Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

wunferall

Moby wrote: »

Your example is wrong. Major trade deals are best done between blocs of countries. Japan for example is interested in the UK due to us providing a gateway into the EU. Their ministers have been clear about that. The EU is not made of disparate countries. If it was there wouldn't be an EU!

Not every deal has to be a major trade deal and/or between blocs of countries, and neither are the necessarily the best deals since (as said before) the wishes of all members of a bloc must agree. Often they do not, certainly not wholly.
"The EU is not made of disparate countries. If it was there wouldn't be an EU!"
You said it. That's what some are pushing for significant reform and some want a two-speed EU. If you think that the EU ten or twenty years hence will be anything similar to the EU of today that is looking increasingly unlikely, just as the EU of today bears little resemblance to the Common Market of the 70's.

wunferall

Moby wrote: »

http://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2018/02/20/aviation-cliff-edge-how-brexit-is-sabotaging-a-british-succe Another sad consequence of brexit.

No, it isn't. Really it isn't. Not just because nothing has yet been decided but because, frankly, the idea that flights will cease is absurd.
Imagine the squealing from those countries currently experiencing millions of UK tourists every year that see not only these holidaymakers but their cash spends whilst on holiday evaporate.
You need to read more from those within the industry itself to gauge true opinion on any likely outcome. Try Pprune as a starting point.

wunferall

Moby wrote: »

Ukraine is more complicated than that. A large part of Ukraine wanted to draw closer to the EU and join NATO. Putin's Russia feared that and stopped it by fermenting civil war in the Ukraine and taking over the Crimea. Your response totally ignores the points I made. Look at the history of Europe before the EU, conflict and dispute was far far more prevalent. The likelihood of Protectionism is far more likely after brexit and Trump!

Just because conflict was more prevalent than now does not negate what currently exists!
The reasons for Ukraine can be discussed ad infinitum but you cannot argue the violence currently experienced there. Nor can you negate the violence seen towards innocent Catalonian citizenry for daring to try and vote for what they believe in - within the EU!

Protectionism far more likely after Brexit and trump? Yes, by the EU if they get what so many seniors within that organisation want! Just one example being "accept the Euro as your currency or leave!" Not protectionist at all that, I suppose.

Thrugelmir

ilovehouses wrote: »

No nothing. There's a rising tide of world growth and the UK is being lifted like many other countries. You're taking a micro view and confusing correlation with causation.

If there isn't an increase in global demand. Where's the UK going to export to, Brexit or no Brexit.

Not a good story either.

UK Posts Largest Trade Deficit in 15 Months

The UK’s deficit on trade in goods and services widened by GBP 1.2 billion to GBP 4.896 billion in December 2017 from an upwardly revised GBP 3.652 billion in the previous month and way above market expectations of GBP 2.4 billion. It was the largest trade deficit since September 2016.

Imports of goods and services to the UK rose by 3 percent to an all-time high of GBP 57.02 billion in December from GBP 55.35 billion in the previous month, boosted by a 3.8 percent increase in purchases of goods, mainly fuels (6.6 percent), and a 0.7 percent gain in imports of services. Among trading partners, imports of goods from the EU jumped 6.5 percent, mainly from Germany (6.1 percent), the Netherlands (5 percent), Belgium & Luxembourg (16.9 percent) and France (0.9 percent). In addition, purchases from non-EU countries advanced 0.8 percent, as imports increased the most from Norway (12.4 percent) and the US (7.9 percent).

Exports from the UK increased at a slower 0.8 percent to GBP 52.12 billion in December from GBP 51.70 billion in November, due to higher sales of goods (1.5 percent), mainly manufactured goods (2.8 percent), while exports of services fell slightly (-0.1 percent). Among major trading partners, exports of goods to the EU grew 6.9 percent, as sales increased mainly to Germany (16.8 percent), France (21.7 percent) and Ireland (2.3 percent). By contrast, exports of goods to non-EU countries declined 3.6 percent, namely to China (-27.4 percent), Hong Kong (-30.4 percent) and South Korea (-20.3 percent), while exports rose to the US (6.9 percent).

In the three months to December 2017, the trade deficit widened by GBP 3.8 billion to GBP 10.8 billion, due to a GBP 3.3 billion widening of the trade in goods deficit and a GBP 0.5 billion narrowing of the trade in services surplus. Large increases in fuels import prices along with decreases in fuels export volumes had the largest impact on the widening of the trade in goods deficit.

Considering 2017 as a whole, the trade deficit narrowed by GBP 7.0 billion from the previous year to GBP 33.7 billion, as exports rose 11.3 percent to GBP 617.2 billion while imports increased at a softer 9.3 percent to GBP 650.9 billion. Main exports were mechanical machinery, cars, electrical machinery and medicinal and pharmaceutical products, and the biggest export partners were the United States, Germany, France, the Netherlands, Ireland and China. Meanwhile main imports were electrical machinery, mechanical machinery, cars, other miscellaneous manufactures and medicinal and pharmaceutical products. The most important sources of imports were Germany, China, the Netherlands, the United States and France.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/balance-of-trade

wunferall

ilovehouses wrote: »

No nothing. There's a rising tide of world growth and the UK is being lifted like many other countries. You're taking a micro view and confusing correlation with causation.

but yes - George Osborne and remainers.

