Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

Ballard

kabayiri wrote: »

I think...it's because we didn't elect Trump for PM !

You may despise the man, but I'd choose him for deal making over 50 Theresa Mays.

The problem with most of our politicians is that they put political self interest over the wider needs of the state. What else could explain the Tories choosing a vacuous Remainer like May? There is no conviction from any of them.

Now...imagine if we caved...and remained in the EU. What sort of mincemeat would Macron and Merkel make of our same politicians.

But but but... They need us more than we need them... we cannot possibly lose.

Thrugelmir

Ballard wrote: »

But we were repeatedly told prior to the referendum that they need us more than we need them so, being as we had them over a barrel, we’d get trade deals pretty darned quickly.

How can we possibly have got that so wrong?

One word politics.

we had them over a barrel

That's Daily Mail sensationalism speak. Anybody with any iota of common sene would take a far more pragmatic approach.

kabayiri

Ballard wrote: »

But but but... They need us more than we need them... we cannot possibly lose.

Politicians talk so much nonsense, because they need to seem 'nice'.

We only really care about the EU states with enough money to buy our stuff, and the number of people in those places diminishes with every passing year. The large chunks of unemployed EU youth aren't going to be buying Jags and Land Rovers anytime soon.

Even the newly arrived 1m+ refugees in Germany haven't got a collective pot to pee in.

Nah. They need UK money to bail out the club when the Euro tanks again...and it will.

Thrugelmir

kabayiri wrote: »

Nah. They need UK money to bail out the club when the Euro tanks again...and it will.

Worth following the current German news. National Governments all have to ratify the final deal as well.

An industrial powerhouse built on massive exports and a gigantic car industry, Germany is among the nations most sensitive to mounting trade tensions between the United States and other major economies.
US President Donald Trump has in recent weeks struck his first tariff blows at the European Union and China, who both vowed retaliation -- risking a tit-for-tat trade conflict on two fronts that could weigh on the global Economy.

"Germany's second economic miracle is over," influential daily Die Welt wrote this week, comparing the years of steady growth since the financial crisis to the post-World War II reconstruction period.

Two respected economic think-tanks sharply lowered their growth forecasts, with Berlin-based DIW cutting its prognosis for this year by half a percentage point to 1.9 percent, and then again to 1.7 percent for next year.

Munich's Ifo institute was even more drastic, slashing its forecast to 1.8 percent for 2018 from 2.6 percent previously.

At a company level, Mercedes-Benz maker Daimler was the first among Germany's auto industry titans to lower its profit forecasts this week, prompting business daily Handelsblatt to declare the "end of the party" for the sector and its 800,000 workers.

High-end competitor BMW says it is following the international situation "more closely than ever".

BMW and Daimler are especially vulnerable, as they face both the threat of US tariffs on their cars and parts shipped from Europe, as well as taxes at the Chinese border on the vehicles they build at massive plants in America.

Meanwhile, Germany's powerful chemical industry federation said last month it is "less optimistic" for this year given the hardening trade rhetoric.

Stumbling start

"Clouds are gathering over the German economy," whose industrial engine "began sputtering at the start of the year," said Ifo macroeconomics chief, Timo Wollmershaeuser.

Growth slowed to 0.3 percent between January and March, half the rate recorded in the previous quarter.

Initially, there were suggestions that short-term factors -- such as a winter flu outbreak, a calendar packed with public holidays and a wave of industrial disputes -- might have been to blame. But weak economic data in

April put paid to such arguments.

Both industrial production and industrial orders -- indicators of future economic performance -- fell, presaging belt-tightening in the months ahead.

"American economic policy is at least partly responsible" for the slowdown, Wollmershaeuser said.

In purely financial terms, there is little risk to Germany from Trump's first move against Europe, tariffs on steel and aluminium imports.

The border duties are expected to knock just 37 million euros off a gross domestic product totalling 3.3 trillion euros.

Uncertainty bites

But investments and exports -- exactly the elements that powered Germany's expansion last year -- are already suffering from "heightened uncertainty", said DIW economist Ferdinand Fichtner.

Many German companies manufacture capital goods such as machine tools that are exported all around the world.

That means when foreign companies decide to delay investment in their plants, German manufacturers' sales slip.

Present trade fears are only a foretaste of what might happen if the US makes good on its threat to tax European car imports.

The move would inflict a five-billion-euro blow on the German economy, or 0.16 percent of GDP, Ifo calculated.

If China also levies taxes on imports of US cars, Daimler and BMW -- the two biggest exporters of cars from America -- could face plunging sales there too.

One strong pillar of the German economy is strong domestic demand, buoyed by unemployment at its lowest levels since the country's reunification in 1990, rising wages and higher public spending, the economists note.

But there, too, politics could threaten growth.

Attempts by Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservative Bavarian coalition partners to force through a tough border policy against refugees threaten to explode the government she spent months cobbling together after tricky September elections.

https://www.thelocal.de/20180622/end-of-the-party-how-trade-conflicts-are-already-sapping-the-german-economy

gfplux

Just a helpful warning to Brexiters.

Do not watch Sky News. They have a balanced view of Brexit with some very unpleasant news and views of how bad Brexit is and will be.

Brexiters should keep to the BBC as there they will not find any criticism of Brexit.

Graham_Devon

gfplux wrote: »

Just a helpful warning to Brexiters.

Do not watch Sky News. They have a balanced view of Brexit with some very unpleasant news and views of how bad Brexit is and will be.

Brexiters should keep to the BBC as there they will not find any criticism of Brexit.

Well that's a blinkered view if ever I did see one.

wunferall

gfplux wrote: »

Just a helpful warning to Brexiters.

Do not watch Sky News. They have a balanced view of Brexit with some very unpleasant news and views of how bad Brexit is and will be.

Brexiters should keep to the BBC as there they will not find any criticism of Brexit.

It must be very difficult for those determined to prove Brexit wrong before it's even happened, as evidenced when resorting to suggestions that the anti-Brexit BBC does not criticise Brexit.
:rotfl:


It's not been a good week for remainers, has it?

The HoP gives Brexit plans the thumbs-up; remainers lies are proven again as the govt. announces plans for increases in The NHS budget; UK households see the fastest income growth for the past 9 years and (surprise) therefore retail sales figures are up.

No wonder there's so much anti-Brexit bluster with little substance from remainers. Their dreams are continually being contradicted by the facts.

wunferall

Thrugelmir wrote: »

One word politics.



That's Daily Mail sensationalism speak. Anybody with any iota of common sene would take a far more pragmatic approach.

Ah. That pretty much rules out huge swathes of the remainer faction in this thread then.

wunferall

gfplux wrote: »

It is two years since the referendum.
That is two years of Uncertainty.
Two years during which the only banked Brexit dividend is in favour of the EU.

In simple accounting Britain is behind where it was in June 2016.

How long before it gets ahead.

Please tell us (and do include your supporting evidence of ) this "Brexit dividend" the EU have garnered, since absolutely nothing has yet been finalised.


Thank you.

Matt_L

gfplux wrote: »

Just a helpful warning to Brexiters.

Do not watch Sky News. They have a balanced view of Brexit with some very unpleasant news and views of how bad Brexit is and will be.

Brexiters should keep to the BBC as there they will not find any criticism of Brexit.

Strange, i watched and only saw some ex-trade commissioner for New Zealand stating that the UK now faced wonderful opportunities now we are leaving the EU and to make the most of those opportunities by sticking to our guns with regard to leaving the SM and CU...