Brexit, The Economy and House Prices (Part 2)

Rusty_Shackleton

Conrad wrote: »

Norway & Switzerland have more referndums than us. To follow your logic they should be basket cases.

Why do you ignore what the experts said about German reunification? The mandarins and Civil Servants said at the very least it would take ten years and be a major disrupt or to prosperity. Totally wrong, it was pulled off inside a year and Germany has flowered. Had it been down to your camp, change would have been shunned.

The experts said the dissolution of Czecheslovakia would cause untold misery. Again all wrong, the can do people made it happen inside 14 months and it was a great sucess in spite of dividing up assets, Banks, currency, Govt the lot.

Why don't you read the book Futurebabble? It is a study of big ticket predictions by Economists and such like and found they are almost always wrong.


You are not comprehending how people adapt and make change for the positive when it comes to the crunch. Your narrow band of one type of expert are typically extrapolating for a current scene, they simply lack the 360 vision and cannot compute how people and business will definitely adapt and thrive.

Dont confuse real experts such as engineers with moribund timid Civil Servants that hate change.

Countries such as Switzerland have always had a more direct, involved system. People are more engaged with politics there. Right or wrong, the majority of Brits dont care much about politics, even less about how their own government and the EU function.

Im not just talking about economists. What about nuclear physicists and doctors that work with things like MRIs warning about the dangers of leaving Euratom? Should they be dismissed because theyre EU shills as well?!

The referedum question gave a blunt outcome to a myriad of complex interconnected subjects. Even as someone with a longstanding interest in the EU, i keep learning about thing Ive never heard of and never thought existed... Yet I was asked to vote on it by proxy. Its mad.

Im not failing to comprehend how people adapt, but this doing so on such a scale is going to be vastly expensive, there will be severe disruption, and because its all a rush job you can put money on the replacement regulators and policies will be substandard ans worse than what we currently have. We basically voted to undo progress. Dont even get me started on the abuses that will come out in the tampering under the repeal bill, things will come out that make third world countries look like beacons of civility if the torys get their way....but all of this is worth it to satisfy the nationalistic BS of people who, the vast majority, will be dead within a couple of decades. Here we are, down the rabbit hole.

CKhalvashi

Conrad wrote: »

What is your opinion of the IMF and World Bank saying Sterling was up to 20% overvalued in the months prior to the referndum and how this was harming UK competitivness?

A reply please, not off at a tangent about experts.

If I may.

I'd got the rate right for my circumstances before the referendum, however others hadn't.

Any business should be able (within a degree) to move its pricing around to accommodate whatever exchange rate is set.

A 20% shift is considerable and easily could make a business model unviable if that business working on a long term contract and pricing in £ with a number of Euro expenses. There have been several casualties as a result of this.

Very few businesses have a gross margin of 20% other than one man service bands. Over a 3-4 year period it's possible to deal with that sort of shift (depending on average contract length) whereas over a year it's considerably more difficult if not impossible.

Conrad

Rusty_Shackleton wrote: »

People have been saying sterling is overvalued for years. IMF actually made noise with the claim in 2015, and the FT reported it in 2014.
https://amp.ft.com/content/ec6bef86-1653-11e4-8210-00144feabdc0

No doubt you'll fine the same arguments every year going back a rather long time if you look. One of the major reasons for the claim is our chronic balance of payments problem. Slight problem though, we've had a devaluation, but its not really having the desired effect boosting exports (not nearly as much as it 'should'... Assuming you werent aware of how much of industrial input is imported), and with consumers too eager to take on credit instead of adjust their consumption downwards or favour domestic alternatives (where they exist) means that the devaluation is just making us poorer and not doing anything much about the balance of payments.

It takes time for J Curve benefits to feed through but almost month on month the indicators are pointing towards these benefits slowly comming through such as the MARKIT indicator.

The alternative is to carry on as we were with the unsustainable trade defecit, importing Chinese knickers and filling the production gap with consumer borrowing.

Good dignified jobs are slowly being created as a result, far better than an endless demand for couriers on ZHCs to ferry knickers up n down the M1

Conrad

CKhalvashi wrote: »

If I may.

I'd got the rate right for my circumstances before the referendum, however others hadn't.

Any business should be able (within a degree) to move its pricing around to accommodate whatever exchange rate is set.

A 20% shift is considerable and easily could make a business model unviable if that business working on a long term contract and pricing in £ with a number of Euro expenses. There have been several casualties as a result of this.

