Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

Thrugelmir

Ballard wrote: »

Leavers insisted that as soon as the referendum result was announced the EU would realised that they need us more than we need them and that a trade deal with the bloc would be done and dusted within months.

That hasn't happened but it doesn't matter because as soon as we're able to sign deals with other nations they'll all be rushing to sign on the dotted line.

They cant be wrong twice now, can they? Have faith!

I doubt that Greece, Portugal, Estonia, Finland, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Hungary, Malta, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Latvia, and Lithuania have a trade agreement as their top political / national priorities.

wunferall

Ballard wrote: »

Repeatedly but I!!!8217;m not traveling through hundreds of pages looking for it. It was a common mantra at the time (Not just on this forum) so I!!!8217;m surprised that you!!!8217;ve forgotten it.

!!!8220;Do you really think that BMW, VW et al will be happy for tariffs to be implemented on UK-EU trade? They!!!8217;ll be banging on Mrs Merkels door demanding an immediate trade deal. They need us more than we need them!!!!!8221;

Ring any bells?

We'll take that as a big fat "no" to the OP's question ten shall we? That would be because your ridiculous statement was wrong which is why you were questioned, I suppose.

FYI and IIRC it has frequently been said that the EU needs us just as much as we need them - or by volume of trade - more than we need them since they sell us £80 billion per year than we sell them. You cannot deny the figures which are in the public arena.

I love the way You're looking for "it" & then you then say "it was common" - so common you can't find any. :rotfl: But that's irrelevant given the figures because it is fact that we are sold more than we in turn sell.

The German Deloitte reports have twice detailed the extent of the impact upon the German economy should tariffs arise. Bavarian (and in fact other German too) business leaders have called for sensibility in negotiations in order to protect their industries. These have all been posted in this thread. If you want a fairly recent picture though have a look at this in DW from December.
http://www.dw.com/en/how-a-hard-brexit-could-hurt-germany-reckoning-with-the-worst-that-may-befall/a-41895449
Do those not ring any bells for you?

Now have a read of this insight for a few more reasons the EU needed the UK, and how our leaving will impact them.
https://edition.cnn.com/2018/03/28/opinions/eu-not-ready-for-brexit-king-opinion-intl/index.html

gfplux

kabayiri wrote: »

I don't believe we really did.

But anyway, I have highlighted the key word in your para : *had*.

The moment the referendum result showed that we were heavily Euro-sceptic, our ability to influence going forward was on the wane.

Give me one good reason why the key EU players should give us lots of influence now?

The relationship has changed.

There is no good reason the EU will grant Britain any influence. Surely that is one of the cornerstones of the Brexit vote, to loose all EU influence over Britain and Britain to lose any influence over the EU.

PS kabayiri why not update your location.

gfplux

Another cornerstone of the post referendum Brexit argument was that they (the EU) needed Britain more than Britain needed them (the EU)
This so the Brexiter narrative went would be why the negotiations of phase one, phase two and the transition agreement would all be in Britains favour as the EU needed Britains trade.
Then coming to the trade agreement the EU had no cards to play as they needed Britain more than Britain needed them.
In fact BMW would be at the front of the charge to do a deal.
Well sadly that did not go well for phase one and two nor the transition agreement.
Perhaps as the trade talks get under way (by the way when does that start) it will become clear that Britain is in the driving seat.

gfplux

Mike_Spilligan wrote: »

"Leavers insisted that as soon as the referendum result was announced the EU would realised that they need us more than we need them and that a trade deal with the bloc would be done and dusted within months."

I wonder if you would be so kind as to show me where "leavers" said this?

Welcome Mike to the thread and to Moneysavingexpert.

As you are a newby to these threads about Brexit I suggest you go back and do a little reading of the Brexiter posts.
The phrase they need us more than we need them was so common that if you had one of those old TV monitors it would have burnt into the screen.
Please, just go and look.

wunferall

gfplux wrote: »

Welcome Mike to the thread and to Moneysavingexpert.

As you are a newby to these threads about Brexit I suggest you go back and do a little reading of the Brexiter posts.
The phrase they need us more than we need them was so common that if you had one of those old TV monitors it would have burnt into the screen.
Please, just go and look.

Really? If there were so many, YOU supply a few if you can. No blustering, no, "but"'s and no more waffle. Prove that you're not just telling fibs.


BTW, as the EU sell us £80 billion more per year than we in turn sell them who do you think needs who the most and why?

kabayiri

gfplux wrote: »

There is no good reason the EU will grant Britain any influence. Surely that is one of the cornerstones of the Brexit vote, to loose all EU influence over Britain and Britain to lose any influence over the EU.

It's the timing thing.

The vote itself changed the nature of our relationship, well before any A50 completion. So why do people like Gina Miller argue that we can use the legal system to reset things.

There is no reset. The best that the likes of Tony Blair or Gina Miller could hope for is a cancellation of Brexit, but it would result in a new norm.

So I have to ask. What would this new norm entail?

We aren't going to join the Euro, so any further integration plans based around the common currency would see us excluded anyway. Would the UK become an increasingly marginalised player, just there for the money input?

Backbiter

Conrad never stopped using that argument. Here's but one example:
http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.php?p=73269036&postcount=171

kabayiri

wunferall wrote: »

...
BTW, as the EU sell us £80 billion more per year than we in turn sell them who do you think needs who the most and why?

It's not so much about sheer financial amounts, but a case of who shouts first and shouts loudest.

I offer exhibit A : the French farmers and fisherman, followed closely by their Spanish cousins.

The amounts involved might be small compared to trade in autos, but you can easily imagine a few lorries being burned along the autoroutes, followed by protests.

I'd probably do same if my livelihood were directly threatened. It's only the supine politicians who struggle to fight for something.

kabayiri

Herzlos wrote: »

I don't adore the eu. Far from it. It's possible to dislike the eu machine whilst thinking Brexit is a bad idea.
...

Another thing you seem to dislike is watching that video link I provided

It isn't long I promise.