Brexit, the economy and house prices (Part 3)

mayonnaise

Thanks for the new thread, cogito.

The 'Brexit boost' to Britain's economy categorically has not materialised — and probably never will

Article looking forward to Q3 and Q4/17, with more anemic growth to look forward to (as expected).

More interesting bit IMO:

The depreciation seen in the pound since the vote has not substantially boosted trade, as has historically been the case during periods of sterling declining.

http://uk.businessinsider.com/pantheon-macroeconomics-on-britains-economy-in-2017-2017-8

cogito

Tromking wrote: »

Here's hoping this relieves the downward pressure on wages and eases the crisis in some of our vital public services.

Let's hope so. The other side of the coin is that money that was previously sent to Poland and other countries will now stay in the UK and help the economy.

Rusty_Shackleton

Private_Church wrote: »

The referendum has made the political elite stand up and take notice and in future not to take the public for granted.

No, it hasn't and it won't. What it has done is allow a certain group of elites, plus the detestable likes of Aaron Banks, to show they can convince the country to vote against it's own economic interests, and get the public to ignore warnings from experts. The elites aren't going to change jack in the favour of the majority.

mayonnaise

Another day, another good news story from the Eurozone.

Brexit exodus from London 'to create 80,000 jobs'

(in Frankfurt)

The boost, fuelled by relocation plans and a banking exodus from London, will result in the creation of up to 87,667 new roles throughout the Rhein-Main-Region, the Frankfurt Main Finance group said.

"The job growth will further advance the economic strength of Frankfurt and the region. A real success story for all parties involved," Hubertus Vath, managing director of Frankfurt Main Finance, said.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/brexit-exodus-from-london-to-create-80000-jobs-in-frankfurt-a3619676.html

cogito

Rusty_Shackleton wrote: »

No, it hasn't and it won't. What it has done is allow a certain group of elites, plus the detestable likes of Aaron Banks, to show they can convince the country to vote against it's own economic interests, and get the public to ignore warnings from experts. The elites aren't going to change jack in the favour of the majority.

I'm not so sure about that. The government with all its resources couldn't persuade the people to vote to remain. Both sides lied bigtime but the government's weakness was that the entire electorate could see that Cameron had asked for little and got less despite his bluster.

One thing you can be quite sure of is that no government will ever again offer a referendum on anything except Scottish independence.

Rusty_Shackleton

cogito wrote: »

I'm not so sure about that. The government with all its resources couldn't persuade the people to vote to remain. Both sides lied bigtime but the government's weakness was that the entire electorate could see that Cameron had asked for little and got less despite his bluster.

One thing you can be quite sure of is that no government will ever again offer a referendum on anything except Scottish independence.

Oh god, don't get me wrong, there's nasty vested interests on both sides, the only absolute is that some elites or another would gain no matter what happens. On balance, I feel remaining is better overall. To pretend that leave was a victory for the little buy is delusional given the rich and powerful backers who include some truly nasty individuals (Banks, the guy behind Cambridge Analytics etc.) - brexit is not some revolution of the working and middle classes!

Completely agree on the no future referendums, but I've spelt out before why they're a stupid idea previously.

NineDeuce

Rusty_Shackleton wrote: »

Oh god, don't get me wrong, there's nasty vested interests on both sides, the only absolute is that some elites or another would gain no matter what happens. On balance, I feel remaining is better overall. To pretend that leave was a victory for the little buy is delusional given the rich and powerful backers who include some truly nasty individuals (Banks, the guy behind Cambridge Analytics etc.) - brexit is not some revolution of the working and middle classes!

Completely agree on the no future referendums, but I've spelt out before why they're a stupid idea previously.

Remain didnt lie. Osborne may have come up with some dubious exaggerations of facts about the economy, but again, this was all based upon fact.

It wasnt like saying £350m per week was going to the NHS and then having the same people vote against it in parliament because they knew it wouldnt happen...

Rusty_Shackleton

NineDeuce wrote: »

Remain didnt lie. Osborne may have come up with some dubious exaggerations of facts about the economy, but again, this was all based upon fact.

It wasnt like saying £350m per week was going to the NHS and then having the same people vote against it in parliament because they knew it wouldnt happen...

I agree, for example economic predictions were based on A50 being served day after referendum, didn't account for BoE's actions etc. That doesn't make them lies, just situations changing to what was considered likely to happen in foresight.

On the other hand, what I said about nasty vested interests on both sides is true!

Conrad

NineDeuce wrote: »

Always good to dream isnt it, especially when if you bothered to look at statistics they will tell you that immigration has not driven down wages. I know you will continue to tell yourself otherwise....

Wages at the lower end have been driven down due to massive supply of cheap labour, the BOE even agrees.


The point being MW becomes 'the wage' for many, whereas in the absence of massive labour supply it would drift up organically.


In any event there are many other downsides for me such as environmental pressure, congestion, building on farm land etc


Was life so bad for you prior to MASS immigration? Did we have no nurses, no caf! workers? Or did UK firms actually train up youngsters and offer them good jobs in order the firm capitalised on that training?


What do think of Canada, is it small minded and xenophobic? It choses the people and levels of immigration required. Yes sometimes high levels, but its a choice.

Conrad

Rusty_Shackleton wrote: »

I agree, for example economic predictions were based on A50 being served day after referendum, didn't account for BoE's actions etc. !

But over and again I said in the long campaign we are not jelly fish on a tide, that the BOE would pull levers in order to avoid downside, but you lot always ignored these sensible points.


I say all the time we will adapt and do what is needed to ensure Brexit success but you guys again ignore these points and think we will just let bad things happen to us


There will be no downturn related to the obviously minor change to the way we trade with EU, it's all just fear of change and hysteria.