Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

Lornapink

ilovehouses wrote: »

There's no fallacy. The figures indicate the UK is becoming a less attractive place to live and seek work. There is no other way to interpret this.

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Honestly I know a few Poles and they are returning as they say they dislike the UK due to mass immigration, I kid you not. They do also mention better prospects in Poland than ever before. My English hairdresser goes there all the time and says she's thinking of buying a place there as 'it reminds her of how England used to be'.

Lornapink

Arklight wrote: »

Lol. I was worried about our economic growth in 2050, thank God someone has posted a chart about it. Any tips on the Grand National?

Notice how calm headed Leavers didn't get excited by a mere forecast, we posses this odd thing called common sense you see. Conversely Remainers get very excited with 15 yr forecasts.

Filo25

I'll help you out and quote PWC's notes to the analysis.

The UK holds its position in the GDP rankings relatively well compared to other advanced economies despite the medium term dampening impact on growth from Brexit, falling just one place from 9th in 2016 to 10th in 2050 (at PPPs). The UK's position is sustained by its relatively larger projected working age share of the population, although this does depend on the country remaining open to talented people from around the world after Brexit.

In short Brexit will hurt growth but as long as we remain open to immigration for young people to come here and work we will have better demographics than most developed nations, hardly a ringing endorsement of the economic wisdom of Brexit and the "close the borders" crowd.....

Lornapink

Arklight wrote: »

As far as FDI out to India, the UK accounts for 8%, tied with Japan, the EU accounts for 14%. So who is India going to consider more important?

Jeeze does this still need explaining on this Forum, just wow.

EU has a poor trade deal record, until recently only 1 significant deal was done (S Korea). Due to Brexit they are now trying to speed up trade deals negotiations, 40 years late. Only 33 FTA's are active most with tiny insignificant nations

So India will do deals where practicable, size is secondary. Trying to cut deals with a 28 nation talking shop was always difficult.

Small nations such as Chile and Iceland, NZ & S Korea are merrily making global deals, but, but ,but how can this be they are sooooooooo small

Filo25

Lornapink wrote: »

Jeeze does this still need explaining on this Forum, just wow.

EU has a poor trade deal record, until recently only 1 significant deal was done (S Korea). Due to Brexit they are now trying to speed up trade deals negotiations, 40 years late. Only 33 FTA's are active most with tiny insignificant nations

So India will do deals where practicable, size is secondary. Trying to cut deals with a 28 nation talking shop was always difficult.

Small nations such as Chile and Iceland, NZ & S Korea are merrily making global deals, but, but ,but how can this be they are sooooooooo small

I was under the impression that the UK was one of the EU nations which kicked up the most fuss about an EU-India trade deal due to the visa/immigration implications

Arklight

Filo25 wrote: »

I'll help you out and quote PWC's notes to the analysis.



In short Brexit will hurt growth but as long as we remain open to immigration for young people to come here and work we will have better demographics than most developed nations, hardly a ringing endorsement of the economic wisdom of Brexit and the "close the borders" crowd.....

You realise that a report predicting economic growth 3 decades away may as well be guessing what the weather will be like on lunchtime the 3rd of March 2048?

I know people are more credulous with things they see written down but there has to be a limit.

Lornapink

Theophile wrote: »

So please spare me your faux indignation on the number of far-right wingers in the Bundestag.

I think the take home point is that the democratic deficit foisted upon citizens by arrogant elites is the cause of the far-right surge across Europe.
You might want to ponder on the effects a reversal of Brexit will present, not least of which will be a massive surge of the right and a cacophony of calls for a referendum on English independence (J Redwood and other Brexiteers have all mentioned such)

Lornapink

ilovehouses wrote: »

In the case of Poles; they've seen sterling weaken, the Zloty strengthen and opportunity at home increase. That's before we even talk about the uncertainty of brexit

Not liking the UK because there are too many other migrants and England not being like the England of the Famous Five will only be influencing decisions at the far margins.

Good. This is what we need, more sustainable immigration (still far too high) which benefits us in so many ways, from rising wages at lower end to more sustainable house building requirement. It also enables Poland to build herself, what's wrong with that or are we Brits so greedy & selfish as to be concerned only with our own development?


I take it life for you was ok before mass immigration became a thing?

Lornapink

ilovehouses wrote: »

Isn't the EU single market an example of one of Planet Earth's single biggest trade deals?

Not bad for a squabble shop.

Iceland, Australia, Canada, Chile all manage to do deals globally, we will thrive doing them ourselves, no need for a messy 28 talking shop. We will obviously doo a good UK-EU deal anyway, so there's nothing to loose.

Arklight

The thing which is most arduous about this thread is that 2 out 4 people are the same person.