Brexit, The Economy and House Prices (Part 2)

vivatifosi

gfplux wrote: »

Thank you for those Brexit links. Are you sure this is the right thread for them?

I was beginning to wonder!

gfplux

Some posters on this thread who have or are discussing Brexit have suggested that we are about to enter a "golden age" of increased exports manufactured in Britain.
Here is a view that differs from that.
http://www.businessinsider.fr/uk/commerzbanks-peter-dixon-on-uk-manufacturing-after-brexit-2017-8/

"LONDON — There is "not a chance" that the British economy will start to rebalance away from the services sector and towards manufacturing after Brexit, despite arguments to the contrary from many of those who backed leaving the European Union, according to the chief UK economist at Germany's second largest lender, Commerzbank.

Speaking to Business Insider this week, Commerzbank's Peter Dixon said that the UK is "starting from too far behind" to fundamentally readjust back towards manufacturing having "made a decision 30 years ago" to make the UK a services economy.
"There's a number of reasons," why moving back to manufacturing simply wouldn't work, Dixon said.
"One is that we've allowed our manufacturing sector to atrophy, and actually we've basically crushed loads of parts of it over the last 30 or 40 years."

vivatifosi

I think that there is scope to grow through manufacturing, in high tech areas such as graphene and 3D printing. The problem is that this won't bring a jobs boost. I think that the much missed generali and kabayiri have often said similar.

kabayiri

vivatifosi wrote: »

I think that there is scope to grow through manufacturing, in high tech areas such as graphene and 3D printing. The problem is that this won't bring a jobs boost. I think that the much missed generali and kabayiri have often said similar.

3D printing could lead to on-demand production of many goods, something which would be a holy grail to many manufacturers. It changes the nature of how we view production centres.

Work in progress is a major cost centre.

There's not really much point in talking long term vision though. I never hear any long term planning from this or any recent government.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

gfplux wrote: »

Some posters on this thread who have or are discussing Brexit have suggested that we are about to enter a "golden age" of increased exports manufactured in Britain.
Here is a view that differs from that.
http://www.businessinsider.fr/uk/commerzbanks-peter-dixon-on-uk-manufacturing-after-brexit-2017-8/

"LONDON — There is "not a chance" that the British economy will start to rebalance away from the services sector and towards manufacturing after Brexit, despite arguments to the contrary from many of those who backed leaving the European Union, according to the chief UK economist at Germany's second largest lender, Commerzbank.

Speaking to Business Insider this week, Commerzbank's Peter Dixon said that the UK is "starting from too far behind" to fundamentally readjust back towards manufacturing having "made a decision 30 years ago" to make the UK a services economy.
"There's a number of reasons," why moving back to manufacturing simply wouldn't work, Dixon said.
"One is that we've allowed our manufacturing sector to atrophy, and actually we've basically crushed loads of parts of it over the last 30 or 40 years."

That's a view shared by Patrick Minford, the head economist at 'Economists for Brexit' who said in testimony to a parliament committee that....

"Over time, if we left the EU, it seems likely that we would mostly eliminate manufacturing, leaving mainly industries such as design, marketing and hi-tech."

Herzlos

That and we need to import a lot of the materials we'd be using to build stuff with now, or move to more and more invasive mining operations (for example, what's left of our coal or iron ore).

We could lead the world in green power, eliminating our reliance on imported energy (electricity/gas/oil), but even then that'd only reduce our imports rather than increase our exports.

On anything labour intensive, we just can't compete with the far East unless our standards drop further than theirs, and I doubt anyone (except the Tory Barons) want to see us in a race to the bottom.

So we're left with the really high tech (likely reliant on imports) and cottage industries.

always_sunny

kabayiri wrote: »

3D printing could lead to on-demand production of many goods, something which would be a holy grail to many manufacturers. It changes the nature of how we view production centres.

When exactly? in 10? 20 years time perhaps and not the full spectrum.

CKhalvashi

vivatifosi wrote: »

I think that there is scope to grow through manufacturing, in high tech areas such as graphene and 3D printing. The problem is that this won't bring a jobs boost. I think that the much missed generali and kabayiri have often said similar.

In high value sectors largely IMO there is a lot of potential. I can think of a company off the top of my head that has around 20% of the UK market, not sure how much they export (but haven't seen any of their products on the mainland), yet their products, while specialist, are one of the highest quality I've seen, even when competing with much more expensive products.

There's current annual demand for around 200 'packages' of their product in the UK, probably about 1000 across the EU, however they need to get themselves out there. They've supplied contractors of mine in the past, are a 6 year old company, and while the product is not particularly high tech, with a typical package of goods retails for about £10k (and a gross margin probably averaging 20% of that although in all honesty I have no idea) they could be one of the winners. Tariffs are IIRC around the 4% mark.

Their products are certified to EU standard as necessary. Not sure whether a whole type approval was necessary, or whether they're relying on 'small run' licensing for the industry, which may hamper their abilities a little as the cost of whole type approval can be huge.

Technology sector would naturally come into this too, although isn't my area of expertise.

always_sunny

Rusty_Shackleton wrote: »

immigrants definitely shouldnt be housed anywhere near there. Why the hell should someone whos come to this country get to choose to be housed at public expense, in an area with shortages?!

Because once someone is settled in the UK, regardless of their nationality, they are treated the same way as British with the exclusion of voting. This is pretty much the same as everywhere else.

Herzlos

kabayiri wrote: »

3D printing could lead to on-demand production of many goods, something which would be a holy grail to many manufacturers. It changes the nature of how we view production centres.

3d printing is unlikely to ever catch up with injection moulding or any other mass production technique.

It'll definitely have it's place, particularly in difficuly supply chain areas (say, an island), low space (like a mobile shop) or low production runs (like vintage car parts).

Other than needing a spoon now, would I be better getting one 3d printed in my local shop Vs getting it mail ordered from a factory for a quarter of the cost or going to a bigger shop to collect it.