Very few businesses have a gross margin of 20% other than one man service bands. Over a 3-4 year period it's possible to deal with that sort of shift (depending on average contract length) whereas over a year it's considerably more difficult if not impossible.

Overall effect is positive going forward. Always casualties, but tough luck, I have been a casualty of past change, hey ho.

Conrad

Rusty_Shackleton wrote: »

Countries such as Switzerland have always had a more direct, involved system. People are more engaged with politics there. Right or wrong, the majority of Brits dont care much about politics, even less about how their own government and the EU function.

Im not just talking about economists. What about nuclear physicists and doctors that work with things like MRIs warning about the dangers of leaving Euratom? Should they be dismissed because theyre EU shills as well?!

The referedum question gave a blunt outcome to a myriad of complex interconnected subjects. Even as someone with a longstanding interest in the EU, i keep learning about thing Ive never heard of and never thought existed... Yet I was asked to vote on it by proxy. Its mad.

Im not failing to comprehend how people adapt, but this doing so on such a scale is going to be vastly expensive, there will be severe disruption, and because its all a rush job you can put money on the replacement regulators and policies will be substandard ans worse than what we currently have. We basically voted to undo progress. Dont even get me started on the abuses that will come out in the tampering under the repeal bill, things will come out that make third world countries look like beacons of civility if the torys get their way....but all of this is worth it to satisfy the nationalistic BS of people who, the vast majority, will be dead within a couple of decades. Here we are, down the rabbit hole.

Your'e just wrong, adaptation will occur, disruption will be managed and minimal and above all the change to the trade deal will be minute in the grand scheme.

We always had global scientific collaboration just as do Japan, Australia and others today, nothing to worry about, we arent stupid, we carve our own destiny.

People often reject change, again read the history, the nay Sayers are almost always wrong

Conrad

Again you ignore the example of German reunification and Czecheslovakia. The nay Sayers shared the view you promulgate, but in the end all was well.

Rusty_Shackleton

Conrad wrote: »

It takes time for J Curve benefits to feed through but almost month on month the indicators are pointing towards these benefits slowly comming through such as the MARKIT indicator.

The alternative is to carry on as we were with the unsustainable trade defecit, importing Chinese knickers and filling the production gap with consumer borrowing.

Good dignified jobs are slowly being created as a result, far better than an endless demand for couriers on ZHCs to ferry knickers up n down the M1

No argument about good jobs being desirable, but Ive not seen evidence of them being created!

Isnt markit the CIPS PMI reports? Because those indexes have been steadily less better each month... As an index, over 50 is good theyve been gradually moving lower towards 50. That doesnt inspire confidence, that spells growing anxiety. Especially when you consider long term decisions taken pre referendum will come to their end more and more, so we could start to see a lot of investment being put off or even cancelled. The CIPS PMIs are definitely one to watch, and they could go ether way at this point... Theres nothing cheery in them of late though.

GreatApe

Rusty_Shackleton wrote: »

No argument about good jobs being desirable, but Ive not seen evidence of them being created!

About 1 million people retire each year and a million people get jobs each year
If the new jobs were not any good it would very rapidly show up in GDP.
The truth is GDP in nominal terms is as high as it has ever been, in real terms it is as high as it has ever been (rounded to the closes 1%).

This is a rich country with a lot of wealth and good paying jobs.

Of course there will still be people with !!!! lives but mostly its nowt to do with the economy or politics or anything of that nature its mostly to do with dysfunctional individuals and families causing themselves and their families chaos and pain

Rusty_Shackleton

Conrad wrote: »

Again you ignore the example of German reunification and Czecheslovakia. The nay Sayers shared the view you promulgate, but in the end all was well.

German reunification was borne out of necessity, brexit is a choice. Makes the world of difference. Reunification was also progress, brexit, whatever your opinion on it is dismantling something. Very, very different. Czechoslovakia breaking up, I dont know background etc. So cant comment.

Rusty_Shackleton

GreatApe wrote: »

About 1 million people retire each year and a million people get jobs each year
If the new jobs were not any good it would very rapidly show up in GDP.
The truth is GDP in nominal terms is as high as it has ever been, in real terms it is as high as it has ever been (rounded to the closes 1%).

This is a rich country with a lot of wealth and good paying jobs.

Of course there will still be people with !!!! lives but mostly its nowt to do with the economy or politics or anything of that nature its mostly to do with dysfunctional individuals and families causing themselves and their families chaos and pain

Oh do shut up with the ridiculous 'anyone not successful is dysfunctional' BS. Literally, put up (some evidence) or shut up. Your claim, repeated ad nauseum, is silly and offensive.