Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

ess0two

gfplux wrote: »

I have been waiting for a Brexiter to post this.

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-41884203
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"Overall vehicle sales fell by more than 12%, marking the seventh consecutive month of declines.
The SMMT blamed a drop in business and consumer confidence for the fall.
So far this year, new vehicle registrations are down by 4.6%."
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As a remainer I say this is bad news.
A Brexiter will use the figures to show Britain is really sticking it to those German car makers and it is all part of the "cunning plan" to get German Industry to force the EU to give Britain a great trade deal.

Actually I don't know what "a great trade deal" is unless it is joining a trading group of 27 members!

Diesel cars, which you fail to admit, given the alienation of diesel is it any wonder sales are down.

masterwilde

CKhalvashi wrote: »

So, the credit binge is over and we are on the verge of entering a recession, in fact as correctly demonstrated the other week we are already in one if we take inflation into account.

I'm waiting for one of our right wing tabloids (who have spent years criticising the Eurozone economy) to point out that we are the only EU country experiencing negative wage growth.

Funnily enough though, both the tabloids and the Leavers appear to have gone very quiet on the matter.

Seriously..... so Greece is doing so well hey? how about Spain?

Rinoa

CKhalvashi wrote: »

We can trade, but not on the same terms, putting the UK at a disadvantage. If the UK cannot compete it will lose vital long term contracts as a result of this, harming British workers.



How is that a relevant question?

Try reading it again.

The EU gives us trading relationships with is the key phrase here. That does not imply the exports go to the EU, it implies that some of those exports go to countries the EU has negotiated preferential agreements with on the behalf of the UK.

You voted to lose those preferential agreements to the detriment of the UK, wishing harm on its citizens. I will fight (and I'm just as vocal off the forum as on it) to keep those agreements, for the UK to remain a full member of the European Union, as this is the best way forward for the UK.

New Zealand has more free trade agreements than the EU. How difficult can it be.

After 60 years the EU still don't have agreements with the countries that matter.

phillw

Porthos_Three wrote: »

That pretty much fits with what some leavers have been saying for quite some time.

A swedish MP who talks about breaking up the EU agrees with some leavers? Unbelievable.

Rinoa wrote: »

New Zealand has more free trade agreements than the EU. How difficult can it be.

You don't think there could be a geographic reason for that? You can't trust those europeans, refusing to move their country to improve their trade deals.

masterwilde wrote: »

Seriously..... so Greece is doing so well hey? how about Spain?

The point wasn't how well they are doing today, but the direction of how well they are doing. The UK is on a decline, which is being accelerated by brexit. In the past we'd go out and steal stuff from another country to dig ourselves out of a hole but like sexual harassment and tax avoidance that isn't something you can get away with these days.

ukcarper wrote: »

The trading terms with UK will remain the same and we could negotiate better terms so it does not follow our trade will suffer.

How can trading terms remain the same or get better if the "will of the people" rejected the current terms?

ukcarper wrote: »

Perhaps you could explain something to me the additional 21% is with countries EU are negotiating with if that's the case as we are already trading with these countries do you think they will stop trading with us if EU succeeds in getting a deal.

If we switch to WTO rules and we go over our quota (or the quota is essentially zero) then yes they will stop trading with us. Do you think that countries will overlook this out of respect for your right to vote to leave the EU? They'll also impose the WTO import tariffs which will make our imports less attractive, which could also mean they stop trading with us.

Our trading relationship with the EU has damaged some peoples expectations of what it's like to export before we joined the EU, those people are called leavers. The people who understood this voted to remain. I guess in leavers minds it will all work out because we're british and everyone will fall in line. Good luck with that.

gfplux wrote: »

Actually I don't know what "a great trade deal" is unless it is joining a trading group of 27 members!

Leavers will have no problem with that, as long as the other 27 members aren't foreigners or we'll have to take control.

masterwilde

So i was always a leaver and never for the dross the media speculated.

The reality is Europe is governed by the elite for the elite, they dont care about the individual countries or people of those countries. This is evidenced by the poorer countries in the EU. Now ask yourself when its open knowledge that the EU is always looking to recruit new member states, who other than poor countries are left? Who will pay for the upgrades to them, the constant inflow of money they need?

Now with regards to trade agreements, the UK should decide who with and at what price, not the Brussels elite. We should have the power to decline or accept.

Now with regard to money, well on a country scale whats the issue, the world runs on a debt based economic model, debts are not paid for, they are kicked down the road for the next generation. This should be a problem but isnt, as evidenced by the western world.

cogito

gfplux wrote: »

Pedantic.
I said, "Cogito, the EU sent an itemised bill with no numbers in May."

I could have said "Cogito, the EU sent an itemised LIST with no numbers in May 2017.

Is that better?

Of course it's better. A bill isn't a list. Any fule no that.

Thrugelmir

CKhalvashi wrote: »

So, the credit binge is over and we are on the verge of entering a recession, in fact as correctly demonstrated the other week we are already in one if we take inflation into account.

Inflation isn't taken into account though. The economy is growing albeit slowly. A correction was never going to be painless. Arguaby if they wasn't a credit binge the economy would have hit the buffers years ago.

ukcarper

phillw wrote: »

How can trading terms remain the same or get better if the "will of the people" rejected the current terms?



If we switch to WTO rules and we go over our quota (or the quota is essentially zero) then yes they will stop trading with us. Do you think that countries will overlook this out of respect for your right to vote to leave the EU? They'll also impose the WTO import tariffs which will make our imports less attractive, which could also mean they stop trading with us.

The post was in reply to a post about trade deal with countries that the EU does not yet have a trade deal with so is nothing to do with our existing deal with EU.

Thrugelmir

gfplux wrote: »

As a remainer I say this is bad news.

With the UK running a record trade deficit. Something has to give. If the economy is to rebalance.

Thrugelmir

CKhalvashi wrote: »

Anyway, back to the original point I was making; there is increased competition for insolvent (but likely viable) companies at the moment.

No one wants insolvent companies. Far better to drive them out of business. Then mop up their trade. With low interest rates zombie businesses simply survive. Not healthyfor the wider economy.

Aldermore bank appear to be the latest company to fall into foreign ownership. A growing profitable business as well.