Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

Filo25

ukcarper wrote: »

Tromking wrote: »

I think that is the problem with Labour Party now they are to detached from their original supporters. It will have to been seen how many will desert them if it becomes clear they are going to try and water down brexit. But 35% of Labour voters voted to leave and looking at make up of leave vote that percentage is higher in traditional Labour constituencies.

It depends on why those Labour supporters voted Leave though, based on the comments on a lot of Labour MPs from Leave voting constituencies my guess is that their feeling is it was largely driven by immigration concerns, if that was the case then the risk for them isn't huge if they start supporting remaining in the Customs Union, as long as they commit to remaining out of the Single Market.

If Labour policy is changed to supporting remaining in the Single market I suspect you won't have too many dissenters amongst Labour MPs beyond the hardcore Eurosceptics (Field, Hoey and a few others)

gfplux

gfplux wrote: »

Thanks.
The leaving agreement will be voted on by the parliament.

As you say any trade agreement has to be agreed by all EU27 country!!!8217;s. That will take a lot of doing as that is where individual country!!!8217;s will have the opportunity to protect their own interests. To be frank I don!!!8217;t know wether they can except a trade deal with exceptions or just say yes or no.

Obviously each country will have already lobbied heavily for their own interest, ALL 27 that makes for a long long negotiating period. Perhaps the transition period will be very very very long.

Although Gibralter is a different matter.

From Bloomberg’s Brexit briefing.

QUOTE
Spain is demanding joint management of Gibraltar’s airport and greater cooperation on tax fraud and smuggling after Brexit, the Financial Times reports. Spain has a veto over the Brexit deal as it applies to Gibraltar, so its demands could derail the wider EU-U.K. agreement. In good news for the U.K. however, Spain says now is not the time to try to win sovereignty of the rocky outcrop that was ceded to Britain in 1713.
END QUOTE

gfplux

Parliament published last week what could happen if there were no withdrawal deal.
Also alternatives.
https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CDP-2018-0039
The first paragraph
QUOTE
What would !!!8216;no deal!!!8217; mean?

The UK can leave the EU with or without a withdrawal agreement, but the Government has said it wants a smooth and orderly Brexit. Leaving the EU without an agreement would not be smooth or orderly.

If for whatever reason there is no withdrawal agreement by 29 March 2019, and no unanimous agreement to extend the two-year period, the EU Treaties will automatically cease to apply to the UK.

!!!8216;No deal!!!8217; would result in UK-EU trade being subject to general WTO rules, meaning increased barriers to trade in goods, with no preferential tariff agreement and possibly preventing some trade in services.

There would be no transitional period and possibly no other agreements with the EU on matters such as data sharing, aviation or customs co-operation. It would also mean significant uncertainty about all the other issues in the negotiations, such as citizens!!!8217; rights.

Leaving with no withdrawal agreement would not necessarily prevent the two sides from reaching future bilateral agreements on any or all of these matters. But on Brexit day the UK and the EU would not have concluded such agreements.

Both sides have said they want to avoid this, but it is still a possibility.
END QUOTE

gfplux

This also published by parliament
https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/LLN-2018-0025

QUOTE
The Haulage Permits and Trailer Registration Bill [HL] is a government bill which was introduced in the House of Lords on 7 February 2018. It is due to have its second reading on 27 February 2018.

Under current EU regulations, road hauliers require a Community Licence for all operations in or through EU countries. After Brexit, UK-issued Community Licences will no longer be valid in the EU (unless agreement were reached otherwise). UK hauliers would be able to conduct some operations in the EU using permits issued under the European Conference of Transport Ministers multilateral quota scheme, but these are restricted in number and do not cover the full range of haulage operations permitted by the Community Licence. The Government aims to negotiate a deal with the EU to maintain current levels of access to the European road freight market, which might result in a new permit scheme. Part 1 of the Bill would enable the Secretary of State to make secondary legislation introducing a new international haulage permit scheme if necessary. The provisions could implement a multilateral arrangement between the UK and the EU, or bilateral arrangements between the UK and individual EU member states.
END QUOTE

gfplux

Lots more sorry but the links in the copy and paste are not live. The reports are easy to find if you want.



