Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

gfplux

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Name me the costs.

As already asked.

And what about the companies who receive benefits from being out of the EU? Are we including those, or ignoring them, as appears to be the case?

Until anyone can provide real costs to being out of the EU to the country, while NOT ignoring real benefits many companies will reap....complaining that figures that are right in front of us shouldn't be counted is hypocrisy in it's finest artform.

Graham I could ask you which benefits to which company’s but I imagine the list will be too long to post here.

Graham_Devon

Herzlos wrote: »

Can you name any benefits to businesses from being out of the EU?
The only one I can think of is a reduction in regulation.

Every single analysis shows Brexit is bad for the economy. All by numbers well in excess of the dividend (and you're right, there's probably a saving of membership fee).

Every job lost, every agency or business moving, because of Brexit will hurt the economy.

Thrown the question back? No probs, I will answer.

While I can't name the benefits specifically, it seems no one can name the disadvantages either, other than stating "lost jobs".

What I would be keen to know is what are these jobs that companies are paying people to do now, that companies won't need people to do once we have left the EU?

Presumably, as a company is paying people today to do these jobs, a service is required. What service will the UK populace stop requiring the minute we leave the EU?

I can't think of any.

I can think of how services may change, and how a gap in the market may arise to deal with things after brexit - therefore companies will exploit them.

But equally, for a company to exploit any gap in the market, they will require people. Therefore, there is your investment.

If you can name any jobs or services that will simply cease once we have left the EU, and won't need replacing with something else, then please, tell me. I will start the ball rolling. We won't need an EU MEP. Theres one lost role. However, I bet we will need someone else to continue discussing such matters with our neighbouring countries. The EU MEP job may be lost, but maybe we will need an ambassador of some sort - already, the job loss is replaced.

Jobs and services may change. Rules and laws may change. But they will still exist, and jobs that are required today, will still be required after the vote, just under a different framework.

If you disagree and loads of people will simply be unemployed, please can you tell me the specifics, or even just the areas of business which you believe will no longer be required that we use today?

Until that point, it seems like a like of head in the sand fear mongering based on little substance.

System

FullFact doing their thing. Seems fair.

https://fullfact.org/europe/does-brexit-dividend-exist/

Certainly a lot more positive than pretty much everyone else.
https://www.google.co.uk/search?biw=1920&bih=947&tbm=nws&ei=H_8pW6HHDqSUgAarkbKAAw&q=brexit+dividend&oq=brexit+dividend&gs_l=psy-ab.3..0.179174.181380.0.181461.17.10.1.6.7.0.74.413.9.9.0....0...1c.1.64.psy-ab..1.16.422...0i13k1.0.0dxRat0ZLsw

Pick a link, they pretty much all say the same.

Herzlos

What jobs will be lost, and not replaced in the UK?

Well, the 2 EU agencies (health standards and something else?) Are moving back to the EU, so they are gone along with any local jobs supported by them. We'll need to produce a local equivalent but it'll be smaller, less efficient and with a lot less visitors staying in hotels and eating in restaurants.

Then there's the businesses that are relocating staff to the EU to stay in their market. We'll still import their stuff, but they won't be replaced here.

Finally there's the businesses that close or just don't start/expand because of concerns about Brexit and trading conditions.


On the plus side; we can lower standards for stuff not being sold to the EU.

iro

Brexit will inject a much needed 'dynamic' element to the UK economy.

Too many 'zombie' firms just going through the motions.

Graham_Devon

Herzlos wrote: »

Well, the 2 EU agencies (health standards and something else?) Are moving back to the EU, so they are gone along with any local jobs supported by them. We'll need to produce a local equivalent but it'll be smaller, less efficient and with a lot less visitors staying in hotels and eating in restaurants.

Agreed, this will be lost - but of course we will have our own equivalent. This one infact is pure UK investment, as EU workers are pulled and the newly created role employs UK based employees. So this is a positive for our country in terms of employment. understand these people who return may have got a haircut in the local economy etc, but that really is macro level stuff.

It may well be smaller, but not sure we can write it off as less efficient a few years before the service is in place. Not sure the EU is know for it's efficiency!

Then there's the businesses that are relocating staff to the EU to stay in their market. We'll still import their stuff, but they won't be replaced here.

Yer, not sure we are talking huge numbers here. There seem to have been many empty threats from companies over the last 2 years. No action though.

Finally there's the businesses that close or just don't start/expand because of concerns about Brexit and trading conditions.

And theres the business that has already invested as they see the UK as the future. Rolls Royce for instance are investing here around their newer electronic engines. Honda have invested here already. Nissan have invested here since the brexit vote.

I can't remember the name of the company now, but the aero industry company that threatened to pull all jobs in the UK if we vote brexit (they made the wings for planes) - they have just invested in the UK and will build MORE parts of the plane in the UK, regardless of brexit.

Ultimately, while, yes, there will be losses and some people will feel that, there will be, and has been, opportunities.

The last however many pages are focusing purely on the losses, while not even allowing head space for any opportunities.

Herzlos

Graham_Devon wrote: »

Agreed, this will be lost - but of course we will have our own equivalent. This one infact is pure UK investment, as EU workers are pulled and the newly created role employs UK based employees. So this is a positive for our country in terms of employment. understand these people who return may have got a haircut in the local economy etc, but that really is macro level stuff.

