Brexit, the economy and house prices (Part 3)

andrewf75

Conrad wrote: »

If what you say is an objective truth, once again we need to ask when so many Europeans CHOOSE this nation over the others that are supposedly more equal and better in terms of affordability and wage growth.

I work with stats for a living so I always exercise great caution!

But the answer to this needs no stats. They come because of our more dynamic economy, where it is far easier to get a job even with no language or contacts than elsewhere. I know unskilled people who have got a job within days of arriving. You couldn't do that in Germany or France.

I think this is clearly linked to the lower wages and living standards. Thats the price we pay for being a "business friendly" economy. You can't have everything.

gfplux

Conrad wrote: »

Staff shortages are pushing up pay, recruiters say

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-40853467

Great news if you are looking for a job, particularly in the South East. Not so good for employers particularly exporters looking to increase production.
Very interesting how the Brexit Crisis is a curates egg.

gfplux

Conrad wrote: »

ICELAND FOREIGN MINISTER TODAY;

'Everyone wants a free trade deal with Britain'.

https://order-order.com/2017/09/05/iceland-everyone-wants-free-trade-deal-britain/

That's good news. Lots of Country's want to sell Britain stuff.
That's not a debating point, just fact.
You could debate if it is an advantage in selling more than we import to a new trading partner partner is a good or bad thing but then we would be both in agreement wouldn't we? As you say "importing tat funded by credit"

GreatApe

andrewf75 wrote: »

You're comparing to the developing world, obviously we're high wage compared to them.
On a minimum wage or average wage we fare very poorly compared to other comparable countries especially if you take into account the low affordability of housing.
Wage growth since the financial crisis has been lower in the UK than any other European country bar Greece.
We are a very productive country, but also very unequal.
From a quick google:
https://www.ft.com/content/83e7e87e-fe64-11e6-96f8-3700c5664d30

We are not a low income country at all.

The UK is a £1.9 trillion GDP economy
France is 2.18 trillion Euro economy

That means when the pound is above 1.147 euro the UK is a more productive and more wealthy country.

Take a look at a 10 year graph of pounds to euros as you can see the vast majority of the time the pound is over 1.147 euro ergo the UK is a higher value added economy often times much higher than France

All this is down to once again very poor journalism. You don't have many mathematics or scientists becoming journalists.

Moby

Excellent summary on the state of play from a man who knows his onions:- http://monevator.com/ Yes, we are going to pay a multi-billion bill before leaving the EU No, there is no extra money for the NHS Yes, subsequent post-vote reporting has confirmed that Brexit is a logistical nightmare, from Ireland to atoms No, Frankfurt isn’t too terrible to play home to American bankers Yes, the EU is united in dealing with our pathetic tantrum mighty negotiators No, the Eurozone hasn’t collapsed. Rather, the economic cycle has continued to turn. (The EU is now growing faster than the UK.) Yes, the EU has signed trade deals with Canada and Japan since the Referendum No, the UK won’t get a better deal by being a smaller country with less bargaining power Yes, clever EU citizens are already being tempted to leave the UK No, the French didn’t vote in the fascists. (Our own rash decision – and the other one over the pond – probably gave them pause). Yes, we are probably going to keep obeying EU regulations, including via the European Court of Justice, post-Brexit No, scaring away skilled EU citizens hasn’t cut net immigration to the ‘tens of thousands’ yet (and Brexit won’t either, because much of net migration is from the non-EU and we never did anything about them before the vote) Yes, it’s true our economy didn’t slump in the wake of the Referendum result. (I was wrong footed there, but my bigger fear is for the long-term hit anyway) No, there has been no great export boom due to the cheap pound Yes, future generations of UK citizens will be unable to live and work anywhere in Europe like their parents and grandparents could by right No, there’s no evidence this curtailment will do anything for the disaffected and angry people in slow-growth provincial towns, except reduce the tax receipts that pay for aid and benefits. I could go on, but it’s too depressing. How often do rational people – as opposed to mobs on the streets – get together to decide to do something against their own interests? To negotiate a worse economic outcome? To cede power? Perhaps in suicidal religious cults. Not much else springs to mind. OUCH!

GreatApe

andrewf75 wrote: »

I work with stats for a living so I always exercise great caution!

