Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

Carl31

Joeskeppi wrote: »

This is logical though isn't it? While we can operate tariff-free, orders will increase as the pound drops.

Once we have no trade deal, those orders will dry up.

This seems pretty simple to me. All you're showing here is that being in the EU is good for trade, this is not a revelation.

maybe, but all this activity is gradual, businesses adapt and project where they are going to be, its not something they wake up one day and have to deal with

If people are ordering UK goods, then they have use for them, that wont change post brexit. Cost will be a factor, but thats not the only factor. People dont always just buy the cheapest

Rinoa

tracey3596 wrote: »

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-economy-factories/uk-factories-enjoy-best-month-for-new-orders-since-1988-cbi-idUKKBN1DL158

Biggest increase in factory orders for 3 decades and 3 hours after it was reported the BBC news hasn't mentioned it. Not even in the business news.

About as impartial as the North Korea Broadcasting Corp.

Herzlos

Rinoa wrote: »

And yet the remainers told us we'd be in recession by now, not posting the best factory orders for 3 decades.

That must be annoying.

We haven't left yet, so our predictions based on leaving haven't come to anything. That's a good thing.

However, *why* are our orders up, and how will Brexit impact them?

Our orders are up because we've become cheap due to the exchange rate and free movement. If we introduce tariffs or customs barriers, we get more expensive

Thrugelmir

Herzlos wrote: »

Our orders are up because we've become cheap due to the exchange rate and free movement. If we introduce tariffs or customs barriers, we get more expensive

We don't just export to the EU. Some elsewhere. A lot for domestic consumption. Export trade isn't the answer to the UK's structural issues either. Goes far deeper and more complex.

mayonnaise

tracey3596 wrote: »

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-economy-factories/uk-factories-enjoy-best-month-for-new-orders-since-1988-cbi-idUKKBN1DL158

That's good news, tracey.

As well as weaker sterling, a rebound in growth in the euro zone and beyond has helped British factories.

tracey3596

mayonnaise wrote: »

That's good news, tracey.

So when things go badly it's the fault of Brexit supporters but when things go well it's because of the EU?
:rotfl:

You missed the explanation in your post that follows your very selective quote. It goes like this.

“UK manufacturers are once more performing strongly as global growth and the lower level of sterling continue to support demand. Output growth has picked up again, and export order books match the highest in more than 20 years,” said Anna Leach, the CBIs’ head of economic intelligence.

See that little bit in there?
"Global growth".
Not just EU then.

mayonnaise

tracey3596 wrote: »

And who says it is trade with the EU27 that is increasing? That's not what evidence suggests.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2017/oct/10/markets-uk-trade-manufacturing-growth-productivity-imf-global-economy-business-live?page=with:block-59dc9137e4b00593b4d686d2#block-59dc9137e4b00593b4d686d2

Exports of goods to non-EU countries decreased by £4.0 billion (8.8%) between the three months to May 2017 and the three months to August 2017.

Exports of goods to the EU increased by £1.7 billion (4.1%) between the three months to May 2017 and the three months to August 2017

Matt_L

Herzlos wrote: »

We haven't left yet, so our predictions based on leaving haven't come to anything. That's a good thing.

However, *why* are our orders up, and how will Brexit impact them?

Our orders are up because we've become cheap due to the exchange rate and free movement. If we introduce tariffs or customs barriers, we get more expensive

No we haven't but we were warned that a simple vote to leave would put us in recession and that thousands of jobs would be lost. It never happened so those predictions were completely wrong as we had predicted, now we see the same fear mongers making similar predictions, when will you ever learn:doh:

Filo25

setmefree2 wrote: »

Really?

I actually think things are looking quite positive at the moment.

The Ireland border issue is the biggest problem at present, if Ireland maintains its line on the issue (and their foreign minister reiterated it in an interview today) then I still don't see an easy solution there.

mayonnaise

Matt_L wrote: »

No we haven't but we were warned that a simple vote to leave would put us in recession and that thousands of jobs would be lost. It never happened so those predictions were completely wrong as we had predicted, now we see the same fear mongers making similar predictions, when will you ever learn:doh:

Yes ok Matt, we've been through this before matey.