Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

Herzlos

westernpromise wrote: »

This was exactly my issue: Remain in what?

We hear a lot from Remain about the NHS / £350 million "lie" but we hear less about the logically identical fiction that we could Remain in something completely static that Remain would get to define.

What we'd really be Remaining in would be a trajectory to integration into a German-led Europe. Now if that's a good idea, and it might be, Remain needed to stand up, say so, and explain why we should abolish the UK. History tells us that this has never happened - what usually happens instead is that some idea is mooted, Remainers avant la lettre scoff at it and say it's just an idea that'll never happen, then we're told it's all been agreed and it's too late, and then it happens. I rather think the reason the dirty proles had the bad manners to vote Leave was that a fair few were sufficiently pi55ed off by decades of this that they thought they'd bu99er it up.

I didn't vote at all because both campaigns were so poor and so mendacious, but I suspect that a big part of Remain's credibility problem was that its cause has often previously been advanced by trickery or bad faith - referendums ignored, treaties voted down being renamed and reintroduced anyway, the likelihood of mass immigration denied, and so on. If there had ever been a "Let's abolish the UK and become a province of Germany" campaign, in which this goal was honestly admitted to and argued for, it might have been different. Instead it is always denied that this is the goal at the same time as everything the EU does is clearly designed to achieve it.

This being so, not many people were going to believe Remain then or now when they say that Leave lied.

That's getting a bit into tinfoil hat territory - the EU isn't going to turn into the 4th Reich and no-one is going to lose any regional identity (the Romans couldn't do it to us with genocide, the Europeans aren't going to do it with beurocracy. They even have a department to fund regional culture). No-one is suggesting we turn the UK into a German province, and you need to evaluate your news sources if you think it has anything above a 0% probability.



We'll likely continue with closer integration, because it makes so many of the things we rely on in the modern world easier.



It'll save us a fortune on all of the safety agencies (nuclear, air, food, enviroment, and so on), save us a fortune on satellite based security (Gallileo) and allow us to continue to prosper.


Given all we know about Brexit and how little of the promises will come to fruition (I think we're at "blue passports"), how do you sell that to the public again?

kabayiri

Herzlos wrote: »

Remain a full member of the EU, with a seat at the table guiding direction and taking advantage of the economic, scientific and security benefits of membership.
...

Suppose the EU did just cancel the A50 process and return to some kind of status quo.

How do you think politicians with an agenda will paint this to the 17.4 million who voted Leave?

A betrayal perhaps? A crisis in democracy.

UKIP, a ramshackle bunch, attracted 4 million votes in 2015. Imagine what a right of centre party could achieve with more structure, and cause celebre.

I reckon you are opening the door to right wing politics. Hey, but if that's an acceptable price to pay, it is valid, just say so.

westernpromise

Herzlos wrote: »

That's getting a bit into tinfoil hat territory - the EU isn't going to turn into the 4th Reich and no-one is going to lose any regional identity (the Romans couldn't do it to us with genocide, the Europeans aren't going to do it with beurocracy. They even have a department to fund regional culture). No-one is suggesting we turn the UK into a German province, and you need to evaluate your news sources if you think it has anything above a 0% probability.



We'll likely continue with closer integration, because it makes so many of the things we rely on in the modern world easier.



It'll save us a fortune on all of the safety agencies (nuclear, air, food, enviroment, and so on), save us a fortune on satellite based security (Gallileo) and allow us to continue to prosper.


Given all we know about Brexit and how little of the promises will come to fruition (I think we're at "blue passports"), how do you sell that to the public again?

In the wake of a Remain vote, the argument from the EU would have been that as the EU is all about abolishing nation states and replacing them with the EU, and we all knew that perfectly well, and as we had voted Remain, the UK would now be obliged to adopt the entire federalist agenda. This might include requirements for the UK to

• hand its UN security council seat over to the EU
• hand control of its armed forces and nuclear deterrent over to the EU
• return Gibraltar to Spain
• adopt the Euro and downgrade the BoE's remit to implementing ECB policy
• implement a Tobin tax on financial transactions in the City of London

No? In a world where we had voted Remain, how would those not have happened? several have already been proposed.

