Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

kabayiri

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

...
[STRIKE]The UK [/STRIKE]Scotland is virtually empty.
...

Fixt that for you

London does seem to have green space but nobody seems to be listening to your ideas on building houses on this space.

It seems people value a bit of space. (but not quite to the level of moving to the frozen North).

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Enterprise_1701C wrote: »

I think we are doing fine breeding at replacement rate.

.

:rotfl:

You're not having a good day with this stuff really.....

Do you want to have a think about why your post is incorrect or do you need someone to point it out to you?

Enterprise_1701C

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

:rotfl:

You're not having a good day with this stuff really.....

Do you want to have a think about why your post is incorrect or do you need someone to point it out to you?

Ok, mistyped the year, not all the figures are available for 2017 yet.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Enterprise_1701C wrote: »

Ok, mistyped the year, not all the figures are available for 2017 yet.

Nope - that's not it....

I'll give you a few clues....

We haven't bred at replacement rate in 50 years.

What is today's average life expectancy? (or average age of death if it helps to think of it that way)

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Or if we narrow this down a bit so as to make it easier to understand the problem... As so few seem to get it.

- There are currently almost 5 million 50-54 year olds in the tail end of their working career approaching retirement.

- There are just 4 million 30-34 year olds in the middle of their career.

- But there are only 3.5 million 10-14 year olds in school today.

- In every single age bracket for the last 5 decades there are fewer people than there were 5 decades ago.

We have not bred at replacement rate since around 1970.

The economy is growing, more jobs are being created, but there are fewer and fewer young people to take those jobs on.

kabayiri

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

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We haven't bred at replacement rate in 50 years.
...

Well, by your own admission you haven't bred at replacement rate Hamish.

Don't accuse us all of 'not keeping our end up' !

Apparently, there are 3 billion people on the planet living on the barest of income. I don't think finding surplus labour, even temporary, is really a problem.

Enterprise_1701C

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Or if we narrow this down a bit so as to make it easier to understand the problem... As so few seem to get it.

There are currently almost 5 million 50-54 year olds in the tail end of their working career approaching retirement.

There are just 4 million 30-34 year olds in the middle of their career.

But there are only 3.5 million 10-14 year olds in school today.

In every single age bracket for the last 5 decades there are fewer people than there were 5 decades ago.

We have not bred at replacement rate since around 1970.

The economy is growing, more jobs are being created, but there are fewer and fewer young people to take those jobs on.

If you wanted to take the long way round you should have said.

Putting it straight down the middle more births than deaths is more than replacement rate.

As for jobs being created, technology is moving on too and those jobs will soon by done by some form of technology.

Rinoa

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Why are you so obsessed with immigration?

We haven't bred at the replacement rate for 5 decades, not even for a single year, and we don't import enough people even to replace the ones we failed to breed.

We need more immigration - not less - and before you say 'robots' that's nice and all but unemployment is already at 40 year lows and the UK is starved of workers already.

When and if the robots come along at some distant point in the future we can look again at migration then. Until that happens we need more real live human workers today.

So, Mike Ashley (of Newcastle United fame) has a distribution depot 5 miles down the road from us in Chesterfield. And very impressive it is too with over 2000 staff, virtually all East European, working on zero hour contracts for minimum wage.

They of course qualify for benefits, child care, child allowance, tax credits and housing benefit after 3 months. Costs the UK £3000 to provide for each immigrant on minimum wage.

Mike Ashley buys his tat from China, distributes it far and wide and, thanks to the generosity of the British taxpayer is a multimillionaire.

Hamish. Would you like to enlighten us as to how this helps UK PLC.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Enterprise_1701C wrote: »

Putting it straight down the middle more births than deaths is more than replacement rate.

No it isn't.

We haven't bred at replacement rate for 50 years - the average age of death today is 78 - the births versus deaths figure today tells you about something that happened 78 years ago - and something about today - but nothing whatsoever about the last 50 years.

As for jobs being created, technology is moving on too and those jobs will soon by done by some form of technology.

We've been hearing that same tired old tripe for hundreds of years - and yet there are more people employed today than there have ever been despite hundreds of years worth of technological advances.

The idea that Robots will take our jobs and nobody will have to work is fantasist nonsense.

If it ever does happen - then by all means cut immigration then.

Until that point - we have to gear up now for the reality that in 20 years time there will be a million fewer 50-54 year olds available to the workforce than there are today - and many more millions fewer throughout all the other age brackets.

That means we need mass immigration for the foreseeable future.

kabayiri

Enterprise_1701C wrote: »

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As for jobs being created, technology is moving on too and those jobs will soon by done by some form of technology.

There are technology disruptors. It's not just progression.

Self drive cars are coming. Take note minicab drivers.

Machines can now understand simple questions. Many of those were answered in person in the past, and via call centres today.

Hamish does quote a 50 year period. I'm sure we can all envisage jobs which were around in the UK 50 years ago, which are all but a memory now.