Brexit, The Economy and House Prices (Part 2)

fatbeetle

Well said sir!!!

GreatApe

So who are the 20% with !!!! lives

Certainly alcoholics have !!!! lives
Certainly drug addicts have !!!! lives
Certainly gambling addicts have !!!! lives
Certainly family members of these people often have !!!! lives
Certainly people and families who suffer physical or rental abuse have !!!! lives
Etc

All forms of dysfunctional lives that are tough

That's not to write them off I think we should help were we can. Like banning retail betting even if it's a net loss to the Treasury

There are of course some functional families who also have difficult lives too. However I've never meet anyone who I thought hmmmm if only benefits are higher this dysfunctional person/family would not be dysfunctional. So I don't like it when a lefty says things are !!!! (which they aren't) and then tries to pin the blame onto taxation policy (which has little to nothing to do with the largest cause of unhappyness and suffering which is dysfunctional people/families)

gfplux

Conrad wrote: »

What is your opinion of the IMF and World Bank saying Sterling was up to 20% overvalued in the months prior to the referndum and how this was harming UK competitivness?

A reply please, not off at a tangent about experts.

I didn't/don't agree with them.

gfplux

Jon_B wrote: »

I work in a business that exclusively sells European produce into the U.K. Market. There is no UK alternative as it is a protected market (think food and you are in the right ball park). We price quarterly and right now it's carnage. Putting prices up 5% for the last quarter of this year I don't think will even cut it. Nobody knows where the £ will be at Christmas.

We actually spoke to the banks last week and they were saying they expect it to still be 1.09 next March. What do they know? It's already 1.08 and falling.

It was 1.17 only a few months ago.

The BoE will have to intervene soon and the long awaited interest rate rise cannot come soon enough to stabilise the £.

Thanks Jon, some real time knowledge and experience. Hopefully you don't have competitors with deep pockets who see this as an opportunity to grab market share.
Do tell us more as things proceed as what this thread needs is a lot less theory and more facts and experience from the coal face.

mayonnaise

Conrad wrote: »

What is your opinion of the IMF and World Bank saying Sterling was up to 20% overvalued in the months prior to the referndum and how this was harming UK competitivness?

A reply please, not off at a tangent about experts.

Ok, no experts, so I'll just quote some chap from MSE.

Conrad wrote: »

Are the IMF ever right on anything?

Conrad wrote: »

They all take turns at the EU trough, the EU funded IMF and all the rest.

Conrad wrote: »

The entire establishment, economists, BOE, IMF all suffer group think

I'm rather surprised you've taken on Group Think, Conrad.
What happened?
There's this book I read, highly recommended. It's called Future Babble.

vivatifosi

gfplux wrote: »

Thanks Jon, some real time knowledge and experience. Hopefully you don't have competitors with deep pockets who see this as an opportunity to grab market share.
Do tell us more as things proceed as what this thread needs is a lot less theory and more facts and experience from the coal face.

Apologies for answering with theory gfplux, but economic theory would suggest substitution.for items with Protected Geographical Status. So if the price of Champagnes rise by an amount that the market can't take, there will be some substitution with Prosecco, Cava, etc. Or alternatively some will be put off buying.

The same could also happen to meats, cheeses etc, some will substitute with a different product that is close enough.

One of my friends imports wines and they say that due to the fall in the pound all of their buffer has gone. Supermarkets refuse to absorb the increase, some customers stop buying or buy less, and some such as local restaurateurs appreciate the product and continue to buy.

It will be interesting to hear back from Jon in a few months to hear what his firm did and how they managed the situation.

Jon_B_2

We are having our customers who sell to the general public pleading with us asking what is going on and at what point do we all stop our margins being eroded?

My answer - pass it on to the consumer. The business community needs to man up and put the price increases through. Joe public still sees brexit as having no impact and it is purely because businesses are haemorrhaging margin left right and centre for fear of losing custom.

I've seen many smaller businesses already go out of business since brexit. Customers are trading down to alternative products to lessen the commercial impact. The problem is, so many customers are already at the bottom - so where do they go from there? They must put prices up.

The BoE must intervene as you cannot wait for inflation to get to 5% before you decide something is up.

gfplux

mayonnaise wrote: »

Ok, no experts, so I'll just quote some chap from MSE.





I'm rather surprised you've taken on Group Think, Conrad.
What happened?
There's this book I read, highly recommended. It's called Future Babble.

Bowled, middle stump, as they say.

economic

GreatApe wrote: »

So who are the 20% with !!!! lives

Certainly alcoholics have !!!! lives
Certainly drug addicts have !!!! lives
Certainly gambling addicts have !!!! lives
Certainly family members of these people often have !!!! lives
Certainly people and families who suffer physical or rental abuse have !!!! lives
Etc

All forms of dysfunctional lives that are tough

That's not to write them off I think we should help were we can. Like banning retail betting even if it's a net loss to the Treasury

There are of course some functional families who also have difficult lives too. However I've never meet anyone who I thought hmmmm if only benefits are higher this dysfunctional person/family would not be dysfunctional. So I don't like it when a lefty says things are !!!! (which they aren't) and then tries to pin the blame onto taxation policy (which has little to nothing to do with the largest cause of unhappyness and suffering which is dysfunctional people/families)

also people with mental health issues. i suffer from depression but i can imagine if my condition had been worse i would have found it difficult to get to where i am today.

also not a lot of people like to talk about it but very low IQ can hurt your income, but even then its possible to live a decent life. but generally iq is (highly) positively correlated to income. IQ is genetic and you can not change it materially which is why people tend to stay in their own socio-economic class throughout their lives.

upbringing as well makes a big difference for obvious reasons (and is probaby one of the main reasons for the dysfunctions you mention). so really ones life is pretty much determind my genetics and upbringing/parenting.

which means that increasing taxes to give to the people with !!!! lives wont help as they will squander it. e.g. low iq people tend to not save for the future.

always_sunny

Jon_B wrote: »

The BoE must intervene as you cannot wait for inflation to get to 5% before you decide something is up.

What do you want the BoE to do and what the consequences will be?
Reality is, it's between a rock and a hard place.