UK fisheries management
Summarises the science used to inform management, current approaches to EU fisheries, and future challenges and opportunities

Live animal exports
Overview of the EU regulations protecting animals during transport and ongoing campaigns calling for a ban on live exports for slaughter

Debate on ending the export of live farm animals after Brexit
Information on exporting live animals to EU countries ahead of the debate on an e-petition calling for a ban after the UK leaves the EU

The spending of the Department for Exiting the European Union
Overview of the costs of Brexit, looking at spending by the Department for Exiting the European Union and other departments

Future UK fisheries policy
Overview of the EU's Common Fisheries Policy, a UK Fisheries Bill to replace it and whether a transition period is required

Brexit: who has said what about transition?
Outlines what the EU and UK sides have said about the scope of and conditions for a Brexit transition period

tracey3596

Same old, same old, same old.

Is all this cutting and pasting not contravening MSE's guidance on copyright infringement gfplux?
Surely one link would suffice.



David Davis's reaction to Labour's newest plan du jour:

David Davis: Labour selling "snake oil" Brexit

!!!8220;Labour may think they have stumbled across a simple solution to Brexit, but there is a lesson they are yet to learn: If it looks like snake oil, and it smells like snake oil, don!!!8217;t expect it to make you feel better,!!!8221; wrote Davis. !!!8220;[It] would prevent us from signing economy-boosting, job-creating free-trade deals with other countries around the world. This is one of the central prizes of Brexit,!!!8221;

https://www.politico.eu/article/david-davis-jeremy-corbyn-labour-selling-snake-oil-brexit/

Ballard

tracey3596 wrote: »

I have.
Mostly because you absolutely ignored my previous post that Brexit has not yet been concluded and also because you ignore the fact that the UK voted to leave the EU.

At no point did mrginge say what you said he did; try reading it again maybe.
What was actually said was:

From the persistent "you can't"'s from remainers it is obvious just where the intransigence and distraction lies.
With the EU and Europhiles desperate to clink to the shirt-tails of what they think is a safe option.
Typical remainer tactic:

Against my better judgement I shall return to this subject one last time.

Your point about us not having left the EU made no sense against my point.

Again, my point was that leave voters repeatedly claimed that there was no way that German manufacturers would allow their government to push through EU/UK tariffs and would IMMEDIATELY lobby Merkel to ensure that free trade continued.

To the best of my knowledge no such lobbying has occurred. Again, to the best of my knowledge, the aforementioned German manufacturers have declared that they aren’t interested in pushing for such a trade.

I’ve put it as simply as I could so hopefully it will be easy for you to understand. I apologise for the lake of emoticons, of which I know that you are fond.

I have not ignored the fact that we voted to leave the EU and I have not knowingly called for us to remain. I happen to think that it’s a terrible idea but since the majority of people who voted opted for it then leave we must. This has always been my opinion so please don’t make assumptions.

ukcarper

Filo25 wrote: »

It depends on why those Labour supporters voted Leave though, based on the comments on a lot of Labour MPs from Leave voting constituencies my guess is that their feeling is it was largely driven by immigration concerns, if that was the case then the risk for them isn't huge if they start supporting remaining in the Customs Union, as long as they commit to remaining out of the Single Market.

If Labour policy is changed to supporting remaining in the Single market I suspect you won't have too many dissenters amongst Labour MPs beyond the hardcore Eurosceptics (Field, Hoey and a few others)

Its difficult to say what could be achieved and what effect that will have on traditional Labour voters. Although in theory the numbers might be there for MPs to vote in favour of a customs union I think when push comes to shove not enough Torys with vote against government.

tracey3596

Ballard wrote: »

Against my better judgement I shall return to this subject one last time.

I deleted the rest because TBH it's all pretty much a waste of electrons; you should have trusted your original thought and desisted.

To be clear, your opinions are worth no more and no less than anybody else when it comes to predicting the future.
Simply, nobody knows and any guesswork is irrelevant because the Brexit process has not yet been completed.

Brexit could well be a huge success.
Equally it could turn out to be a total failure and - being a remainer - this is of course your stance although there is no evidence at all to support your opinion; nor is there any data so far to back up your assertions.

Presumably it is this lack of evidence that leads you and your fellow remainers on here to resort to the frequent use of nastiness in your failed arguments.

We will all know exactly how Brexit pans out in due course.
You and your fellow remainers can continue predicting the most dire of consequences if it makes you feel better but to insist you are correct before we have even left is just plain ludicrous.

At least that matches many remain posts in this thread though.

Ballard

Just ignore the fact that your post that we have yet to leave the EU made no sense in relation to my post. That’d be your best bet.