Brexit, The Economy and House Prices (Part 2)

always_sunny

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Sounds like the Facebook generation. Nothing better to do than post tripe. Nothing to do with Brexit either..

it's not the FB generation, which BTW even if it was, it's actual real people.

I have a friend who I suspect is a secret Brexiteer (which is fine) but she can't grasp the concept of fall in currency. She believes, because the GBP is above the EUR that the currency is strong, the fact that it fell from pre-referendum to now, it's irrelevant, it's more than 1EUR.

The odd thing is that she got made redundant in a previous job after the company packed up and moved to the continent (too volatile for some business) and current role she goes to the continent often and is considering moving there, she just didn't realise that she will need a visa after 2019.
She thought it only applied to EU nationals coming here, not the other way around!

CKhalvashi

Sorry I deleted it, I went to edit and hit the wrong button by accident.

I accept that many Leave voters aren't like this, however I can think of at least 1 I know IRL who would come out with something so ridiculous.

I've never gone into any negotiations worth more than the GDP of many countries however I don't accept we can do it with the optimism some portray on here.

I'm also not necessarily as pessimistic in real life as I may seem here about how things are going to go, however I am very cautious when making decisions and if going into a meeting will always try to do so with a somewhat realistic plan. The [STRIKE]question dodging[/STRIKE] solution Conrad came up with regarding EASA after I'd explained that it can take 2 years just to write the manuals for 1 aircraft type at 1 airline, let alone create a new aviation licensing system proves how unrealistic some are. That is an issue that will directly affect some family as well as some of my social circle, so it isn't something that can be glossed over.

Seems we're going to leave the jurisdiction of the ECJ but have a new body set up in the same building called the Supreme Supreme Court, leave the Customs Union but join the Union of Customs etc. It won't keep some on here happy but will do the job it's meant to do in the least destructive way possible. Oh, and on top of wanting everything to be the same we want £10bn a year to spend on whatever we like. How nice, but equally how likely to not happen.

CKhalvashi

always_sunny wrote: »

it's not the FB generation, which BTW even if it was, it's actual real people.

I have a friend who I suspect is a secret Brexiteer (which is fine) but she can't grasp the concept of fall in currency. She believes, because the GBP is above the EUR that the currency is strong, the fact that it fell from pre-referendum to now, it's irrelevant, it's more than 1EUR.

The odd thing is that she got made redundant in a previous job after the company packed up and moved to the continent (too volatile for some business) and current role she goes to the continent often and is considering moving there, she just didn't realise that she will need a visa after 2019.
She thought it only applied to EU nationals coming here, not the other way around!

Mhm, but there's stupidity and stupidity.

Anyone else remember £1 buying €1,60? That's best for people going abroad from the UK and for cheap imports.

Saying that £1 buying €1 will help our exports is partly correct in that it means I can price lower on some stuff to get the work.

It also means that imports (which we have more of than exports) are more expensive. Even without tariffs we'll be paying a 'Brexit tax' on stuff we import which is sheer stupidity IMO.

Re visas; we've planned ahead to make sure a specific category is fitted if necessary, I'm making the assumption from the post she hasn't which wouldn't be a smart move.

Thrugelmir

always_sunny wrote: »

I have a friend who I suspect is a secret Brexiteer (which is fine) but she can't grasp the concept of fall in currency. She believes, because the GBP is above the EUR that the currency is strong, the fact that it fell from pre-referendum to now, it's irrelevant, it's more than 1EUR.

To most people though it's simply a question of £x holiday spending money that will buy €x. You spend what you've got. People make do.

Rusty_Shackleton

CKhalvashi wrote: »

Sorry I deleted it, I went to edit and hit the wrong button by accident.

I accept that many Leave voters aren't like this, however I can think of at least 1 I know IRL who would come out with something so ridiculous.

I've never gone into any negotiations worth more than the GDP of many countries however I don't accept we can do it with the optimism some portray on here.

I'm also not necessarily as pessimistic in real life as I may seem here about how things are going to go, however I am very cautious when making decisions and if going into a meeting will always try to do so with a somewhat realistic plan. The [STRIKE]question dodging[/STRIKE] solution Conrad came up with regarding EASA after I'd explained that it can take 2 years just to write the manuals for 1 aircraft type at 1 airline, let alone create a new aviation licensing system proves how unrealistic some are. That is an issue that will directly affect some family as well as some of my social circle, so it isn't something that can be glossed over.

Seems we're going to leave the jurisdiction of the ECJ but have a new body set up in the same building called the Supreme Supreme Court, leave the Customs Union but join the Union of Customs etc. It won't keep some on here happy but will do the job it's meant to do in the least destructive way possible. Oh, and on top of wanting everything to be the same we want £10bn a year to spend on whatever we like. How nice, but equally how likely to not happen.

The scariest thing IMO is that few people, certainly none of us here, have a true understanding of the complexity of what leaving actually entails... We might have snippets of knowledge in a specific area, but by and large such a move is incomprehensible. Those people that do have the best idea, the senior civil servants, those who actually work in the EU, are dismissed as vested interests... So brexiters are actively only willing to listen people who don't have first hand experience!

About the only thing that leavers and remainers have in common is that none of us could have made an actual informed decision in our vote. When we vote in a GE we vote for direction, not on individual policies - the winning party often have to change what they'd like to do when civil servants and reality educate them of the situation - the referendum bypasses checks and balances that prevent the sort of chaos we're going to see.

