Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

Thrugelmir

gfplux wrote: »

So thanks to Lornapink the list of areas and industries that may be affected in a NEGATIVE way after or during Brexit.

Belgian confectionary / chocolatiers
Danish pork industry
French agriculture
Spanish agriculture
Italian agriculture.
British Haulage industry
Any British manufacturing using EU components
Any British company with EU customers
Anyone who eats food
Germanys car Industry
Dutch flower growers
Rotterdam Port
Dover already damaged by large numbers of non EU immigrants landing and not moving on. Will be further damaged after Brexit.
Calais already damaged due to large number of non EU immigrants congregating in attempting to gain entry to the UK. Will be further damaged after Brexit
French wine makers
Holyhead Port
People/businesses close to the N Ireland/ROI Border
ROI
Japanese car makers in Britain
British Farmers during the withdrawal of £3 billion a year subsidies.
London Financial business.

Plus one from me.
Seasonal workers from the old Eastern Europe.

A few more for you.

Ireland imports 89 percent of its oil products and 93 percent of its gas from the U.K.,

The U.K is the fourth export market for Flanders with €27.66 billion annually.

The Hauts-de-France region in the north of that country (where President Emmanuel Macron was born) is home of the parts division of the car maker Toyota, which operates in the region. For example, 13 percent of Yaris exports in 2016 went to the U.K.

The French d!partement of Finistère, in Brittany, is bracing itself for a hit to its fishermen. “The end of the access to the British fishing areas to the Finistère fishing boats is a real economic risk, 50 percent of the fishing activity in Brittany region … is made inside the British Exclusive Economic Zone,” warned local official Nathalie Sarrabezolles.

Hauts-de-France is home to France’s main fishing port, Boulogne-Calais, which the report describes as the main European center for the treatment and processing of sea products. “Along the region’s coastline nearly 170 small-scale and deep-sea fishing businesses produce a turnover of close to €80 million with a fleet of around 190 vessels, providing nearly 900 on-board jobs,” writes Decoster.

Regions of the Netherlands are also potentially heavily impacted by losing access to U.K. waters. In the central Dutch province of Flevoland, the coastal town of Urk (which sports a fish on its coat of arms), is concerned that the fishing and fish processing industries will be badly hit (40 percent of its economic activity is based on fishing). The provinces of Flevoland and Overijssel predict a potential drop of 60 percent in fishing business.

For Prešov, the Slovak region in the east of the country, citizens returning home from the U.K. will present potential difficulties. “It can cause the increase of the unemployment rate in Prešov,” writes official Andrea Tur!!!269;anov!. In Portugal, M!rio S!rgio Quaresma Marques, the official in charge for Madeira, an archipelago off the Moroccan cost, warns that a large-scale return of citizens “would result in an immediate and significant increase in unemployment in the region (!), one that already has a high level of unemployment.”

The German city of Bremen stressed that the U.K is its third-largest trade partner while Berlin pointed out that the U.K. is its fifth-largest. For Cyprus, “Britain is the second trading partner … as a whole and the first one in terms of services, investment and shipping.” And while Polish regions made clear their biggest concern is a reduction of the EU budget, the province of Lublin, southeast of Warsaw, is also worried about reduced exports, “especially agricultural and agri-food products.”

phillw

Enterprise_1701C wrote: »

If they committed the crime in a specific country then they should be answerable to the laws in that country

Legally you cannot deport someone who faces death or torture & that has nothing to do with the EU.

The main problem was that she was too weak to prosecute them here.

tracey3596 wrote: »

Long ago the volume of posts drowned out what the original point really is, which is (in a nutshell) the fact that the EU and the UK must both agree to a deal before anybody pays anything

...

Trying to argue that it's only the UK who would be breaking any deal in the event no agreement is reached then is a fallacious argument.

We ended the current deal so we must pay up for the deferred payments and the commitments we already made. Having no new deal doesn't erase that & only affects commitments moving forward.

Try cancelling your credit card and arguing the balance no longer needs to be paid.

wunferall

ilovehouses wrote: »

If price is everything then you could agree a price per tonne for my wheat today to be delivered after harvest but renege on that deal if you found the future spot price was lower.

You're trusting I won't take a higher spot price if it goes against me and vice versa. You must have heard what reputational damage can do - there's a clue in the words.

No point doing a deal with you if you can't be trusted to keep to it.

Are you still trying?

