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Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5
Comments
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HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »...
The idea that Robots will take our jobs and nobody will have to work is fantasist nonsense.
....
Honestly, Hamish, back in 1990 did you imagine that China would make as many of the world goods as it does?
I didn't think the change would happen as fast as it does. Anybody who pinned their future on manufacturing here was in for a bit of a shock.
So why should we be any wiser in predicting the next revolution in work?0 -
Costs the UK £3000 to provide for each immigrant on minimum wage.
Evidence and link to source please.
As that sounds like an incredibly bogus claim.“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
Hamish does quote a 50 year period. I'm sure we can all envisage jobs which were around in the UK 50 years ago, which are all but a memory now.
And many more jobs which were unheard of and uninvented 50 years ago, but which are commonplace today.
I don't disagree that technology can be temporarily disruptive - but there is not a single shred of evidence or historical precedent for technology permanently diminishing the number of jobs in society.
It has never happened. In the entirety of human history. Despite repeated Chicken Little warnings to the contrary every time new technology came along.“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »And many more jobs which were unheard of and uninvented 50 years ago, but which are commonplace today.
I don't disagree that technology can be temporarily disruptive - but there is not a single shred of evidence or historical precedent for technology permanently diminishing the number of jobs in society.
It has never happened. In the entirety of human history. Despite repeated Chicken Little warnings to the contrary every time new technology came along.
For the vast majority of human history, the idea of labour and locality have been interlinked.
It was never a given that this relationship would continue. Even if new jobs are created (which I agree with), in this interconnected world there is absolutely no guarantee that they come here.
The UK alone has been responsible for creating tens of thousands of jobs...modern jobs....in call centres in India and elsewhere.0 -
HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »No it isn't.
We haven't bred at replacement rate for 50 years - the average age of death today is 78 - the births versus deaths figure today tells you about something that happened 78 years ago - and something about today - but nothing whatsoever about the last 50 years.
We've been hearing that same tired old tripe for hundreds of years - and yet there are more people employed today than there have ever been despite hundreds of years worth of technological advances.
The idea that Robots will take our jobs and nobody will have to work is fantasist nonsense.
If it ever does happen - then by all means cut immigration then.
Until that point - we have to gear up now for the reality that in 20 years time there will be a million fewer 50-54 year olds available to the workforce than there are today - and many more millions fewer throughout all the other age brackets.
That means we need mass immigration for the foreseeable future.
50-54 year olds today will still be working then, it will all balance out. House prices are toast though Hamish, you do realise that, robots or no robots.0 -
The UK alone has been responsible for creating tens of thousands of jobs...modern jobs....in call centres in India and elsewhere.
And yet the UK now has a record high number of people in employment and more vacancies than dole claimants.
And all that with mass migration and outsourcing of jobs to India and rampant technological advances over the last few decades.
Honestly kabs - you're flogging a dead horse here - reality proves you are wrong about this today and has also proven every other technofantasist wrong throughout the whole of recorded history.
If that changes in the future - fine - cut migration.
Until then we simply cannot afford to take the risk as being wrong would be disastrous - and every single person who has made the claim of technology meaning fewer jobs throughout history has been wrong.“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »Evidence and link to source please.
As that sounds like an incredibly bogus claim.
Those on minimum wage don't pay income tax. Simply receiving housing benefit after 3 months would be more than £3000, even in Chesterfield. Then there's child allowance, tax credits, free use of NHS, schools, etc.
You don't need to be a mathematician.If I don't reply to your post,
you're probably on my ignore list.0 -
Those on minimum wage don't pay income tax. Simply receiving housing benefit after 3 months would be more than £3000, even in Chesterfield. Then there's child allowance, tax credits, free use of NHS, schools, etc.
You don't need to be a mathematician.
You are admitting you have no evidence or proof?
So again - can you provide a link to a source which demonstrates the average EU migrant on minimum wage costs the UK £3000 each please.
As to be fair, your side of the argument has made a lot of outlandish claims on here today and been definitively proved wrong each and every time so far.“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
There are technology disruptors. It's not just progression.
Self drive cars are coming. Take note minicab drivers.
Machines can now understand simple questions. Many of those were answered in person in the past, and via call centres today.
Hamish does quote a 50 year period. I'm sure we can all envisage jobs which were around in the UK 50 years ago, which are all but a memory now.
It will only take a few accidents where people die screaming as a robotic car ploughs through someone`s front room because it`s signal got scrambled by their big telly or something to kill the self drive thing dead. There is something comforting about taking control yourself, or knowing that someone like you is in control, whatever the stats say about safety, and if people wanted to be driven around they would be leaving their cars at home now to take the bus, but they don`t?0 -
Crashy_Time wrote: »It will only take a few accidents where people die screaming as a robotic car ploughs through someone`s front room because it`s signal got scrambled by their big telly or something to kill the self drive thing dead. There is something comforting about taking control yourself, or knowing that someone like you is in control, whatever the stats say about safety, and if people wanted to be driven around they would be leaving their cars at home now to take the bus, but they don`t?
Introduction of a lot of new technology has often been risky.
I remember a robot system where the head was travelling at 9m/s...until it impacted with the operator's head. Not the nicest way to go.
It delayed but didn't stop the introduction.0
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