Brexit, the economy and house prices (Part 3)

gfplux

lisyloo wrote: »

Why will it be any different to travelling elsewhere e.g. Us where immigration checks are tight. That doesn't stop people going on holiday to the us.
Perhaps I'll avoid March and April 2019 until the teething problems are resolved but why should it be any worse than going on holiday enywhere else that has immigration checks?

If countries want tourist income then they won't discincentivise people from visiting.

Yes avoiding March and April 2019 or in fact all of 2019 sounds a good plan. If there are no problems we will all hear about it and if there are then a few months to sort it out should work.

gfplux

posh*spice wrote: »

I don't hate all migration. In fact , I'm married to someone who's mixed race. My son is dating some who's mixed race. I'm not a racist. I don't care about the colour of people's skin or where they were born.

What I hate is that my kids are never going to be able to leave home. My family and friends have kids that can't leave home. The reality of three generations in a house is my realirty. My kids don't earn much despite dripping in educational qualifications because there is too much competition in the labourmarket - which is great for employers.

Their lives are crap. I had a better life.

I don't know why you can't see what is happening ?

My kids will have a better life when we leave the EU. So will everyone elses.

Sorry to hear about all your family problems.
Sadly leaving the EU will mean that your highly educated children will not be able to move and work in an EU27 country without difficulty.
You have helped to close the door on their prospects.

gfplux

From Politico London playbook.
THE ITALIAN JOB: Theresa May is to make her much-anticipated Brexit speech in Florence next Friday, Downing Street announced last night. The prime minister will use the September 22 address in one of the world’s most beautiful cities to try to break the deadlocked negotiations, which resume in Brussels the following week. Bloomberg Political Editor Rob Hutton has a good write-up.

So now we know when and where but what will be fascinating.

Here is more....

How big a deal is this? May is a politician who has always made her biggest plays through set-piece speeches, rather than in interviews or off-the-cuff remarks. From the “Nasty Party” sermon to Tory conference in 2002 to the extraordinary Police Federation showdown in 2014, from her visionary words on the steps of Downing Street last summer to the Lancaster House Brexit speech in January, May’s career can be charted through a series of impressive but carefully-scripted orations. Her Florence speech is likely to be a highly significant moment.

Why now? The speech will come almost six months to the day after May triggered Article 50. Little progress has been made, with the next round of Brexit talks now delayed a week to make space for this latest intervention. The big EU Council summit on October 22 — when the EU27 leaders will discuss whether “sufficient progress” has been made to start trade talks — is only five weeks away. A breakthrough is needed.

And why Italy? May wants to speak to Europe, and to be seen to be doing so. No. 10 says it wanted a location in Europe’s “historical heart,” and painted Florence as a city “known for its historical trading power” — riffing on May’s theme of post-Brexit Britain as a global trading nation. A very different speech to a domestic audience will come 12 days later when May addresses the Tory Party conference in Birmingham.

ukcarper

posh*spice wrote: »

And yes Hamish a third of the population are Boomers and will die soon. It's terrible that I see that as a positive event because then my kids can afford a house. But hey hoe I didn't invite millions into our country.

I also see the flat lining of lifeexpecatancy as a positive.

I think you could be waiting a long time, the largest age groups are 50 to 54 (late boomers) and 45 to 49 (early genX) other boomer age groups are similar in size to younger age groups.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

I've quoted you two sets of stats from the ONS.

Not a single credible source disagrees with them.

Why are you so desperate to deny the evidence?

Why are you?
This was widely covered earlier in the year as I suspect you know only too well, but here are just three examples from many:
https://www.ft.com/content/78146114-15f5-11e7-80f4-13e067d5072c

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-39429039

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/pensioners-uk-life-expectancy-falling-institute-and-faculty-of-actuaries-a7661571.html

Theophile

posh*spice wrote: »

I don't hate all migration. In fact , I'm married to someone who's mixed race. My son is dating some who's mixed race.

I have a friend who is black.

posh*spice wrote: »

What I hate is that my kids are never going to be able to leave home. My family and friends have kids that can't leave home. The reality of three generations in a house is my realirty. My kids don't earn much despite dripping in educational qualifications because there is too much competition in the labourmarket - which is great for employers.

Their lives are crap. I had a better life.

I'm truly sorry their lives are crap, but maybe the qualifications your kids are dripping with are just not the right ones to be successful in the current labour market? It's never too late to re-skill.

posh*spice wrote: »

I don't know why you can't see what is happening ?

My kids will have a better life when we leave the EU.

No, they won't.
I really feel for you. It's going to be a rude awakening when it eventually (if ever) dawns on you how much you will have hurt your kids' prospects by voting us out of the most prosperous single market on earth. Good luck. You're going to need it.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

ilovehouses wrote: »

Why are they needed? Let's see your working - I suspect parroting.

More delusions?
Or just more ignoring the facts?
It's easy enough to work out & I suspect you just don't like the statistics.


2016/7 net immigration: 246,000
2016 net population rise from births: 170,000*

2015/6 net immigration: 332,000
2015 net population rise from births: 174,000*

2014/5 net immigration: 313,000
2014 net population rise from births: 200,000*
_____________________________________________________


Therefore the total population increase over three years = 1,435,000

______________________________________________________

2015 ONS population of Newcastle: 293,000

Over the past three years then, almost five cities the size of Newcastle would be needed to house the increase in population.




* Net population rise figures are for England & Wales only.
You want Scotland and/or Northern Ireland?
Feel free to look for yourself.

https://www.migrationwatchuk.org/statistics-net-migration-statistics

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/datasets/vitalstatisticspopulationandhealthreferencetables

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/livebirths/bulletins/birthsummarytablesenglandandwales/2016

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newcastle_upon_Tyne


BTW, if I am Captain Mainwaring then you must be Private Pike I presume?

Carl31

So, single state of Europe then

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/junker-reveals-his-vision-for-a-united-states-of-europe-k9q9p9l3w

Single currency, single EU army, single point of leadership, more poor countries that will struggle with the Euro - and we will regret leaving that (apparently)

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Theophile wrote: »

I really feel for you. It's going to be a rude awakening when it eventually (if ever) dawns on you how much you will have hurt your kids' prospects by voting us out of the most prosperous single market on earth. Good luck. You're going to need it.

There's no need to feel sorry.
Kid's prospects are at last brighter than they have been for many years.
For example, your beloved "most prosperous single market on earth" is a declining part of global trade; the UK wants to expand and improve trade, not contract like the EU.

"Europe is a declining part of world trade," he said.
"It's now down to 12% and in about five years' time it will be 9% of world trade. The fastest growing sector is, of course, in the far east, China and the far eastern countries where we're growing by about 80% or 90% a year. That's where the opportunities are - not Europe."

http://news.sky.com/story/uk-should-make-a-clean-break-from-eu-says-james-dyson-11034559

Theophile

Carl31 wrote: »

So, single state of Europe then

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/junker-reveals-his-vision-for-a-united-states-of-europe-k9q9p9l3w

Single currency, single EU army, single point of leadership, more poor countries that will struggle with the Euro - and we will regret leaving that (apparently)

Sigh.
It's just his vision, a blueprint. He'll be out of office in 2019 anyway.
And as per your article, there's already push-back.

Leaders of the Netherlands and Denmark warned that Mr Juncker was overreaching

And yes, we will regret leaving that.