Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

tracey3596

(Text removed by MSE Forum Team)

"First-time buyers at 10-year high in 2017"

The number of mortgages taken out by first-time buyers boomed last year to its highest level since 2006, buoyed by the Help to Buy subsidy.
Banks lent money to 365,000 first-time buyers in 2017, an increase on the year before of 7.4 per cent, according to UK Finance, the lenders' industry body.

http://www.cityam.com/280531/first-time-buyers-10-year-high-2017-but-mortgage-market

Of course there are the usual caveats.
Absolutely nothing to do with a shortage of available housing though.

cogito

gfplux wrote: »

This opinion piece from the co founder of Bloomberg.
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-02-09/greece-is-up-and-the-u-k-is-down-since-brexit-vote?utm_source=POLITICO.EU&utm_campaign=fe55d4ef27-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_02_09&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_10959edeb5-fe55d4ef27-190026745
Quote
So much for wishful thinking. In a role reversal not even the most prescient dared to anticipate, Greece is growing faster than the U.K. and outperforming it in financial markets. That's because Greek citizens, who rejected bailout terms from EU creditors in a July 2015 referendum, never embraced a rupture with Europe or the return to a drachma-based economy. Now that Europe is leading the developed world in growth, productivity and job creation after the euro gained 14.2 percent last year !!!8212; the most among 16 major currencies and the strongest appreciation since 2003 !!!8212; Greece is the biggest beneficiary and Britain is the new sick man of Europe.
End Quote

Of course he might be considered an expert observer which does make his opinion suspect.

Another quote
For the first time in at least five years, U.K. growth is inferior to the euro zone's, and 53 economists surveyed by Bloomberg predict that Europe's superior increase in gross domestic product last year will continue through 2019. The same analysts also forecast that Greece will overtake Britain in GDP growth. They expect Greece to see its GDP rise 2.15 percent this year and 2.2 percent in 2019 as the U.K. grows 1.4 percent and 1.5 percent. The euro zone is poised to expand 2.2 percent and 1.8 percent during the next 24 months, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
End quote

I can not quote the whole article and I have used paragraphs that support my opinion. I look forward to reading further quotes from this article posted by Brexiters

I just can't resist returning to this post. The EU Commission has revised its forecast for Greek GDP growth downwards from 2.1% to 1.6%.

https://euobserver.com/economic/139825

Tromking

ilovehouses wrote: »

No he doesn't - the context is correct. Employers transfer money into employees bank accounts but that money comes from consumers.

Wages may (or may not) go up post brexit but that's a decision consumers will make. Consumers aren't that honest (even with themselves) - when asked if they'd pay a little bit more for higher wages for people at the bottom of the supply chain, a free-range chicken, green energy etc. they're completely on board until the bill arrives.

Sites like this are a testament to the fact that what consumers say they'll do and what they actually do can be quite different.

The last time I looked employers decide what they pay their workers. Consumers don’t decide pay rates, dictate profit margins or the level of investment needed to improve profitability. The idea that a constant supply of cheap EU labour is needed to keep the price of stuff down is a myth. Some British businesses became lazy and inefficient in the face of this mass migration, it needs to end.

Thrugelmir

Tromking wrote: »

The last time I looked employers decide what they pay their workers. Consumers don’t decide pay rates, dictate profit margins or the level of investment needed to improve profitability. The idea that a constant supply of cheap EU labour is needed to keep the price of stuff down is a myth. Some British businesses became lazy and inefficient in the face of this mass migration, it needs to end.

Minimum wage along with pension auto enrollment has seen an end to that.

Chinese imports is what keeps the price of "stuff" down.

wunferall

cogito wrote: »

Did you read my post or did you just fail to understand it?

:T
Maybe I need to simplify for them?

Think of a manager (Barnier) with a football team, obviously needing the goalie (France) and the striker(Germany).
What happens when (even just a few of) the other nine players (25 in the case of the EU without the UK in it) decide to stand still;sit down; walk off; or (worse) take shots at their own goal?
:think:


Who chose Michel Barnier? Jean-Claude Juncker.
Who does Barnier report directly to? Jean-Claude Juncker.
Who does J-C Juncker report dorectly to? Angela Merkel (remember the infamous phone call last May following Juncker's dinner meeting with Theresa May?).
Because Barnier has history of resentment of the UK? Who knows - but I for one am not in the least surprised at the obstinate tone from him.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/27/eu-appoints-former-french-minister-who-blames-britain-for-losing/

wunferall

cogito wrote: »

Yes and I have no doubt that HM Customs know exactly when I enter the UK. What they don't know is when I leave as they only carry out a visual.

That's why they have no clue as to who is in or out of the country at any time.

Sorry but they do know.
You know when you hand your passport over at check-in for your flight?
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/exit-checks-on-passengers-leaving-the-uk/exit-checks-fact-sheet

(It works at ferry ports etc. too. Mine was taken and checked at Hull some weeks ago when I went via Zeebrugge.)

kabayiri

Is there a chance we can refine this inflation argument at all?

It is a bit stale.

It is true that the pound value has impacted prices. Alongside this there is a shortage of milk fats in Europe, and that has a significant impact as well.

Interestingly, the producers who have weathered the storm better than others, some have done so through 'premiumisation'.

In the case of something like chocolate, richer; darker chocolate sold more as a special treat, can generate good return for less product.

Now, this could be seen as bad. But....haven't we been worrying about poor food and obesity for a long time now? Surely, we can use some of these adjustments to change our relationship with food.

It's coming anyway. Most people will have noticed the sugar tax on fizzy drinks coming shortly.

Brexit obviously raises many challenges, but it does not define how we respond to them. Globalisation raises new challenges. Energy security raises new challenges. It's part of life.

tracey3596

ilovehouses wrote: »

No I didn't. It's not a binary IF (inflation has peaked) THEN (wage increases will be ahead of inflation)

It's an IF (inflation has peaked) AND (the forecast wage increases materialise) THEN (wage increases will be ahead of inflation).

Wages have lagged inflation for years and current inflation is 3% so it's a bit early for the :T smilie.

And

ilovehouses wrote: »

The usual caveats to what? You haven't made a point.
What do you think it is to do with?

Since you're very obviously misinterpreting my posts it seems obvious that you're just attempting to bicker.

Re: the first quote that was not said.
If inflation has peaked and wages rise as planned then wages will be ahead of inflation.
Since they have been behind for a while, surely to be ahead is better?

Re: the second.
Read the headline for the point of the post and then attempt a basic grasp of what a caveat is.
Also try to understand that it's probably not possible to sell more of something than has been made.

Thrugelmir

kabayiri wrote: »

Is there a chance we can refine this inflation argument at all?

It is a bit stale.

Many inflationary impacts are global and outside of the UK's control. The BOE's remit is purely to maintain financial stability. Being independent there's no political bias, i.e. an election looming. Which could influence policy.

cogito

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Many inflationary impacts are global and outside of the UK's control. The BOE's remit is purely to maintain financial stability. Being independent there's no political bias, i.e. an election looming. Which could influence policy.

You don't think that the BoE showed any bias before the referendum?