But the answer to this needs no stats. They come because of our more dynamic economy, where it is far easier to get a job even with no language or contacts than elsewhere. I know unskilled people who have got a job within days of arriving. You couldn't do that in Germany or France.

I think this is clearly linked to the lower wages and living standards. Thats the price we pay for being a "business friendly" economy. You can't have everything.

If we have lower wages and living standards why is our GDP higher than Frances most of the time?

economic

GreatApe wrote: »

If we have lower wages and living standards why is our GDP higher than Frances most of the time?

and france has the highest taxation as well.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

GreatApe wrote: »

If we have lower wages and living standards why is our GDP higher than Frances most of the time?

Well France do kinda cheat and constantly exceed the EU's own deficit limit of 3%, having done so for the past decade and struggling yet again this year.
Now they're selling off French assets.
To lower this deficit?
No, to "go to a new 10 billion-euro (£9.14 billion) fund to finance innovative projects, one of President Emmanuel Macron’s election pledges."
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-france-privatisations-engie/france-starts-asset-sales-drive-with-engie-placement-idUKKCN1BG37P?il=0

Both France and Germany have for long been guilty of breaking EU guidelines on deficit without reprimand; see this from 2014 and begin to understand why so many globally see the EU as unfair and protectionist:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/11207721/Why-do-France-and-Germany-keep-breaking-EU-rules.html

ukcarper

Herzlos wrote: »

It's definitely apathy lowering the "won't bother" threshold. If you feel your vote means nothing and none if the options represent you (GE at least) then it's very easy to just say "nah I'm not taking time off work for that" or "nah I'm not going out in that".

It's a shame, but I don't think there's any solution to disenfrisement, beyond a major political overhaul.

The votes did count in Referendum and as you say it will effect them more than older voters so there is no excuse.

Arklight

Conrad wrote: »

You see this is where you need to exercise great caution when it comes to supposed expert stats.


If what you say is an objective truth, once again we need to ask when so many Europeans CHOOSE this nation over the others that are supposedly more equal and better in terms of affordability and wage growth.


It's no good saying its because we speak English, money and happiness will trump that.


I find most such stats and reports woefully naive and just do not reflect the experienced reality of life in the UK




Where else would you see this;>>>


I just completed on a flat in a brand new very highly sought after development (each phase massively over-subscribed, you have to queue for 2/3 nights & days to stand a chance).


As the new owner I've been back and forth showing tenants etc etc.


Of the first phase, 75% of it is affordable HA provision.


I'm talking amazing properties here in a gated pukka development.


So what do I find......... my neighbours occupying the HA properties are mainly all relative newcomers to the UK.


They cannot belive their good fortune. 2 of those I've spoken to don't work - one says he has a bad knee, mmm, lets not even go there, after all 'they come here to work, not claim benefits'.

I just cant imagine this happening in France nor Italy, people being handed £400k apartments in a leafy shire as if by magic.


It's an amazing nation and this stuff just never comes out in the news.

How you can state that this isn't mentioned in the news boggles my mind because utter !!!! like this is pretty much all that's printed in the right wing media.


These are the actual - not pulled from made up UKIP propaganda - facts re. migrants benefits.


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-25134521

Can EU migrants easily claim benefits when they arrive in another EU country?

No - there are conditions, depending on an individual's circumstances.
They can stay for three months, but to stay longer after that they have to be: in work; or actively seeking work with a genuine chance of being hired; or be able to show they have enough money not to be a burden on public services. Apart from that, evidence of benefit abuse or fraud is grounds to exclude or expel a person.

From policy that has been in place since 2014:


http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/11/what-are-eu-migrants-entitled-terms-benefits-and-housing-and-when

How many of them are housed by the state?




There are similar levels of UK nationals and foreign-born individuals living in social housing: 17 per cent and 18 per cent, respectively. It is not the case that immigrants receive preferential treatment on council housing lists.


The immigrant population is almost three times as likely to be in the private rental sector than their UK-born neighbours: 38 per cent compared to 14 per cent.


From April this year, new EEA migrant jobseekers have no longer been allowed housing benefit.


The housing minister Brandon Lewis commented:


Foreign nationals coming to the UK should be under no illusion that they will get free housing if they fall on hard times. They will find no stepping stones to a social home, because we’ve changed the rules so local people have priority.