Brexit, the economy and house prices (Part 3)

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Herzlos wrote: »

Oh I've tried debating the issues but the questions just get ignored.

Apologies if I've missed the posts where you admit mistakes

Now that first is a sentiment I recognise only too well in this thread especially, sadly.

Your apology is accepted gratefully; given the sheer number of posts at times it is sometimes all too easy to miss quite a few.

System

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Instead of waffling, just for once how about answering the question:
Do you think the Irish will carry on enjoying sending the EU an ever-increasing wedge?

I'm not interested in your clumsy rhetorical questions.

Your premise is the EU is desperate to find money now the UK is leaving. Then, off on a mission to prove something else, you show that 'leprechaun economics' is delivering a quarter of the UK's net contributions. Just like that from little old Ireland.

I don't care how the EU deal with it or their members 'enjoyment' levels. Each sovereign nation will argue they should pay less and receive more. The minutiae of the debate will be posted here as evidence of the imminent end of the EU. C'est la vie.

Thrugelmir

cogito wrote: »

harmonisation of corporation tax rates will hurt them the most of any country

I was in Eire the week of Junckers speech. This was covered internally in great depth. As is a cornerstone of financial policy. Without US companies basing themselves their. They would face problems in generating tax revenues. Not something that intend giving up either.

System

cogito wrote: »

I've thought for some time that if any other country were to leave the EU it would be the Irish. Their biggest trading partners are the UK and the USA, the EU are likely to impose a hard border with the UK, their budget contributions are increasing massively, harmonisation of corporation tax rates will hurt them the most of any country and they haven't forgotten the treatment they received from the EU at the time of the GFC.

Right now it's the UK that are leaving and we know..

- the UK is keen to talk trade but agreed not to on the first day of negotiations. Not only that but whether sufficient progress has been made regarding conditional items is to be decided by the Council of Europe.

- you are one of the people that suggested it was very important the government didn't tell us what they wanted out of brexit because that would 'show our hand'. Yet here we are with the government not far off grovelling so trade talks can start.

You still can't bring yourself to concede this brings into question the competence of the government's tactics. Meanwhile it's the EU 's fault for not negotiating when, in fact, they seem to be following your advice.

But yes Ireland might leave next. Twiddling and Rome spring to mind.

Thrugelmir

ilovehouses wrote: »

Yet here we are with the government not far off grovelling so trade talks can start.

Trade is a two way relationship. The importance of the UK as a market cannot be underestimated.

Herzlos

ilovehouses wrote: »

I'm not interested in your clumsy rhetorical questions.

Your premise is the EU is desperate to find money now the UK is leaving. Then, off on a mission to prove something else, you show that 'leprechaun economics' is delivering a quarter of the UK's net contributions. Just like that from little old Ireland.

I don't care how the EU deal with it or their members 'enjoyment' levels. Each sovereign nation will argue they should pay less and receive more. The minutiae of the debate will be posted here as evidence of the imminent end of the EU. C'est la vie.

Plus to put it in perspective, the UK provides about 8% of the EU's budget. Pulling that out from under them is going to cause them to do some major cost cutting / income improving activity but it's not going to cause them to fold.

Potentially, of the £14.5bn we're giving them now, we could be paying a pretty large chunk of that as part of the market access deal.

Again, if we're willing to take a big hit to leave the EU, the EU is presumably willing to take a hit to maintain the EU.

Do we have any actual aces up our sleeves here?

Herzlos

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Trade is a two way relationship. The importance of the UK as a market cannot be underestimated.

Neither can the importance of the EU as a market.

System

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Trade is a two way relationship. The importance of the UK as a market cannot be underestimated.

Quite but I wasn't saying otherwise.

The UK walked into a car showroom a couple of months ago and said they weren't that interested in buying a car right now. They've just turned up again and are begging the salesman to sell them a car. It's not in the salesman's interest to turn them away but who do you think has the advantage in that negotiation?

System

Herzlos wrote: »

Plus to put it in perspective, the UK provides about 8% of the EU's budget. Pulling that out from under them is going to cause them to do some major cost cutting / income improving activity but it's not going to cause them to fold.

Potentially, of the £14.5bn we're giving them now, we could be paying a pretty large chunk of that as part of the market access deal.

Again, if we're willing to take a big hit to leave the EU, the EU is presumably willing to take a hit to maintain the EU.

Do we have any actual aces up our sleeves here?

Plus we all know the UK will pay a 'divorce' bill of between £20bn and £80bn which should keep the EU in the manner to which they've become accustomed for the next 2 - 10 years.

Herzlos

Didn't May offer £20bn for the 2 year transition? I could see us paying £10bn/year for access in future, so the EU would only be £4bn or ~3% down. I'm sure they can weather that with minimal fuss