Brexit, the economy and house prices (Part 3)

Conrad

setmefree2 wrote: »

London does feel quieter at the moment.


- of course people might still be on holiday...

Lots of development is going on out here where I am in the shires, big noticeable increases in congestion and so on and still I saw even this morning on the way in 2 new large housing developments being started.


I do find it depressing tbh, more and more Humanity and it's effects.


I like Humans of course, but there's a limit.


Talking to East European clients and a tenant of mine many have being saying they would like to go back to (for example) Estonia where a new 5 bed detatched on the beach 'near' Tallinn can be had for £125k. Makes sense really if you've amassed a bit of dosh and the cost of living is lower.

Conrad

POLES - btw - I've met dozens through martial arts and have to say every one of them was what one would deem a good egg. Lots of Polish clients too, same experience. On average I find them more classy than Brits and women are gorg! (E European in generally seem, ermm, fit as heck, tight a££es etc)

movilogo

There was a referendum on whether people wants to stay in EU or leave EU.

People voted that.

Some say it didn't ask the question whether it means leaving single market or not.
We can have a referendum on that

Then some will say people didn't vote whether freedom of movement should stop or not.
We can have a referendum on that.

We could have a referendum on whether we should re-join EU.
Then one more for on what terms.
Then another on what those terms exactly means.

You see, how it will end up in having nevrendum?

BTW, should we have a referendum on on whether we should have another referendum?

ess0two

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Higher young turnout and a brexit backlash cost the Tories their majority - so it looks like some lessons have been learned.

Free university fees seen a higher turn out, nothing else.

Herzlos

Conrad wrote: »

Just came across this leaked EU report again, surprised it doesn't get mentioned more;

The European commission’s Brexit negotiators must strike a “workable” deal with Theresa May’s government to protect the City of London or the economies of the remaining member states will be damaged, a leaked EU report warns.

The paper warns that UK-based financial services account for 40% of Europe’s assets under management and 60% of its capital markets business. “And UK-based banks provide more than £1.1tn of loans to the other EU member states,”


https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/feb/01/eu-brexit-deal-city-leaked-report-european-parliament-article-50

Next up; grass is still green. Is this the ace up the sleeve you were hoping for, or does it still come under the "bad deal is bad for everyone" approach you think remainers deny?

Conrad

Herzlos wrote: »

Low turnout is nonetheless responsible for brexit and trump. Maybe we've learned our lesson

'Nearly 139 million Americans voted this year, according to the United States Elections Project. This sets a new overall record, surpassing the all-time high of 132 million Americans who voted in the 2008 contest between Barack Obama and John McCain'.


http://uk.businessinsider.com/trump-voter-turnout-records-history-obama-clinton-2016-11

GreatApe

andrewf75 wrote: »

https://data.oecd.org/earnwage/average-wages.htm
We are roughly in the middle of the countries shown here, but many of those with lower average wages than us are not developed economies

And bear in mind the high cost of housing this is not the full picture. Also bear in mind the average wage is skewed higher by London and the south east. For most of the country the average wage is much lower. While that will be the case everywhere I expect the skewing effect is going to be more in the UK than in most countries.

That won't satisfy the above poster as he knows better than everyone, but at least it provides some back up for my argument

A free floating currency means its hard to compare two different currency countries together.

As I've already noted if you go look on a currency chart any time the pound is stronger than 1.15 euro the UK is a higher value added (wages) country and when its lower it is lower value added relative to France. If you look at a 10 year graph it shows the UK is higher than France most the time and often quite a lot higher.

Also a lot of the higher up countries in your link have massive natural resource wealth (per capita) compared to the UK. Eg Norway with it's oil or Iceland with huge hydro per capita so you should account for that.

Even countries like France benefit a lot from the much larger land mass, in Frances case to the tune of 30 billion euro additioal vs the UK. The EU system makes it even worse by subsidising farming which means the UK hands out £10 billion net while France gets a lot more back than we do

Also the UK is a big foreign aid donator while the French give half as much. Plus we actually spend 2% on our military while the germans and French freeload somewhat off us in that respect. Dispite all this we are richer than the French nost the time and not far behind the Germans.

Loanranger

Herzlos wrote: »

And unexpected roadblocks tend not to announce themselves weeks in advance. What's your point?

My point is that you raised a contrived argument which I have comprehensively dismissed as nonsense.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

GreatApe wrote: »

No need to go off on a tangent. The answer is simple the UK is not a low income developed country the UK is a high income country more so than France for most the time over the last decade (and as economic points out not only are we higher income most the time but we get to keep more of that income ourselves due to lower taxes)

I think you misunderstood; no "off on a tangent" there.
Simply put, despite attempts at boosting public spending over a long period by flaunting EU deficit rules French GDP remains lower than that of the UK.

As for French wages, the actions I posted are not going to ease the desire for strikes in France are they?
Unless you seriously believe that the employees of these formerly state-owned businesses will be better off (if they're still in a job, that is) under private ownership?

France's major hardline union, CGT, blasted the reform as a "declaration of war" that spelled "the end of the work contract". It called for massive street action on September 12 from "workers, pensioners and the young", along with the smaller CFE-CGC union. Other protests could follow.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/08/31/emmanuel-macrons-government-unveils-crunch-labour-reform-top/

See, no "off on a tangent" there, just agreement together with an observation that this has been despite France's attempts to improve.

LHW99

Low turnout is nonetheless responsible for brexit

National turnout was 72.2%
https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/find-information-by-subject/elections-and-referendums/past-elections-and-referendums/eu-referendum/electorate-and-count-information
That's higher than its been in general elections since about 1997
http://www.ukpolitical.info/Turnout45.htm