You're missing the details though. The UK equivalents will be smaller (less staff employed), and don't necessarily need to be British staff. They won't be the hub for interaction anymore, so the dozens of visitors a day that were pumping large amounts of money (hotel stays, taxis, restaurants, coffee shops, shopping, airports, etc) into the local economy will now be visiting an office and the EU and spending money there instead.

This office will likely also spend a small fortune visiting the EU equivalent in the EU.
It will also be less efficient due to economies of scale.


So it's relatively small, but the cost to the economy could easily be in the low millions annually.

Yer, not sure we are talking huge numbers here. There seem to have been many empty threats from companies over the last 2 years. No action though.

It doesn't really take large numbers to overtake the "Brexit dividend" though. The banking staff will likely be well above average earners. Factories moving will potentially employ hundreds or thousands.

And theres the business that has already invested as they see the UK as the future. Rolls Royce for instance are investing here around their newer electronic engines. Honda have invested here already. Nissan have invested here since the brexit vote.

The same Rolls Royce that just announced a loss of 4,600 UK jobs in engine manufacture, that are being moved to the EU?
The same Nissan that's been threatening to leave the UK if the government leave the single market?

I can't remember the name of the company now, but the aero industry company that threatened to pull all jobs in the UK if we vote brexit (they made the wings for planes) - they have just invested in the UK and will build MORE parts of the plane in the UK, regardless of brexit.

Possibly like Nissan, who were going to leave but then invested after a private meeting at Downing Street - they were promised something that made them want to stay - either single market access, or the government picking up the tab. We'll either need to keep those commitments or they may leave anyway.

The last however many pages are focusing purely on the losses, while not even allowing head space for any opportunities.

I've been asking for information about opportunities for 2 years now, and no-one can provide me with anything. We want to know what's good about it, but all we're actually seeing is bad.


So what opportunities are we gaining from Brexit? Where are all these new jobs coming from that'll replace the ones we already know are leaving?

Graham_Devon

Herzlos wrote: »

You're missing the details though. The UK equivalents will be smaller (less staff employed), and don't necessarily need to be British staff. They won't be the hub for interaction anymore, so the dozens of visitors a day that were pumping large amounts of money (hotel stays, taxis, restaurants, coffee shops, shopping, airports, etc) into the local economy will now be visiting an office and the EU and spending money there instead.

I have to say I'm very confused now.

1. You state EU residents will be pulled from the UK. You agree that the service, in some shape or forum, though likely smaller will need to continue. These jobs will be open to residents of the UK which isn't the case now. Therefore this ultimately increases jobs for UK citizens.

2. One of the biggest issues with brexit was freedom to live and work in a country. Yet you are now stating above, people from the EU may still be able to work these jobs as a way to claim the newly created jobs may not benefit UK citizens (you say they won't necessarily be people from the UK). So what's the problem? You can't have it both ways and complain of isolation and then claim any investment opportuinites will be open to all?

3. The hub for interaction is such a macro based level that it's pointless discussing it. Another hub could easily pop or - or not. It's such a local level issue, it can't be discussed on a nationwide basis. Amazon is also investing in the UK despite brexit - this will bring new hubs of interaction, so it's pointless splitting hairs at such a minute level.

4. The new Heathrow runway - I bring this in as it appears, on the whole to have upset remainers - stating there is no point expanding if we are to leave the EU, environment etc etc. That is the biggest hub of activity imaginable. While I don't specifically state you have said this, there has been a massive argument on the guardian for several days now, mainly from remain supporters building cases not to go ahead with the runway. Now we are worried about a hub of what, 20-30 people in Bridlington or wherever it may be and how a pub may sell a few pints a year less?

Sorry, but we are going around in circles here.

I can't name specific examples of job creation once we have left the EU. Thankfully, you did name one for me when attempting to show job losses. I have only ever said the jobs that need doing today will need doing tomorrow. I don't see how we can simply stop doing jobs - unless they weren't required in the first place.

I have never claimed to be able to show specific gains or losses. You are suggesting you know exactly how much money will be lost therefore I simply asked for examples.

spikyone

Herzlos wrote: »

The same Rolls Royce that just announced a loss of 4,600 UK jobs in engine manufacture, that are being moved to the EU?

That's an "interesting" re-writing of the news. Nothing is being moved to the EU. In fact it's only 3000 jobs being lost in the UK with others being lost elsewhere. The majority of job losses are cutting fat from the company - administration and middle-management, which makes up a surprisingly large part of the employee base of an engineering/manufacturing company.
They are also cutting certain types of engineers to suit business demand, but taking on other types of engineers with different expertise.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/jun/14/rolls-royce-cut-jobs-britain

It does nobody any favours to present this type of news as somehow related to Brexit.

Graham_Devon

ilovehouses wrote: »

The governments own leaked analysis ran a number of scenarios. I can't be bothered to find the link (it's been posted here) but from memory we'd lose around 7% - 8% of GDP growth over the next 12 years. i.e. instead of GDP growing by 25% in that period it'll only growth about 18%.

That was toilet paper and was leaked as a scare story.

My belief anyway. Every projection the government gave for immediately after the vote didn't come to pass, so I can't trust them with this either.

Since that projection, things have already changed, which has nothign to do with brexit - but more to do with oil prices and US interest rate rises. The path they suggested is already screwed up through external worldwide forces. So we know for a fact it can't be right by 2030 as it's already wrong.

As said, Cameron and Osborne went as soon as we voted to leave as they knew they couldn't stick to what they had said. The emergency budget, for example - utter tosh.