Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

System

tracey3596 wrote: »

Oh come on. You're doing no more than trying to perpetuate a myth. It's time you stopped paying so much attention to the pro-EU propaganda so prevalent in mainstream UK media.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/eu-fantasises-about-seeing-david-davis-sidelined-in-brexit-talks-v2lrqw8rn

Since you probably won't have access to The Times, here's a version from the same group of publications.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/5230303/eu-bosses-fantasise-about-seeing-david-davis-sidelined-after-brussels-chief-negotiator-holds-talks-with-senior-uk-official-and-not-brexit-secretary/

You go on about this as if there's been no similar happenings on the EU side when we've all seen Juncker, Tusk, Barnier, Verhofstadt, and others competing for more control. Yet there's no carp about sidelining or "increased involvement" when for example Juncker went running to Merkel after he had met May in Downing Street or when Macron met Barnier in July to add his twopenceworth.

It looks like you're beyond clutching for straws, rather you're making last desperate dives.

It's not my fault you're incapable of carrying out a reasoned analysis and require an official memo before accepting what is as plain as day.

Can't see the big deal personally - if Davis has been sidelined and Robbins has become more influential in the negotiations what's the problem? It's not as if Davis covered himself in glory in 2017.

tracey3596

ilovehouses wrote: »

A talking head on Bloomberg a couple of days ago reckoned that sterling was being priced with the expectation that behind the scenes negotiations on the transition were already well advanced.

I can't find any evidence that's the case although I'm sure the more formal negotiating structure headed by Davis is just a front and that May/ Robbins are involved outside of that structure.

Some of the more strident brexiteers won't be very happy but personally I expect the transitional arrangements to look exactly the same as full EU membership. That's the whole point of them - to provide a period of known rules to allow a orderly transition to the new rules.

It's difficult to find ANY evidence of how Sterling is priced - because there is no such beast.
From another angle I read that Brexit was priced with a no-deal possibility built-in and that if Brexit instead goes smoothly, "The British Pound could be one of the best-performing currencies in 2018 argue analysts at a leading international financial services provider."

https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/gbp-live-today/8275-mufg-pound-forecast-2018

System

tracey3596 wrote: »

It's difficult to find ANY evidence of how Sterling is priced - because there is no such beast.
From another angle I read that Brexit was priced with a no-deal possibility built-in and that if Brexit instead goes smoothly, "The British Pound could be one of the best-performing currencies in 2018 argue analysts at a leading international financial services provider."

https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/gbp-live-today/8275-mufg-pound-forecast-2018

You don't need evidence of how Sterling is priced. You accept it's not random, set by the market and influenced by events and forecasts don't you?

I couldn't get your link to work but it's silly season at the moment with commentators in a rush to make 'out there' forecasts for 2018 to grab some attention. A forecast of Sterling being one of the best performing currencies with a smooth no-deal brexit priced in is certainly out there - not that I'll be complaining at $1.60 or €1.25.

EDIT: Just got your link to work. There's nothing about a no-deal brexit being 'built in' into the forecast. You've misinterpreted that.

..an important positive implication for the Pound is that the risk of a more disorderly 'No Deal' Brexit outcome has diminished and the pound should strengthen if fears over a more disruptive and harder Brexit outcome do not materialise,"

tracey3596

ilovehouses wrote: »

You don't need evidence of how Sterling is priced. You accept it's not random, set by the market and influenced by events and forecasts don't you?

And yet you said ..........

ilovehouses wrote: »

I can't find any evidence that's the case

Make your mind up.

ilovehouses wrote: »

EDIT: Just got your link to work. There's nothing about a no-deal brexit being 'built in' into the forecast. You've misinterpreted that.

No I have not, read it again. It very clearly says:

"The Pound’s ongoing resilience continues to support our view from over a year ago that a lot of bad news was already priced in," says Derek Halpenny, European Head of Global Markets Research who is based at MUFG's London office.

Like almost everything else, there are opposing views and I'm certainly not trying to suggest which view might end up being the right one once the proverbial dust settles.
To paraphrase your earlier comment though, it's not my fault you're incapable of carrying out a reasoned analysis and require another read of what has been posted before accepting what is as plain as day.

System

tracey3596 wrote: »

No I have not, read it again. It very clearly says:

I have read it again. Their forecast of a resurgent Sterling in 2018 is based upon bad news (no deal) being priced in but not coming to pass.

i.e. the forecast isn't based on a no deal being 'built in' as you said. Just the opposite in fact. Not that difficult is it?

A smoother, softer brexit accompanied by a decent trade deal is positive for sterling. Nothing has changed.

gfplux

Herzlos wrote: »

So Farage is claiming that it's all about Immigration, despite protests from most internet Brexiteers that it's about trade and control. He's also saying that Barnier admitted that migration hasn't even been discussed yet. Should it have been? Have team Brexit got a stance on migration yet? Any impact reviews?



Indeed it is, but with essentially a 2 party state that's not how it actually works.
I suspect there are a lot more people who'll vote for Tory to keep a Labour MP out (holding their nose or otherwise) and visa versa than either party would like to admit. There was a campaign up here by the Tories "Vote Labour, get SNP", for instance. Most pro-Tory propoganda/comments I've seen tend to be anti-Labour instead "just think how bad Labour would have done it", "anything but Corbyn" and so on.

Herzlos, I am a loss to understand why “the odious man” would think immigration would be discussed during the complex Brexit negotiations. Immigration is entirely in Britains hands.

There has been a great deal of discussion about Citizens Rights. Agreement up to now should reassure workers that they are nearly OK. However the strange decisions that the Home Office have made and been well publicised continues to undermine that confidence and the over publicised acts of discrimination is not helping Britain to hang on to skilled EU workers.

I am guessing there will be a reworking of the present immigration rules that apply to non EU citizens and extended to EU Citizens. Britain should hope that work is being done on this in the background. Many in industry want changes to the minimum earnings rule that favours working in the South East and also makes it difficult for a trailing Spouse. I do not understand why Britain is waiting to change these rules.

This is Britains BIG OPPORTUNITY to control immigration and bias it in favour of skills needed by the UK.

It is strange there is no debate about this?
With a new Minister for Immigration Now in post Caroline Nokes might bring this in to focus.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minister_of_State_for_Immigration

JACKBLACK

Originally Posted by BobQ
Why are people incapable of considering the issue (what Blair says about Brexit) rather than just demonstrating their dislike of the messenger.

Arklight

tracey3596 wrote: »

It's difficult to find ANY evidence of how Sterling is priced - because there is no such beast.
From another angle I read that Brexit was priced with a no-deal possibility built-in and that if Brexit instead goes smoothly, "The British Pound could be one of the best-performing currencies in 2018 argue analysts at a leading international financial services provider."

https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/gbp-live-today/8275-mufg-pound-forecast-2018

Oh wow Tracey. You found a sketchy website for amateur currency traders who are purely interested in buying pounds sterling and within it there's an article recommending people buy pounds sterling.

cogito

I have yet to see a single comment on this thread that reveals a glimmer of understanding of how currency markets work or the factors that drive them. This especially applies to remainers who revel in any news which supports their lost cause and deride any news that doesn't.

Thrugelmir

gfplux wrote: »

I have not managed to find anything from the Brexit side suggesting what Britain expects to achieve in the talks.

Orderly exit. Hardly a big deal. As the world as it has done for centuries. Will take it in it's stride and move forward. Berlin Wall lasted for 28 years. Now it's consigned to the history books.