There are three big problems with your hypotheses.
Firstly, what happens when weevil decimates your crop of wheat and you can't fulfil you futures-based deal? And second (as has I see been very succinctly said already) a deal must be made first before there is any deal to break. Finally both parties would be breaking a deal in the event of the UK walking away and - again as said already - the EU would be viewed as the complicit party due to their bullying, and not only of the UK.

phillw

wunferall wrote: »

And second (as has I see been very succinctly said already) a deal must be made first before there is any deal to break. Finally both parties would be breaking a deal in the event of the UK walking away and - again as said already - the EU would be viewed as the complicit party due to their bullying, and not only of the UK.

You're talking about a future trade deal. However we have made loads of "deals" that need to be settled, no matter what happens about that future trade deal.

Maybe you should write to your mortgage company and say that the house you just bought is really nice and thank them for lending the money, but you wish to end your current deal and if they don't agree to your terms you will not be paying them any more money.

I don't think the rest of the world will be blaming the EU, they can't believe how stupid we are for brexit. Not that the usual leave voter would care, because the rest of the world are foreigners anyway. Brexit is a case of the bullies turning round and crying that someone stood up to them.

wunferall

phillw wrote: »

Legally you cannot deport someone who faces death or torture & that has nothing to do with the EU.

The main problem was that she was too weak to prosecute them here.



It's incorrect to argue that no deal means any deals are broken. If you have no deal, you can't break it. The UK is seen as obstinate by the rest of the world at the moment (apart from maybe Donald Trump or Putin).

Rubbish - unless you have evidence to support that statement?

The Greeks see the EU as bullies. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2017/04/29/eu-bully/
Malaysia sees the EU as bullies. https://www.reuters.com/article/malaysia-palmoil-eu/european-move-to-ban-palm-oil-from-biofuels-is-crop-apartheid-malaysia-idUSL3N1PD1NJ
The EU bullied Taiwan. http://aviationweek.com/awin/eu-bullies-taiwan-push-through-rolls-royce-engines
The EU bullies it's eastern members Poland, Hungary and the Czech republic.

Yet in your eyes it's the UK that are seen as obstinate?
In your dreams only, I suspect.

Thrugelmir

phillw wrote: »

I don't think the rest of the world will be blaming the EU, they can't believe how stupid we are for brexit. Not that the usual leave voter would care, because the rest of the world are foreigners anyway.

"They" don't care. Why would they. Americans don't care what we think of Trump. As it's none of our business.

phillw

wunferall wrote: »

The Greeks see the EU as bullies. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/2017/04/29/eu-bully/

An opinion piece from an anti EU paper about a country who acted pretty terribly and then tried to blame everyone else. Well I can see why you might side with the greeks. The UK calling the EU bullies is farcical. We have exploited the world and to turn round now and complain because they have a stronger position than ours is disingenuous.

wunferall wrote: »

Yet in your eyes it's the UK that are seen as obstinate?
In your dreams only, I suspect.

52% of the UK are. The rest are pretty liberal.

wunferall

phillw wrote: »

You're talking about a future trade deal. However we have made loads of "deals" that need to be settled, no matter what happens about that future trade deal.

Maybe you should write to your mortgage company and say that the house you just bought is really nice and thank them for lending the money, but you wish to end your current deal and if they don't agree to your terms you will not be paying them any more money.

I don't think the rest of the world will be blaming the EU, they can't believe how stupid we are for brexit. Not that the usual leave voter would care, because the rest of the world are foreigners anyway.

Wrong.
Read Article 50, it is very clear.

We are not buying the EU (and we wouldn't want to) so your example is off.
If anything we're renting. The contract is up and we are leaving so no rent will be due after the due notice period has expired. We're trying to agree your equivalent of keeping some odds & ends in their garage for a while and trying to negotiate a price for that.

Despite what you think, nobody outside the EU much cares about Brexit, the EU or in fact even has an opinion.
Unless you can prove otherwise of course?

phillw

wunferall wrote: »

If anything we're renting. The contract is up and we are leaving so no rent will be due after the due notice period has expired.

You're so wrong it must hurt.

Did you not get the memo that we're behind with our rent?

We're also going to have to pay to get out of our contract.

You can't just walk out of a rented property and not pay up.

wunferall

phillw wrote: »

An opinion piece from an anti EU paper about a country who acted pretty terribly and then tried to blame everyone else. Well I can see why you might side with the greeks.
You didn't read it did you? It was written by Yannis Varoufakis.See quote from that link below.



52% of the UK are. The rest are pretty liberal.

The last sentence of your posts makes no sense, sorry.
ETA - After reading Thrugelmir below I now understand your derisive and incorrect comment.

much of what he tells us has been confirmed in the last week by the EU’s actions.