Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

buglawton

vivatifosi wrote: »

If it's a three way carve up with the UK dominating financial services, how does the UK benefit from going to the WTO, which is about manufacturing rather than services?

That article recognised there are only 2 real options: An ersatz single market Brexit where the UK loses its only main advantage - its financial lobby. Or a new life in WTO where we have the freedom to do new deals in a huge world out there beyond the EU. Which would eventually bring the EU back to the table to do quid pro quo deals anyway. How else will we remain one of its biggest customers?

Yes, one is the predictable past, the other an unpredictable future.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

buglawton wrote: »

a new life in WTO where we have the freedom to do new deals in a huge world out there beyond the EU.

:rotfl:

This wishful thinking of the Brexiteers where under WTO we'll do wonderful trade deals with faraway countries on the other side of the planet that will miraculously overcome the hugely reduced trade with the worlds largest single market right on our doorstep is really just complete and utter nonsense.

Or as actual economists point out...

leaving the single market will be associated with a long term reduction in total UK trade of between 22% and 30%, depending on whether the UK concludes an FTA with the EU or not. The estimated increases in trade from concluding FTAs with all of the BRIICS, are much smaller at just over 2%, while concluding FTAs with all the Anglo-American countries (USA, Canada, Australia and New Zealand) is associated with a long-term increase in total UK trade of less than 3%.

This stark difference reflects that the single market is a very deep and comprehensive trade agreement aimed at reducing non-tariff barriers, while most non-EU FTAs seem to be quite ineffective at reducing the non-tariff barriers that are important for services trade.

https://www.niesr.ac.uk/blog/will-new-trade-deals-soften-blow-hard-brexit

kabayiri

ilovehouses wrote: »

...
I'm hoping when the ultras are banging on about the EU after next March most people will give them a wide berth given we'll have left the EU. I bet Farage et al have loads of stunts planned - they need to be careful they don't give a 'job done' impression.

Why?

All I can see is many more opportunities for disruption and lack of unity.

Brexit set high expectations amongst a lot of very ordinary voters. So why do you think they will be happy with failure?

The only question is whether they give up with voting altogether, or gravitate to positions on the outer edges of the political mainstream.

Both Labour and Conservatives are unhappy coallitions of convenience right now.

Moby

iro wrote: »

A new election would seem to be the only way to solve this issue.

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/10007/comment-page-1#comments
This weeks YouGov poll. Remember last week you were very happy to tell us about the 7 point lead the tories had then.;)

Thrugelmir

kabayiri wrote: »

Brexit set high expectations amongst a lot of very ordinary voters. So why do you think they will be happy with failure?

Peoples expectations were very undemanding. The EU project isn't exactly delivering currently either (depending on your age/where you live). Dogged by differing views on a number of issues. Likewise internal infighting at Government level. Shows how difficult it is to keep 700 million people happy at the same time.

buglawton

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

...This wishful thinking of the Brexiteers where under FTO we'll do wonderful trade deals with faraway countries on the other side of the planet that will miraculously overcome the hugely reduced trade with the worlds largest single market right on our doorstep is really just complete and utter...

FTO? Im not sure what that acronym is. Free trade deals I assume. They dont need to come into it, though could be icing on the cake later.

WTO rules first, it works already for a long list of nations.

Herzlos

Almost no country, if any, does the bulk of it's trade via the WTO. That most use it for some trade isn't telling the whole story.

Moby

What people neglect to consider is if we revert to WTO that is bound to drive down working conditions. We'll be competing in a harsher environment.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

buglawton wrote: »

WTO rules first, it works already for a long list of nations.

I can't think of any, other than maybe North Korea, that trade only on WTO rules.

Even the countries that the EU doesn't have a full FTA with, are covered by some 1200 or so separate bilateral agreements.

So back to the real issues, rather than fairy tales, as actual economists point out...

leaving the single market will be associated with a long term reduction in total UK trade of between 22% and 30%, depending on whether the UK concludes an FTA with the EU or not.

The estimated increases in trade from concluding FTAs with all of the BRIICS, are much smaller at just over 2%, while concluding FTAs with all the Anglo-American countries (USA, Canada, Australia and New Zealand) is associated with a long-term increase in total UK trade of less than 3%.

This stark difference reflects that the single market is a very deep and comprehensive trade agreement aimed at reducing non-tariff barriers, while most non-EU FTAs seem to be quite ineffective at reducing the non-tariff barriers that are important for services trade.

https://www.niesr.ac.uk/blog/will-new-trade-deals-soften-blow-hard-brexit

Rinoa

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

leaving the single market will be associated with a long term reduction in total UK trade of between 22% and 30%, depending on whether the UK concludes an FTA with the EU or not.

Falls in trade is not necessarily the problem you infer.

There is nothing the EU makes that we can't make ouirselves.

Ireland sells us about 300 tons of Irish cheddar per year. We sell them around 300 tons of UK cheddar each year. When WTO tariffs are imposed, both countries will no doubt consume their own cheddar.

Trade in cheddar will fall by 100% but no one will notice.