Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

Rinoa

mayonnaise wrote: »

True.
But as someone already mentioned above, how the hell did we manage to clutch this deal while still being a full member of the EU? :think:

57% of our exports already go to non EU countries. This is a small reminder how the importance of EU trade is slowly diminishing year by year.

buglawton

mayonnaise wrote: »

True.
But as someone already mentioned above, how the hell did we manage to clutch this deal while still being a full member of the EU? :think:

I read it was something to do with the UK sending some of it's fleet on manoeuvres into the Pacific as part of an ongoing UK-AU defence alliance.

So maybe the fact that unlike most of the EU, the UK hitting its 2% of GDP NATO defence budget target may have come good for the UK taxpayer. Even with the build being mainly in Adelaide, BAE being able to amortize the huge R&D over this wider market is very good for UK PLC.

Talking about that 2%, it's rather ironic that the EU is trying to exclude a post Britain UK from defense-strategic Galileo considering our fulsome contribution towards EU security of the past decades...

buglawton

Rinoa wrote: »

57% of our exports already go to non EU countries. This is a small reminder how the importance of EU trade is slowly diminishing year by year.

Interesting, in 2012 it exceeded 51% to non-EU for the first time since the pre-EU 1970s. So the trend is obvious...
To be fair, most of our manufacturing sector benefits from industrial culture that arrived from Japan and latterly Germany, that must help exports to non EU.

Herzlos

Sorry to repeat myself; but the EU isn't trying to exclude 3rd country UK from Galileo. It'll get the same access as every other 3rd country.

That is; we can use it bit have no say or visibility into how it works behind the scenes.

Ballard

buglawton wrote: »

Joking aside, the EU is about to slap tariffs on some categories of USA imports. This would certainly result in retaliatory tariffs against the EU which includes the UK. If my understanding is correct it'll straight away affect lucrative Range Rover exports from the UK to the USA.

Had we not been in the EU it would be our Parliament what would be accountable for any such retaliatory tariffs that might hit our own exporters. I've got a feeling we'd not touch the idea and stay free trade.

I assume that you’re aware that the US was the first to instigate tariff rises on imports. What makes you think that they would have excluded the UK from the rises had we been outside the EU?

buglawton

Herzlos wrote: »

Sorry to repeat myself; but the EU isn't trying to exclude 3rd country UK from Galileo. It'll get the same access as every other 3rd country.

That is; we can use it bit have no say or visibility into how it works behind the scenes.

I guess you're referring to:
"Talking about that 2%, it's rather ironic that the EU is trying to exclude a post Britain UK from defense-strategic Galileo considering our fulsome contribution towards EU security of the past decades..."

The UK created a snafu when it got a clause put into the Galileo project that no non EU country can get the full defence-quality involvement in the project. The anti Brexit EU commission has seized on this:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/may/24/eu-split-exclusion-uk-galileo-brexit
The EU commission claims that the UK, as a third country, after it leaves the EU, cannot be trusted with sensitive material related to the project. << That will include the precision GPS decoding. We may get access to consumer/industrial level, if we pay...

If we hadn't put that legal clause in, the project that the UK has already heavily invested in could have continued with the UK as full partner. Due to that legal clause we 'Can't be trusted'. Curious mixing of the legal and the moral there...

buglawton

Ballard wrote: »

I assume that you’re aware that the US was the first to instigate tariff rises on imports. What makes you think that they would have excluded the UK from the rises had we been outside the EU?

Admirably careful wording there. Prior to the outbreak of this trade skirmish, the EU was happily taxing US car imports at 10% while the US was taxing EU cars at just 2.5%. It's this and other (perceived?) unfair arrangements that caused Trump to issue his broadside.

https://global.handelsblatt.com/politics/trump-may-point-eu-tariffs-ifo-says-899083
Imports into the US are not quite free, but pay a tariff of only 2.5 percent, compared with the EU tariff of 10 percent on US car imports

Enterprise_1701C

buglawton wrote: »

I am denying that there is any validity to the prediction that we are going to be worse off. Unless those predictions are assuming gross incompetence by UK Gov. In which case we're worse off either remain or leave.

That would only happen if Corbyn was PM and Momentum were running the country, he is nothing more than a puppet being controlled by them. That is why he could not resign his leadership when he lost the vote of no confidence 172-40. Anyone with an ounce of respect for the party he runs would have resigned at that point.

Rinoa

Interesting letter in the FT today:

We are a 95 per cent export manufacturer of high tech instrumentation, so we have a lot of experience in overseas trade. On May 24 the head of HM Revenue & Customs estimated that post-Brexit, import-export may cost industry £20bn extra at UK borders. With £10m of exports, 75 per cent outside the EU, and £1.5m of imports, 85% non-EU, we are in a good position to give a realistic figure for these costs.
All imports enter under Inward Processing Relief, and no taxes are paid at the border. Goods may remain in the UK for up to nine months free of duty and value added tax. Duty and VAT become payable if the goods are sold within the EU, but not if they are exported outside. When we sell our equipment to a Japanese company, we invoice free of VAT as an export. It collects ex-works and delivers worldwide, sometimes direct to a customer within the EU. It will invoice without VAT as, being based in Japan, it is not VAT registered. It is that company’s customer who must record and pay VAT, on the basis that it is an import even though the goods may have crossed no frontiers.
Our VAT and tax returns are made on a monthly and quarterly basis, with payment by direct debit. Every two to three years, HMRC audits our record-keeping. Maintaining this system requires a skilled person for one or two days a week — at a £50 hourly rate for 500 hours per year, the annual cost is £25,000. We also employ shipping agents at a £70,000 annual cost, of which over 90 per cent is transport charges. Our cost for import-export paperwork is about £32,000.
Our largest tax is the 20 per cent VAT charged on importing goods from the EU, just as from the US or Japan. This will not change after Brexit, although there may be a 3-5 per cent duty if no deal is done. The cost in additional paperwork will therefore be no more than 10 per cent of the present £32,000. We will incur an average 4 per cent duty on our £225,000 of EU imports, but will recover 95 per cent of this on exporting, so duties will cost the company about £500. Assuming we do business with the EU on terms no worse than the rest of the world, the cost will be around £3,700, or 0.04 per cent of our £10m turnover. Compared to currency exposure where rates can change by 1 per cent daily, this is a negligible figure, so Brexit on any terms will not change our business.
Jeremy Good
Director, Cryogenic Ltd, London W3, UK

chucknorris

Enterprise_1701C wrote: »

That would only happen if Corbyn was PM and Momentum were running the country, he is nothing more than a puppet being controlled by them. That is why he could not resign his leadership when he lost the vote of no confidence 172-40. Anyone with an ounce of respect for the party he runs would have resigned at that point.

The one thing that Jeremy Corbyn has done for me, is taught me to appreciate the (other) good labour MP's, and I have realised that they are good decent people, but who just happen to have different political views to me. Liz Kendall is someone that springs to mind.