Brexit, the economy and house prices (Part 3)

Herzlos

Loanranger wrote: »

Yes, because general elections are, of course, called without any notice whatsoever and thus no-one is forewarned nor prepared and there are no party election broadcasts to hint at the forthcoming event.

And unexpected roadblocks tend not to announce themselves weeks in advance. What's your point?

Herzlos

fatbeetle wrote: »

They cannot live without our money to pee away.

They'll survive fine. We'll survive without all that cheap trade, too.

kabayiri

Herzlos wrote: »

Exactly. Thus "record low unemployment" is nonsense, especially when zero hours contracts are so common. It's even no use as a comparison because different countries use different metrics.

When labour becomes a pure commodity, you don't really worry about utilization rates.

I mentioned before about the Norfolk firm which might need 50 migrant workers one day; and just 5 workers the next.

They don't sit there worrying about what the other 45 will be doing that day they are not needed.

Herzlos

ukcarper wrote: »

I think it's apathy the older voters were probably the same when they were younger.

The turn out increased with age the 18-24 year olds turning out in the lowest numbers,

It's definitely apathy lowering the "won't bother" threshold. If you feel your vote means nothing and none if the options represent you (GE at least) then it's very easy to just say "nah I'm not taking time off work for that" or "nah I'm not going out in that".

It's a shame, but I don't think there's any solution to disenfrisement, beyond a major political overhaul.

Filo25

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Unemployment isn't as low it may seem. Extra hours offered by employers therefore are easily absorbed. In addition many of the jobs created more recently are low paid (low skill), part time, low quality etc. Then there's the growth of self employment. Think of the gig economy. Labour is turned on or off at the flick of a switch. Uber, Just Eat, Deliveroo etc.

I would tend to agree, since the GFC in particular there appears to be a fair bit of underemployment around, which no doubt helps to explain why the productivity numbers have been so generally awful over that time period.

GreatApe

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Unemployment isn't as low it may seem. Extra hours offered by employers therefore are easily absorbed. In addition many of the jobs created more recently are low paid (low skill), part time, low quality etc. Then there's the growth of self employment. Think of the gig economy. Labour is turned on or off at the flick of a switch. Uber, Just Eat, Deliveroo etc.

Uber didn't create many more cabbies they already existed. Uber just closed down a lot of local cab offices and took that existing market share

The UK is a High wage economy
Life is great in the UK for functional families.
People of course always want more and the unfortunate are more vocal than the fortunate

I can't think of any other country I'd like to live in more than the UK, NIR can I think of any other time period I would prefer than today

GreatApe

Filo25 wrote: »

I would tend to agree, since the GFC in particular there appears to be a fair bit of underemployment around, which no doubt helps to explain why the productivity numbers have been so generally awful over that time period.

Productivity is as high as its ever been

That is despite the natural challenges like oil gas and coal extraction falling off a cliff due to geological and depletion reasons. And the aging population

Really this is all the fault of journalists with no understanding of statistics. Productivity growth has been low but productivity is very high. Also even the producotiivt growth is talked about comparing today in the middle of the economic cycle to mid 2007 at the night of a bubble its cheery picking.

andrewf75

GreatApe wrote: »

The UK is a High wage economy
Life is great in the UK for functional families.

Seriously!?

I think this just shows how divided the country is and how out of touch with reality some people are.
The UK is a high wage economy for *some* that is true and the wealthy have probably never been more so that is true, but the average person in the UK is less well off than in most other comparable countries. A nurse or electrician or teacher would be far better off in most other Western European country, Australia, NZ, Canada.

GreatApe

economic wrote: »

not neccesarily. changing jobs does not at all always mean wages rise. low unemployment does not mean wage increases either. you may just have more people employed at the average wage level or more people employed at high wage level and low wage level which offsets eachother to create an average no wage rise.

Its really simple

Fundamental wealth is about productivity and productivity doesn't change a huge amount in any given year. Of course it can add up over many years and decades just like a 3% compound over 30 years is much better than a 2.5% compound over 30 years

Anyone expecting higher wages quickly post brexit due to lower migrant numbers is simply wrong.
Its questionable even if in the long term it would lead to higher wages. There are developed countries where the population has been static or falling and the results were not higher wages or better economic growth.

Filo25

GreatApe wrote: »

Productivity is as high as its ever been

That is despite the natural challenges like oil gas and coal extraction falling off a cliff due to geological and depletion reasons. And the aging population

Really this is all the fault of journalists with no understanding of statistics. Productivity growth has been low but productivity is very high. Also even the producotiivt growth is talked about comparing today in the middle of the economic cycle to mid 2007 at the night of a bubble its cheery picking.

Its not really much of an achievement though to say productivity is as high as its ever been, you would expect it generally to grow every year, its not exactly an achievement that its currently sitting around 2007 levels!

Our overall productivity level still lags many other major economies (although that is also far from a new problem)