Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

Incredible_1

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Biggest threat to the banking industry is jobs. Head of Deutsche Bank reckons that a third will eventually be replaced by technology. Brexit impact will be minimal in the longer term.

But the remainers must try their lies.
And they are lies, pure and simple.
75,000 we were told.
75,000 jobs in banking will go due to Brexit.
The reality:
Under 5,000 according to the FT.
https://www.ft.com/content/931b1b1a-df49-11e7-a8a4-0a1e63a52f9c

Thrugelmir

Incredible_1 wrote: »

But the remainers must try their lies.
And they are lies, pure and simple.
75,000 we were told.
75,000 jobs in banking will go due to Brexit.
The reality:
Under 5,000 according to the FT.
https://www.ft.com/content/931b1b1a-df49-11e7-a8a4-0a1e63a52f9c

Kraft took Cadbury production to Poland in 2010.

Now Cadbury products are again being produced in the UK.

The reality is that the actions of individual people have considerable impact.

Incredible_1

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Kraft took Cadbury production to Poland in 2010.

Now Cadbury products are again being produced in the UK.

The reality is that the actions of individual people have considerable impact.

You missed one vital word I think.
"The reality is that the actions of individual people can have considerable impact."

Cadbury is owned by Modelez and I suspect one reason for some production returning from Poland was the uproar caused by production moving in the first place following job losses year-on-year in the UK.

Herzlos

Incredible_1 wrote: »

But the remainers must try their lies.
And they are lies, pure and simple.
75,000 we were told.
75,000 jobs in banking will go due to Brexit.
The reality:
Under 5,000 according to the FT.
https://www.ft.com/content/931b1b1a-df49-11e7-a8a4-0a1e63a52f9c

Firewalled, so I don't know what's actually in the article (it does matter). Presumably, since this is also discussing the future, it's a dreaded survey?
Why are surveys to be automatically disregarded if they don't suit your point?

"will" or predicted?
I'm confident it'll be more than 5,000, depending on the deal we get. That said, losing 5,000 bankers will still hurt us pretty badly.



Remainers at least seem to be able to put their hands up when predictions don't play out, but you still need to remember this: the decisions that'll cause bankers to have to move into the EU haven't happened yet, this is all guesswork, but based on the red lines from May and the EU, we're going to lose financial passporting and the EU won't allow us to simply brass-plate to get round it.

Regardless of how many jobs we lose (we can agree it's more than zero?), that's a bad thing, since as far as I can tell, we've got nothing to replace them with, except busy and redundant work to handle being outside of the EU. How many customs inspectors do we need to hire to counteract the economic loss of a banker? 10? 20?

Herzlos

Incredible_1 wrote: »

Merkel's days ARE numbered!
:T

Merkel, SPD under renewed fire over German coalition deal
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-germany-politics/merkel-spd-under-renewed-fire-over-german-coalition-deal-idUKKBN1FW1C0

So what impact does that have on Brexit?
Without Merkel, will the new Chancellor be more or less supportive of giving us a good deal? Will this disruption still allow a deal to be settled before we drop out?

Incredible_1

Britain not diminished by Brexit, says BP boss

“There are a lot of countries around the world that would like trade deals with Britain bilaterally down the road, I hear that a lot,” Mr Dudley said in an interview with The Times. “I don’t think British influence is diminished."

He also says that the impact upon BP of Brexit will be "very minor".

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/britain-not-diminished-by-brexit-says-bp-boss-68qk35rjl


Oh dear ilovehouses, this one is paywalled too.
But look, you can get access cheap enough for now.-

Incredible_1

Herzlos wrote: »

Firewalled, so I don't know ...........................

I know.
I have read your posts and I understand that you have difficulty.

We have record employment levels AND evidence that few are moving and still you worry.
Plus posts of new finance jobs coming. Why are you ignoring that?
Oh and it's not paywalled for me. Regardless, there have been plenty posts about how few jobs the industry are actually saying now will be lost.

Herzlos wrote: »

So what impact does that have on Brexit?
Without Merkel, will the new Chancellor be more or less supportive of giving us a good deal? Will this disruption still allow a deal to be settled before we drop out?

I wonder why I bother but here goes.
1:

Herzlos wrote: »

So what impact does that have on Brexit?

Wait until it happens and see. If you want guesses try a psychic; it's likely to be just as reliable. what it does for sure is introduce uncertainty into the EU which helps the UK via the "divide and conquer" scenario.
2:

Herzlos wrote: »

Without Merkel, will the new Chancellor be more or less supportive of giving us a good deal?

Tell us who it will be and we'll have more chance of answering that.
3:

Herzlos wrote: »

Will this disruption still allow a deal to be settled before we drop out?

Since it looks increasingly unlikely that a deal will be reached just now surely anything would be an improvement from your POV.

Incredible_1

ilovehouses wrote: »

Or production was moved to take the pressure off Birmingham whilst a factory investment took place.

Given the trade deficit it's hard to see UK consumers as having a particular interest in checking factory codes to determine the location of production. Unless chocoholics are different.

And prior to that?

The five hundred workers at Cadbury!!!8217;s Somerdale chocolate factory in Keynsham near Bristol learned on 3 October 2007 that most of their highly paid, permanent, solidly pensioned jobs were to be moved to a new factory in Poland, not because they had done anything wrong, or because their products weren!!!8217;t selling, or because the factory was unprofitable, but because their Polish replacements could do the same job for less than one fifth of the money.

https://www.lrb.co.uk/v39/n08/james-meek/somerdale-to-skarbimierz

And people like to know where what they are eating is made. YOU might not but I do, for one.

ukcarper

Theophile wrote: »

Doesn't really matter what I think they were voting for, nor what you think they were voting for.
The ballot paper was clear:

It will if we still have to be subject to 4 freedoms and ECJ, I can see that even though I voted remain but then I have accepted result and am not paying it lip service.

tracey3596

"Brexit to mean widespread EU spending cuts: budget commissioner"

The European Union will have to cut spending in nearly all areas to deal with the gap that net contributor Britain leaves after its departure, Budget Commissioner Guenther Oettinger said on Monday.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-eu-budget/brexit-to-mean-widespread-eu-spending-cuts-budget-commissioner-idUKKBN1FW1G7


Oh but hang on, didn't Juncker ask for a budget increase?
:whistle: