Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

ukcarper

Filo25 wrote: »

What solution do you think we should be working towards?

If the UK can figure out a magical solution to the Irish border problem then options may open up, but that was always going to be a big issue, exacerbated by the current parliamentary arithmetic.

If May wasn't dependent on DUP votes she could probably go for special status on NI and move on, Tories wouldn't be happy on it but would probably live with it as the price to pay for a Canada style deal (they would prefer that to alternatives which would force the rest of the UK to closer cooperation with Europe).

First I think it's impossible to find a solution to Irish border issue until trade deal is done. I voted remain so I can see that it will not be possible to leave arrangements as they, but I also realise we cannot come to a deal that involves accepting the four freedoms and the complete jurisdiction of EU courts. I don't think it will be possible to come to a deal that will fully satisfy both sides but that's what accepting a compromise means.

By the way if I thought leave meant staying in single market I might well have voted leave.

Filo25

Graham_Devon wrote: »

As someone who voted brexit, I have sympathy with this.

We were asked a question, we answered. If we leave in name only, technically, the referendum has been honoured.

However, I do feel politically, it will be a poor show, and could be seen as a stitch up. I don't think it would do wonders for trust in the political system, and reckon UKIP, or similar would have it's profile raised again. Which would be 5 or 10 years wasted really, as we would be back to square one.

I have sympathy with that view as well, it is never pretty when people feel let down by the democratic process, the conduct of the referendum by both sides really did British democracy no credit at all,

The problem was that people were sold a line that breaking free of all things EU would be pretty much economically painless, as they needed us more than we needed them, unfortunately that was as much nonsense as some of Osborne's more hyperbolic statements on areas like having an emergency budget..

People were genuinely led to believe the could have all or nearly all of the economic benefits of the EU with none of the obligations and I think a lot still believe that so they just think they are being let down by a weak government which is selling then out, not helped by some more irresponsible politicians and journalists continuing to bluster in this manner.

The reality of exit negotiation is looking a bit different however.

If a majority of people genuinely are happy to pay the economic (and potential security in N Ireland) price to get the hardest of hard Brexit then from my point of view sadly that is probably what we should be doing, I don;'t think that is the case though, plus no government wants to be seen as being responsible for willingly starting a recession, that tends to have political consequences.

Realistically whatever the outcome I think a lot of people are going to end up feeling let down, and the political fallout will carry on for years to come, that is the problem with offering the public something that seemingly can't be delivered.

kabayiri

Filo25 wrote: »

...
The problem was that people were sold a line that breaking free of all things EU would be pretty much economically painless, as they needed us more than we needed them, unfortunately that was as much nonsense as some of Osborne's more hyperbolic statements on areas like having an emergency budget..

People were genuinely led to believe the could have all or nearly all of the economic benefits of the EU with none of the obligations and I think a lot still believe that so they just think they are being let down by a weak government which is selling then out, not helped by some more irresponsible politicians and journalists continuing to bluster in this manner.
...

All anyone was voting for was an option sold to us by the campaigners.

There were no discussion on tactics; on a GE; on Cameron leaving his post directly after; on leaks and other political shenanigans.

And yet, it's amazing how the narrative says that it was all the voter's fault.

It's a masterful transfer of blame. I'm not surprised they advocate asking the people on the final deal. It's the perfect cop out to a shambolic showing from all political sides.

Graham_Devon

I think it can be delivered. And if I'm honest, although not a UKIP voter at any point in my life, feel that a party such as UKIP would have it all wrapped up by now.

The problem here is that all 3 main parties are against Brexit. So the political will simply isn't there.

It was right to offer the referendum.

What was wrong was offering it under the assumption remain would win comfortably and UKIP would be resided to the history bin.

Both our government and the EU officials had done absolutely no research on what leave actually meant. Both parties were smugly assuming remain would win it. The doom laden threats ONLY started once the polls showed how close it was. Panic set in.

We are now left with the pieces to deal with, with governments who can't, and in some respects, won't deal with it.

