Brexit, The Economy and House Prices (Part 2)

kabayiri

Why do intelligent panelists on QT treat Brexit as some kind of pic 'n mix?

It is not.

The EU team are *only* interested in negotiating the exit bill and citizen rights (+ Irish border) for now.

At some point they will get around to what will replace our existing membership.

We are leaving. It's the quality of the replacement which they will argue long and hard over.

Ukraine is an example of where a core principle can be dropped. The value judgement comes in the price to be paid.

You know what the value judgements of the Tories are in the main. They prioritize economic reasons over social pretty much.

kabayiri

mayonnaise wrote: »

You might have noticed the rhetoric on both sides of the house changing to 'jobs first Brexit' and 'economy first Brexit'.
Never underestimate our political classes' ability to turn this into one big convoluted mess.

So?

Never offer the public a choice between 2 options if you can't deliver on either option.

Cameron promised a simple IN/OUT question, and we are entitled to treat it as such. It's up to the politicians to do the rest.

If they really mess up, I can see political unrest on a scale we have not seen for a long long time.

Fella

mayonnaise wrote: »

You might have noticed the rhetoric on both sides of the house changing to 'jobs first Brexit' and 'economy first Brexit'.
Never underestimate our political classes' ability to turn this into one big convoluted mess.

As you say it's all rhetoric though isn't it. "jobs first" & "economy first" are both meaningless really, no politician is going to suggest they're aiming to damage jobs or the economy.

I would bet it will be a mess but I think where we differ is I think the UK will ultimately be better out than in (partly because I think the EU will implode in various ways).

CKhalvashi

Someone has finally found it, and there is loads of magic money left for the NHS, Police, Fire and remaining in the Single Market it seems.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

CKhalvashi wrote: »

Someone has finally found it, and there is loads of magic money left for the NHS, Police, Fire and remaining in the Single Market it seems.

Proof of that please?

Or is that statement purely to detract attention from the ongoing mess that is the Labour party?

Labour is in chaos this morning after Jeremy Corbyn was forced to sack three shadow ministers when they joined dozens of Labour MPs rebelling against the party over Brexit.
In a serious blow to Mr Corbyn’s authority, 49 Labour MPs defied the party whip last night to back a Queen’s Speech amendment tabled by their backbench colleague Chuka Umunna.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/30/labour-chaos-deputy-leader-tom-watson-hits-brexit-rebels-tried/

Filo25

Conrad wrote: »

But again Remainers have everything all mixed up. A hard Brexit does not mean we won't have a mutually beneficial relationship with Europe, it means being a grown up nation like Canada but with a better trade deal off the back of the fact core EU nations do massively more trade with the U.K.

If only Remainers could get behind Brexit life for all of us would be more positive. The Economist woman on QT was a classic case of an insider unable to see wood for trees, wedded to old realities.

There still seems to be this belief, that all we need is a positive can-do attitude and some wonderful deal will fall into our laps which will give us all the benefits of the EU with none of the costs, I wish I shared your optimism that it will be achieved.

Anyway leave the Remainers out of it, Team Brexit won the vote now the 3 Brexit supporters in charge of the key departments for our external relations and a Government intent on pushing Brexit through need to get on with delivering what they promised.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

UK/USA trade talks will start 24th July:

EU rules prohibit member states from making separate trade deals with countries outside the bloc.
But the Secretary of State for International Trade has repeatedly insisted there is nothing to stop the British Government “scoping out” how a future relationship with America might look.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-trade-deal-liam-fox-uk-us-24-july-a7815751.html


I have said repeatedly before that the UK can talk to who it wants and when it wants. There is absolutely nothing to prevent the UK from having trade deals ready to sign immediately we become separated from the EU.

Filo25

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

UK/USA trade talks will start 24th July:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-trade-deal-liam-fox-uk-us-24-july-a7815751.html


I have said repeatedly before that the UK can talk to who it wants and when it wants. There is absolutely nothing to prevent the UK from having trade deals ready to sign immediately we become separated from the EU.

I think within reason that talks can quietly be begun, but equally doubt we will agree a favourable trade deal with the US in under 2 years, especially with the US seemingly more hostile to free trade than they have been for quite a while.

I'm sure a deal could be done in that time period, but I doubt it would be a popular one.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Filo25 wrote: »

I think within reason that talks can quietly be begun, but equally doubt we will agree a favourable trade deal with the US in under 2 years, especially with the US seemingly more hostile to free trade than they have been for quite a while.

I'm sure a deal could be done in that time period, but I doubt it would be a popular one.

And therein lies the difference between points of view, no more than the "glass half empty" vs "glass half full" debate with neither side able to give a definitive response.

There are quite a number of arguments which would point to a UK/USA deal being possible quickly and to mutual benefit, not least of which is the anti-EU vs anti-USA sentiment rearing its head. With global warming, steel and NATO being just a few of the bones of contention there is every chance that an opportunity could arise and agreement be reached sooner than some currently think.

cogito

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

And therein lies the difference between points of view, no more than the "glass half empty" vs "glass half full" debate with neither side able to give a definitive response.

There are quite a number of arguments which would point to a UK/USA deal being possible quickly and to mutual benefit, not least of which is the anti-EU vs anti-USA sentiment rearing its head. With global warming, steel and NATO being just a few of the bones of contention there is every chance that an opportunity could arise and agreement be reached sooner than some currently think.

I'm not even sure that we need a trade deal with the US given the massive amounts of trade flowing in both directions without one. That won't change after Brexit. If we did negotiate one though, it would be a big poke in the eye for the EU.