Brexit, the economy and house prices part 5

Rinoa

In other news 1st quarter GDP has been upgraded from 0.1% to 0.2%. A small but positive move.

As every leftie BBC journo knows nothing good can ever happen in the UK economy.

They settled for 'Surprise uplift in UK growth'

Zero_Gravitas

buglawton wrote: »

Balderdash.. If leaving will make us worse off, why did joining slow down UK economic growth?

https://www.socialeurope.eu/eu-membership-accelerate-uk-economic-growth

...UK economy did not improve after joining the EU. Indeed, it clearly grew more slowly than it had in pre-accession decades.

...From 2.4% per annum from 1950-73 to 2.0% per annum for 1973-2007.

... (For) other major economies including the USA, Canada and Australia... the post-1973 slowdown was minor and much less than in the EU6.

1950-73 in the UK is often termed the ‘golden age’ in the UK, even by economists who argue that joining the EU was beneficial for UK economic growth.

It’s not very clear what you’re objecting to here. You certainly can’t argue that discretionary spend reduces when people are worse off, and you certainly can’t deny that all the predictions are that we are going to be worse off after brexit.

Unless you have any evidence to the contrary?

mrginge

Rinoa wrote: »

In case you only watch BBC headlines. Just breaking in Australia, possibly the biggest #DespiteBrexit yet: British defence giant BAE Systems has won the tender to design and manage the construction of nine anti-submarine warships. The deal represents the biggest peacetime building programme in Australian naval history and is worth $35 billion, or £20 billion. It is being reported that the clincher was Gavin Williamson’s decision to send Royal Navy ships to Australia and the Pacific.

Drip......

kabayiri

Zero_Gravitas wrote: »

It’s not very clear what you’re objecting to here. You certainly can’t argue that discretionary spend reduces when people are worse off, and you certainly can’t deny that all the predictions are that we are going to be worse off after brexit.

Unless you have any evidence to the contrary?

Changes in spending habits can have both plus and minus impacts though.

Typically, with fleet lease as an example, companies tightening their belts will run the cars for an additional year on the contract.

The result is lower car sales, but more maintenance business. Oddly, residuals tighten too, because of the reduction in supply at the other end.

We might have less demand for nail bars and car washes, because people have alternates for these. I don't think these are big tax revenue generators though.

mrginge

Zero_Gravitas wrote: »

It’s not very clear what you’re objecting to here. You certainly can’t argue that discretionary spend reduces when people are worse off, and you certainly can’t deny that all the predictions are that we are going to be worse off after brexit.

Unless you have any evidence to the contrary?

Surely you understand that if the economy grows then people are not worse off don’t you?

https://fullfact.org/economy/estimates-lower-gdp-growth-post-brexit-dont-mean-recession/

Moby

https://www.ft.com/content/6c16ccbe-7aec-11e8-8e67-1e1a0846c475
A millionaire Conservative party donor and Brexit supporter has said British companies who need access to the EU should move to Malta after Brexit.
Michael Ashcroft offered the advice to “ambitious” UK firms “looking to employ thousands or even tens of thousands of people in a EU base”.
The former Conservative deputy chairman, who has various business interests in Belize, was a prominent backer of the Leave campaign during the referendum.

Writing for the website ConservativeHome, he said: “As a hard-nosed, self-made businessman, I believe that Malta represents the best destination for ambitious UK firms that must have a post-Brexit presence in the European Union.”


Welcome to your future folks. Your leaders have so many plans in store for you. We'll be the new Singapore, Maccau, Hong Kong etc. Bargain basement Britain, ruled by individuals who will sell your gran for a trade deal.

buglawton

Zero_Gravitas wrote: »

It’s not very clear what you’re objecting to here. You certainly can’t argue that discretionary spend reduces when people are worse off, and you certainly can’t deny that all the predictions are that we are going to be worse off after brexit.

Unless you have any evidence to the contrary?

I am denying that there is any validity to the prediction that we are going to be worse off. Unless those predictions are assuming gross incompetence by UK Gov. In which case we're worse off either remain or leave.

Moby

Rinoa wrote: »

In case you only watch BBC headlines. Just breaking in Australia, possibly the biggest #DespiteBrexit yet: British defence giant BAE Systems has won the tender to design and manage the construction of nine anti-submarine warships. The deal represents the biggest peacetime building programme in Australian naval history and is worth $35 billion, or £20 billion. It is being reported that the clincher was Gavin Williamson’s decision to send Royal Navy ships to Australia and the Pacific.

Why wouldn't we have got this contract if we'd stayed in?

buglawton

Moby wrote: »

...Welcome to your future folks. Your leaders have so many plans in store for you. We'll be the new Singapore, Maccau, Hong Kong etc. Bargain basement Britain, ruled by individuals who will sell your gran for a trade deal.

I'd certainly take the bargain basement Singapore standard of living, thankyou. With their GDP/capita (economic output per person) being 27% higher than the UK's.

mayonnaise

Rinoa wrote: »

In case you only watch BBC headlines. Just breaking in Australia, possibly the biggest #DespiteBrexit yet: British defence giant BAE Systems has won the tender to design and manage the construction of nine anti-submarine warships. The deal represents the biggest peacetime building programme in Australian naval history and is worth $35 billion, or £20 billion. It is being reported that the clincher was Gavin Williamson’s decision to send Royal Navy ships to Australia and the Pacific.

The nine new ships will be built in Adelaide

(that's in Australia for the brexiteer reader).

The Turnbull government says the program will create 4000 jobs across the country* and create unprecedented local and global opportunities for businesses large and small.

(*) Australia

https://www.sbs.com.au/news/bae-wins-35-billion-australian-warship-building-program

the Australian vessels will be built in a government-owned shipyard in Adelaide, and few UK jobs will be created as a result

https://www.ft.com/content/845e88e0-7ac7-11e8-8e67-1e1a0846c475