Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

Zero_Gravitas

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Why the mass hysteria?

Never used to be the British way.

What hysteria? There are Tory MPs on the radio seriously talking about whether they can get the 48 names for a vote.

Under those circumstances and given the ridiculous position this government has managed to get itself into, then discussion about who might take over is perfectly reasonable and apposite to this thread.

kabayiri

Filo25 wrote: »

How far we have come from the sunny uplands of Brexit........
...

You think that good things happen overnight?

That's a British disease now : short termism.

All the chat is fretting about who is going to pick your turnips this season.

I think it just shows a lack of ambition personally. The world will change massively in the next 30 years, and we need to decide what our priorities and ambitions are.

(or maybe you are happy with being owned lock; stock; and barrel; by China)

Filo25

kabayiri wrote: »

You think that good things happen overnight?

That's a British disease now : short termism.

All the chat is fretting about who is going to pick your turnips this season.

I think it just shows a lack of ambition personally. The world will change massively in the next 30 years, and we need to decide what our priorities and ambitions are.

(or maybe you are happy with being owned lock; stock; and barrel; by China)

I don't mind taking a short term hit if someone can convince me there is a much more attractive long term return to come, the problem with WTO brexit is it just looks like a short term hit followed by a longterm hit..

2 years ago there was no short term hit for Brexit, the EU would fold as we had them over a barrel and it was all short term and long term upside, forgive if I'm not buying any "jam tomorrow" scenario from the people who sold the British public that pile of rubbish.

Moby

ilovehouses wrote: »

[everyone immediately googles how he voted in a referendum that happened over two years ago]

Wikipedia have it right..



That final sentence, although factually correct, has already been edited off.

Raab voted to leave but he's not in the taliban, he's a pragmatist. He's regarded as one of the 'up and coming'. Come out Boris.....wherever you are.....he's no-where to be seen.....not like Boris....he normally loves the limelight!

kabayiri

Filo25 wrote: »

I don't mind taking a short term hit if someone can convince me there is a much more attractive long term return to come, the problem with WTO brexit is it just looks like a short term hit followed by a longterm hit..

2 years ago there was no short term hit for Brexit, the EU would fold as we had them over a barrel and it was all short term and long term upside, forgive if I'm not buying any "jam tomorrow" scenario from the people who sold the British public that pile of rubbish.

Oh it was a pile of rubbish sales pitch. No doubt about that.

And...I didn't believe any of that bus rubbish either.

There is this pretence that everything will carry on being just great, either inside or outside the EU.

The longer term evidence suggests not. The EU has been consistently losing world trade.

There could be a better alternative for us, but turning the UK into some mass migration sweat shop isn't it.

Herzlos

kabayiri wrote: »

A successful exit is obviously possible.

You trigger A50; wait a couple of years - possibly have a brew; then you exit.

Voila. You have left the EU.

Yeah, that's true. It's trivial to "leave the EU". What's difficult is doing such in a way that gives us a functioning country and positioned in such a way to reap the rewards.


So yes, you're right. I feel the cost of brexit is too high.

Herzlos

kabayiri wrote: »

There could be a better alternative for us, but turning the UK into some mass migration sweat shop isn't it.

There could be. But no-one has been able to figure out what it is or why we need to leave the EU to do so.


The EU's share of trade is dropping, but it's still very high, and still accounts for almost half of our trade. Most trade is still going to be with geographic neighbours, which is the EU.


Trade is growing in the far east, in countries the EU already has or is working on a trade deal.


You keep mentioning India, but any trade deal we make with India will be unpopular (migration), and the reason the EU doesn't have a good trading deal with India already is because we veto'd it.


So I genuinely can't figure out why leaving the EU helps us take better advantage of trade opportunities around the world. All it seems to do is let us make poorer deals faster, in such a way that trading with our largest and closest trading partner becomes harder.


Now, if we could push the UK over to off the shore of Singapore, I'd agree with you, but last I checked we're stuck here.

Filo25

kabayiri wrote: »

Oh it was a pile of rubbish sales pitch. No doubt about that.

And...I didn't believe any of that bus rubbish either.

There is this pretence that everything will carry on being just great, either inside or outside the EU.

The longer term evidence suggests not. The EU has been consistently losing world trade.

There could be a better alternative for us, but turning the UK into some mass migration sweat shop isn't it.

Thanks Kabiyiri its that rare thing on here, a nuanced view, not making out everything is right on one side or the other, and awful on the other one :T

I fuly agree that the country has challenges to face going forwards, but I think a lot of those can be dealt with within the EU as it stands (and I also agree that the EU is a flawed institution in many ways, and is also prone to changing in unpredictable ways going forwards).

The problem I have with a lot of Brexiteer politicians is that it seems Leaving the EU has become the only goal that matters, irrespective of the damage it causes, there is no long term plan, just Leave the EU and somehow everything will be well.

On trade my view is that you can still trade with the emerging Asian economies from within the EU, I am not convinced we are likely to get dramatically better access to those markets for a reasonable price from outside the EU compared to inside it.

On immigration I think successive governments have helped encourage hostility by not actually applying some of the controls on migration which were already allowed by EU rules, I agree its in nobody's interest to have a longterm low wage, low productivity workforce in the UK, but I think that is fundamentally a UK rather than EU issue, maybe it is the price we paid for our more flexible Labour marketsm with the positive offset being the much lower unemployment levels.

The flipside of that though is that the population is aging, so if we don't allow significant immigration to kick that can down the road a bit we are probably facing a growing tax burden on the smaller percentage of the population who will be of working age in future.

I will agree with your fundamental argument though it would be nice to have a long term plan for the UK economy to improve relevant skills, infrastructure, etc, but the problem is we don't tend to do long term very well, and much of our electorate generally doesn't seem very interested in it sadly

kabayiri

Filo25 wrote: »

...
The flipside of that though is that the population is aging, so if we don't allow significant immigration to kick that can down the road a bit we are probably facing a growing tax burden on the smaller percentage of the population who will be of working age in future.
...

What of China's approach? Their average age will be 50 by the year 2060, at current rate.

Their answer is a truly massive investment in robots, particularly the newer breed, which don't require independent workspace.

Just my view, but I really don't think we can afford to go the other way - workforce wise. Once you have ridden out the capital costs, human labour is always going to be more expensive.

It might fail in China of course, but they seem to have a plan and the commitment to implement it. I've got an invite to one of the provinces from an old colleague, but making time and keeping domestic sweet...hmm.

Filo25

Lots of speculation that Boris Johnson may be about to resign, things could get interesting if he goes.