The "rising tide of world growth" hasn't helped Japan or Italy and they are G20 economies. The UK is ahead of them in terms of growth despite Brexit which proves your assertion false, more-so given what we were warned about recession; jobs lost etc. Neither Japan or Italy are facing the added turmoil of Brexit are they?

Matt_L

A list of areas and industries that may be affected in a Positive way after or during Brexit. Updated 21 February 2018

Lower roaming charges
EHIC medical support
British Cancer sufferers
Pet travel
British Students.
EU27 Students.
British Citizens living in the EU27
EU Citizens living in Britain
Belgian confectionary / chocolatiers
Danish pork industry
French agriculture
Spanish agriculture
Italian agriculture.
British Haulage industry
Any British manufacturing using EU components
Any British company with EU customers
Anyone who eats food
Germanys car Industry
Dutch flower growers
Rotterdam Port
Dover
Calais
French wine makers
Holyhead Port
People/businesses close to the N Ireland/ROI Border
ROI
Japanese car makers in Britain
British Farmers
London Financial business.
Seasonal workers from the old Eastern Europe.
Aviation Industry
ndian citizens easier migration
African citizens easier migration
Chinese citizens easier migration
American Farmers
British flower growers
Democracy..

And the negative

None as yet..

Please feel free to add any...

Arklight

Lornapink wrote: »

You are correct. The most influential thinker on the planet, Professor Jordan Peterson (clinical psychologist, ex-Harvard) says we are all dumb and virtually incapable of understanding opponents. He and other's say educational attainment has no bearing whatsoever on ones ability to compute arguments counter to your position.

I had an experience of this today. Driving along a fast road, a lorry broken down on the other side - oncoming traffic trying to get round into my lane making me wait - no way - this 'my lane' you need to wait pall.

Absent mindedly forgot I was to be coming back in the opposite direction 10 mins later.
Now I'm the one trying to push around the lorry into the oncoming traffic lane - oh yeah, my right, I have rights too, I need to get somewhere, be patient you silly-billy, and I'm surely in my rights to make you oncommer's wait now, what's the rush.
I adjusted reality to suit my objective.

It struck me how I altered my entire dynamic take on matters depending on my direction of travel.
I used to be a screaming lefty as a teen and can recall how impervious my mind was to counter-views. Now I'm on the right I cant possibly fathom lefty logic.

I suspect you didn’t understand it the first time round.

Arklight

Moby wrote: »

Ukraine is more complicated than that. A large part of Ukraine wanted to draw closer to the EU and join NATO. Putin's Russia feared that and stopped it by fermenting civil war in the Ukraine and taking over the Crimea. Your response totally ignores the points I made. Look at the history of Europe before the EU, conflict and dispute was far far more prevalent. The likelihood of Protectionism is far more likely after brexit and Trump!

It wasn’t the Russians that bankrolled a coup that deposed an elected leader unsympathetic to the USA (again) then funded a bunch of hard right neo-Nazis, thugs, and fascists on the basis that ‘the enemy of our enemy is our friend' (again) and then attempted to annex a Russian naval base for NATO in a country Gorbachev was succinctly promised would not have NATO anywhere near it as a condition of Perestroika.

wunferall

Arklight wrote: »

It wasn’t the Russians that bankrolled a coup that deposed an elected leader unsympathetic to the USA (again) then funded a bunch of hard right neo-Nazis, thugs, and fascists on the basis that ‘the enemy of our enemy is our friend' (again) and then attempted to annex a Russian naval base for NATO in a country Gorbachev was succinctly promised would not have NATO anywhere near it as a condition of Perestroika.

If what you say is true that would place this at the door of Barack Obama. Yet Donald Trump to many is supposedly the devil incarnate?
Yeah right.
Also you appear to forget that it was the EU who sided with the USA, plus imposed sanctions on Russia, AND were the ones offering Ukraine the "agreement" with the EU which began the whole sorry mess.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/10853278/The-EUs-to-blame-for-the-crisis-in-Ukraine.html

wunferall

Look!
Proof positive that wages will rise faster this year.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/feb/21/brexit-will-knock-5-off-wage-growth-says-mark-carney
Well he's not got very much right so far, has he. As the report itself says. Plus it doesn't chime with the BoE's own report from just one week ago.

Bank of England agents' survey shows that real wages will grow by 3.1% in 2018.
That's well ahead of 2017's 2.6% growth, and would mark a return to real wage growth.

http://uk.businessinsider.com/uk-pay-wages-payrise-bank-of-england-survey-2018-2
Bless him. Roll on 1st December Mr Carney.