Herzlos

westernpromise wrote: »

In the wake of a Remain vote, the argument from the EU would have been that as the EU is all about abolishing nation states and replacing them with the EU, and we all knew that perfectly well, and as we had voted Remain, the UK would now be obliged to adopt the entire federalist agenda. This might include requirements for the UK to

• hand its UN security council seat over to the EU
• hand control of its armed forces and nuclear deterrent over to the EU
• return Gibraltar to Spain
• adopt the Euro and downgrade the BoE's remit to implementing ECB policy
• implement a Tobin tax on financial transactions in the City of London

No? In a world where we had voted Remain, how would those not have happened? several have already been proposed.

Can you show any citations? I'm not aware of any of that in anything close to the way you're claiming.

Herzlos

kabayiri wrote: »

Suppose the EU did just cancel the A50 process and return to some kind of status quo.

How do you think politicians with an agenda will paint this to the 17.4 million who voted Leave?

A betrayal perhaps? A crisis in democracy.

UKIP, a ramshackle bunch, attracted 4 million votes in 2015. Imagine what a right of centre party could achieve with more structure, and cause celebre.

I reckon you are opening the door to right wing politics. Hey, but if that's an acceptable price to pay, it is valid, just say so.

The government would need to pledge to use the powers it already has to solve the problems people thinking leaving the EU will solve, and to engage in a thorough consultation to find out why people voted leave and try to address the issues and not the symptoms.

But let's face it, somewhere like half of those that voted to leave will be upset anyway because we left too much or not enough.

What does the government plan on doing for the 48.1% who voted to remain? I think you're applying a double standard.

"We know you voted to leave the EU, however after 2 years of vigorous investigation into doing so we don't believe it's in anyone's best interests to leave. The financial cost would be excessive and there's no alternative that isn't damaging. We understand people have good reason to want to leave and we'll look into addressing those concerns whilst remaining in the EU ".
"The referendum was too close and too unclear as to what was wanted. We don't feel it's in anyone's best interests to press on without first identifying what's best for the country

It'll be the end of the Tories for a while and cos a lot of upset. But then Brexit will have the same impact. I think they'll stall another year or 2 until the pu lid mood has clearly changed and pull the plug. It's the only way to keep their money and power.

I think the disaster of Brexit will have killed off all but the most fervent of the right wing for a while. I can't see UKIP recovering even if May unwind Brexit.

kabayiri

Herzlos wrote: »

...
What does the government plan on doing for the 48.1% who voted to remain? I think you're applying a double standard.
...

Actually, I'm a realist....in that I say you look out for your interests, and I look out for mine.

I don't mind people being honest. It's the sneaky ones who pretend to agree with you, those we should watch.

But let's drop the apple pie n cream nonsense with the EU inviting us back with open arms. It would be just as disruptive.

.string.

It's by no means a given that those who voted Remain would vote to return and it's naive to think that "return" would be to the UK being in the same situation that it was before the referendum. I'll go further, I would claim it is dishonest to advocate returning without addressing what the UK would return to and what would be the differences.

The same goes in spades to advocating the 1/2 in, 1/2 out approach of staying in thrall to the Single Market.

.string.

Restricting the imagination to two Brexiteers options, a) Partnership and b) MaxTech, the next logical step is for the compromise of a) morphing into b), especially since the EU itself will inevitably move towards b) as time goes on.

Herzlos

.string. wrote: »

It's by no means a given that those who voted Remain would vote to return and it's naive to think that "return" would be to the UK being in the same situation that it was before the referendum. I'll go further, I would claim it is dishonest to advocate returning without addressing what the UK would return to and what would be the differences.

The same goes in spades to advocating the 1/2 in, 1/2 out approach of staying in thrall to the Single Market.

No one has tried to claim we could re-join on the same terms we left. It'll definitely be a worse deal

Herzlos

kabayiri wrote: »

Actually, I'm a realist....in that I say you look out for your interests, and I look out for mine.

I don't mind people being honest. It's the sneaky ones who pretend to agree with you, those we should watch.

But let's drop the apple pie n cream nonsense with the EU inviting us back with open arms. It would be just as disruptive.

I don't think anything can be as disruptive as leaving.