't deviate too far from normality, once the agreements are in place.


Being that we still haven't really left phase 1, covering the withdrawal, with a few unanswered questions, I can see us really running out on time on the minutae that'll consume thousands of hours of discussions.


If we had some clue what we wanted and a competent negotiation team, we'd be well into this stuff by now.

Enterprise_1701C

Herzlos wrote: »

I've covered this before.



Remain at the time: yes rebate. Yes opt-outs. Ever closer union that we don't object to.
Remain as time goes on: probably rebate, probably opt-outs, every closer union that we don't object to. (this will get less likely the longer we leave it).

Re-joining after leving: No rebate. No opt-outs. Ever closer union that we're not able to object to.


So brexit; what is it?

If we were to remain the rebate would disappear and the membership fees would rise. How else would it work when they are so many net receivers waiting to join. Opt outs will disappear because they want ever closer union whether we object or not, and it has been stated that they want all members to be in the euro before 2025 (obviously wanting to destroy all economies bar the german one).

Remain does not mean the status quo, it means the gradual destruction of all countries within the eu. It is not as if the eu 26 can agree anyway, the immigration crisis is causing real problems, the Italian economy is about to collapse and there is not a thing they can do about it because they are in the euro, that collapse will probably take down the German government.

To add to their woes the next president of the council of the eu is very anti immigration.

As for what we would get if we were ever to rejoin, hopefully that is irrelevant. The eu needs to grow up and admit it's faults, and actually do something to change so that it is good for all member countries, not just Germany, before we think about rejoining.

Herzlos

If you don't think the EU is good for us, at this point, then there's nothing I can do to change your mind, so I'm not going to bother.

Matt_L

Herzlos wrote: »

If you don't think the EU is good for us, at this point, then there's nothing I can do to change your mind, so I'm not going to bother.

You promise..

Herzlos

Yup. There's no point trying to bring a logical argument to an convince an emotive stance.


That doesn't mean I'll stop asking questions or looking for details. None of which have been provided yet, and will never materialize. I doubt we'll even get any after the fact as no-one will admit to having voted Brexit.

HPC_Ghuol_Hunter

This is what you are up against.