Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

Zero_Gravitas

cogito wrote: »

I asked earlier if you had read Article 50. There is not a single word in it which suggests that if it were invoked, it could be revoked. If it was the intention that it could be revoked, it would only have needed a single sentence to say so. You're clutching at straws again.

I don’t think citing the person who actually wrote Article 50 is clutching at straws. If anything, the straw clutching appears to be by you.

gfplux

When negotiating it is important to consider what the other side want.
That can change over the course of the negotiations.

So what does the EU want from the Brexit negotiations Now, today, July 2018.

vivatifosi

buglawton wrote: »

Which will it be?

1. Reformulate the cabinet into a Remainer-biased one.
or
2. Bye bye May, hello WTO.

Of course in her heart of hearts May would prefer to reformulate the British electorate into a Remainer-biased one.

Or 3. The Tory government falls, triggering a GE. Unless May steadies the ship, this is a very real risk. Friday's meeting imo saw a move from open division to brinkmanship. Possible scenarios... one side has to back down, which I can't currently see, a calming moderator needs to step in (but who), or this will escalate. If the government does fall, they face a very real risk of being punished for failing to deliver anything.

ukcarper

vivatifosi wrote: »

Or 3. The Tory government falls, triggering a GE. Unless May steadies the ship, this is a very real risk. Friday's meeting imo saw a move from open division to brinkmanship. Possible scenarios... one side has to back down, which I can't currently see, a calming moderator needs to step in (but who), or this will escalate. If the government does fall, they face a very real risk of being punished for failing to deliver anything.

The worse thing that can happen would be a GE now I can't see any party winning an overall majority.

The other thing is as before referendum people are under estimating the strength of anti EU feelings in the general population and the effect that would have on Vote.

Lornapink

Lungboy wrote: »

The EU have said that we can rescind A50 and end all this nonsense, so that would be the status quo option.

Provide a link to the EU stating this. I'm not interested in any other links, nor quotes from the bloke that authored A50.


A key Remain argument has always been that remain means certainty. If this is not the case, their key argument falls apart. Show me the EU's wording on us revoking A50 and the terms the UK would face thereafter.

Herzlos

I'll look it up when I get to a desk. Though without being able to cite the document or author, I'm not sure what you'll accept as valid.

Have you got any links yet about what Leave means?

Compared to Leave, almost anything has more certainty.

cogito

Zero_Gravitas wrote: »

I don’t think citing the person who actually wrote Article 50 is clutching at straws. If anything, the straw clutching appears to be by you.

I'm not clutching at anything. I was simply pointing out the flaw in the argument.

Herzlos

That said; it's not even down to what the EU says, it's down to legal interpretation of the article itself. In contract law (EU based?) That also means any vague terms can be interpreted to favour the smaller side (UK). Thus unless article 50 says we rescind perks (it doesnt) or that we revert to a new member status (it doesn't), then we can withdraw it and join exactly as we left. But with extra embarrassment and a few hundred lost jobs.

The lies about it being impossible to unwind are to make you think crashing off the cliff is (a) inevitable and (b) the EUs fault.

Can you cite anything that claims otherwise?

ukcarper

Herzlos wrote: »

That said; it's not even down to what the EU says, it's down to legal interpretation of the article itself. In contract law (EU based?) That also means any vague terms can be interpreted to favour the smaller side (UK). Thus unless article 50 says we rescind perks (it doesnt) or that we revert to a new member status (it doesn't), then we can withdraw it and join exactly as we left. But with extra embarrassment and a few hundred lost jobs.

The lies about it being impossible to unwind are to make you think crashing off the cliff is (a) inevitable and (b) the EUs fault.

Can you cite anything that claims otherwise?

If only it was as simple as that.

Lornapink

Zero_Gravitas wrote: »

Which, according to the polling data (and watching this abysmal government) has actually already happened...

As with Question Time and Any Questions audiences, polls are being infiltrated and targeted by crazed Remainers - I see them on Twitter & elsewhere explaining how to infiltrate polls, and before you say pollsters are 'experts' that ensure their samples reflect reality, recall how the polling consensus was for a huge Hillary win, some gave her 93% chance of victory on the election eve.

Polls also reflect the fact Remainers have never stopped campaigning and this of course has had an illusory effect but this would be annulled in a second referendum once Leave campaigners came out of hibernation.

The vote for Leave would be increased as Gov't would not this time campaign for Remain and also Project Fear is more or less a laughing stock now.

Lastly Remain would be confounded by questions like 'what will be our annual club fee over the next 5 / 10 / 15 years, not forgetting how Remainers adore 15 yr numptycasts.