UKIP though - under the lead of Farage. Whatever you think of the bloke, he'd have run rings around the EU and have us all sorted by now.

Everything is possible. The US voted in trump for goodness sake! He'd also have it all sorted by now. At least the bits they can sort - the Lords on the other hand? They would ensure we suffer for years.

Filo25

kabayiri wrote: »

All anyone was voting for was an option sold to us by the campaigners.

There were no discussion on tactics; on a GE; on Cameron leaving his post directly after; on leaks and other political shenanigans.

And yet, it's amazing how the narrative says that it was all the voter's fault.

It's a masterful transfer of blame. I'm not surprised they advocate asking the people on the final deal. It's the perfect cop out to a shambolic showing from all political sides.

Agreed

It was indeed a truly awful campaign from both sides, I'm not even saying it would have been a different result if people had been more honest/realistic, nobody knows the answer to that as there was no shortage of over the top scaremongering from the Remain side either.

mayonnaise

Graham_Devon wrote: »

And if I'm honest, although not a UKIP voter at any point in my life...

Not being very honest there, Graham.

Graham_Devon wrote:

I voted UKIP in the EU elections

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.php?p=65626127&postcount=103

Filo25

Graham_Devon wrote: »

I think it can be delivered. And if I'm honest, although not a UKIP voter at any point in my life, feel that a party such as UKIP would have it all wrapped up by now.

The problem here is that all 3 main parties are against Brexit. So the political will simply isn't there.

It was right to offer the referendum.

What was wrong was offering it under the assumption remain would win comfortably and UKIP would be resided to the history bin.

Both our government and the EU officials had done absolutely no research on what leave actually meant. Both parties were smugly assuming remain would win it. The doom laden threats ONLY started once the polls showed how close it was. Panic set in.

We are now left with the pieces to deal with, with governments who can't, and in some respects, won't deal with it.

UKIP though - under the lead of Farage. Whatever you think of the bloke, he'd have run rings around the EU and have us all sorted by now.

Everything is possible. The US voted in trump for goodness sake! He'd also have it all sorted by now. At least the bits they can sort - the Lords on the other hand? They would ensure we suffer for years.

I would say the Tories are divided on Brexit rather than pro-Remain, Labour are largely pro-Remain but the leadership are Brexiteers so hardly a unanimous set of Remainers

Farage is great at posturing and that's about it, what did UKIP do with their mandate in the European parliament, lined their own pockets and that's about it as far as I can see.

It plays well to the domestic audience would probably have the country in a jingoistic march to WTO by now, followed by economic shambles and rejoining the EU on worse terms within 10 years.

The EU is at heart a rules based organisation, it has to be to keep the disparate interests of the nations together, there is no great secret deal that would have been offered if we push harder, there might be a bit of flexibility around one of the models but that is it.

UKIP's red lines would have left us looking at WTO, I don't see how that could easily have been avoided.

Graham_Devon

mayonnaise wrote: »

Not being very honest there, Graham.



https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.php?p=65626127&postcount=103

I don't really count the EU elections as a general election. But congrats to you running off and doing a search.

As I voted to leave the EU, it's hardly a surprise I voted UKIP in EU elections.

Notice you didn't quote the full post though. If you had, you would note my stance has not changed 4 years later. Go back 3 pages, on this thread and just yesterday you will find me saying the same thing.

I also got one of the three things on my wishlist for voting UKIP in the EU elections - just 2 more to go.

Thrugelmir

Filo25 wrote: »

If anyone wants to check what model of Brexit voters really want

It's not a choice. It's a negotiation. Seems to be constantly overlooked in the internal bickering . Even once there's agreement between the parties. Another National entity could put a spanner in the works. If there's an objection to a particular facet. Thereby voting it down

kabayiri

Filo25 wrote: »

...
It plays well to the domestic audience would probably have the country in a jingoistic march to WTO by now, followed by economic shambles and rejoining the EU on worse terms within 10 years.
...

WTO will make some people here money.

Let's not pretend that it is universally bad.

If you're one of those, you're entitled to prefer it.