To demonstrate how ludicrous the subject of the referendum actually was, consider what would happen if other specific questions were put to a referendum... 'should the UK ban the use of all fossil fuels' (yes vote = economic collapse, lights go out etc, no = anti-environmentalists seize on it as a mandate to scrap any green initiatives), 'should all criminals be locked up for no less than 10 years' (would probably win, until theres more people inside than out, predominantly for speeding and littering).

Asking the electorate is only sensible for gauging a mood and setting a direction, e.g. More or less state intervention, what broad areas should be prioritised - thats what a GE does. But the public have no place setting individual policies or doing anything of consequence because they cant be held to account. Politicians and civil servants can, and despite what many think of them, they actually perform incredibly important jobs and have far more expertise than the public at large.... Dur, right? But people seem to think their right to have an opinion gives their opinion equal weighting - we're truly fu**ed if that attitude is allowed to persist. The world today feels like we're putting the enlightenment in reverse. To hell with scientists, academics, experts etc. because your mates gut feeling and 'common sense' hold just as much value. Its insane.

Conrad

gfplux wrote: »

More good news for Brexiters.
http://news.sky.com/story/pound-hits-lowest-level-since-2009-against-the-euro-11001861
"The pound has hit a fresh eight-year low against the euro after the single currency was boosted by strong economic data while the UK still faces Brexit uncertainty.
Sterling slipped close to €1.08 as it continued a recent slide which has taken it beyond previous post-referendum lows.
It has not been as low since October 2009 when it came close to parity with the euro."

Giving a further turbo boost to exports. Is the pound still overvalued are Brexiters wanting the pound lower? I wonder what will satisfy Brexiters.
Do you remember when we all would laugh at the Italian Lira. Well Sterling is bidding to be the currency of jokes now.
Bendy bananas or a Banana republic. I would laugh if I were not so sad.

What is your opinion of the IMF and World Bank saying Sterling was up to 20% overvalued in the months prior to the referndum and how this was harming UK competitivness?

A reply please, not off at a tangent about experts.

Conrad

Rusty_Shackleton wrote: »

The scariest thing IMO is that few people, certainly none of us here, have a true understanding of the complexity of what leaving actually entails... We might have snippets of knowledge in a specific area, but by and large such a move is incomprehensible. Those people that do have the best idea, the senior civil servants, those who actually work in the EU, are dismissed as vested interests... So brexiters are actively only willing to listen people who don't have first hand experience!

About the only thing that leavers and remainers have in common is that none of us could have made an actual informed decision in our vote. When we vote in a GE we vote for direction, not on individual policies - the winning party often have to change what they'd like to do when civil servants and reality educate them of the situation - the referendum bypasses checks and balances that prevent the sort of chaos we're going to see.

To demonstrate how ludicrous the subject of the referendum actually was, .

Norway & Switzerland have more referndums than us. To follow your logic they should be basket cases.

Why do you ignore what the experts said about German reunification? The mandarins and Civil Servants said at the very least it would take ten years and be a major disrupt or to prosperity. Totally wrong, it was pulled off inside a year and Germany has flowered. Had it been down to your camp, change would have been shunned.

The experts said the dissolution of Czecheslovakia would cause untold misery. Again all wrong, the can-do people made it happen inside 14 months and it was a great sucess in spite of dividing up assets, Banks, currency, Govt the lot.

Why don't you read the book Futurebabble? It is a study of big ticket predictions by Economists and such like and found they are almost always wrong.


You are not comprehending how people adapt and make change for the positive when it comes to the crunch. Your narrow band of one type of expert are typically extrapolating from a current scene, they simply lack the 360 vision and purpose and cannot compute how people and business will definitely adapt and thrive.

Dont confuse real experts such as engineers with moribund timid Civil Servants that hate change.

Read your history, at every turn the settled Establishment view invariably rejects change and the new, you must have seen films about Bletchly Park and the battles to get Civil Servants to understand the big picture, same with radar and umpteen revolutions.

Rusty_Shackleton

Conrad wrote: »

What is your opinion of the IMF and World Bank saying Sterling was up to 20% overvalued in the months prior to the referndum and how this was harming UK competitivness?

A reply please, not off at a tangent about experts.

People have been saying sterling is overvalued for years. IMF actually made noise with the claim in 2015, and the FT reported it in 2014.
https://amp.ft.com/content/ec6bef86-1653-11e4-8210-00144feabdc0

No doubt you'll fine the same arguments every year going back a rather long time if you look. One of the major reasons for the claim is our chronic balance of payments problem. Slight problem though, we've had a devaluation, but its not really having the desired effect boosting exports (not nearly as much as it 'should'... Assuming you werent aware of how much of industrial input is imported), and with consumers too eager to take on credit instead of adjust their consumption downwards or favour domestic alternatives (where they exist) means that the devaluation is just making us poorer and not doing anything much about the balance of payments.

Thrugelmir

CKhalvashi wrote: »

Anyone else remember £1 buying €1,60? That's best for people going abroad from the UK and for cheap imports.

When I used to run a sideline business $ went to $2.12 at one point. Importing directly from the US was a very profitable venture in those days. Historically $1.65 was always seen as benchmark. Though a decade of Central Bank market intervention has seen the old rule book thrown out the window. Though there's a meeting shortly to discuss what the policy is to withdraw the patients off the drug. In for some interesting times. As no one knows what the consequences will be.

Conrad

I think you could do with reading up on group-think which particularly afflicts Economists and Sir Humphreys.

Ask yourself why it is they all said we would fail unless we and also Switzerland joined the Euro

Read how Churchill battled with these types, how they to a Man they said we would could not go to war as we would be defeated.

Seriously without this comprehension your view is hampered by the dead weight of timid unimaginative herd think.