Brexit, The Economy and House Prices (Part 2)

ThinkingOutLoud_2

always_sunny wrote: »

Depends on what numbers you want the numbers to mean, employment figures are just that.
Take the Czech republic, unemployment is 2.9% but average wages are less than £1k/month.
Is the UK aspiring to be fully employed on lower wages?
Is it better to have a bit more unemployment but a mix of higher/low paid jobs?

Well TBH that is the point - how can the fullest employment since 1975 with the protection of minimum wage be the doom and gloom you seem to suggest?

Of course, everyone wants higher pay and with a fuller the employment situation - the harder it will become for companies to recruit without paying more.

Unless in your view the goals should be 20% unemployment and high wages for those with a job???

Not quite sure of the relevance of the Czech average wages either, where cost of living is wildly different.

Thrugelmir

always_sunny wrote: »

Take the Czech republic, unemployment is 2.9% but average wages are less than £1k/month.

Hence why a considerable number of car manufacturers are based there. As employing people is cheap. Relative to the EU as a whole. Trouble is pressure will mount in time. No doubt with the adoption of a minimum structure across the whole of the EU. To bring countries into line.

Given the nature of the exports. Hardly surprising that the UK is the 3rd largest export market. Another reminder of the importance of a trade deal to a particular country and group of multi national companies. .

gfplux

Rusty_Shackleton wrote: »

Brexit blamed for 260 job losses as UK food supplier Southern Salads collapses into administration

Discuss....

It is directly linked to Brexit as the management were not hedging their currency exposure. They were taken by surprise at the referendum result (as many were) and the drop in Sterling killed them.
Very sad and I am sure they are not the only ones caught out by the currency.
If you buy or sell in a different currency you should always hedge the currency. It should be a normal business expense.
These were salad people not currency traders but they thought better.

gfplux

Rinoa wrote: »

You're not going to find the data because it isn't there.

True, some will contribute by paying taxes, but unskilled migrants on minimum wage don't pay taxes, they receive health care and schooling for their kids (around £3k p.a per pupil) and enjoy a free house (average price £200,000?) just for being here.

Easy to see what attracts them, I'd do the same if I were them. But economically it's a very bad deal for UK plc.

"Enjoy a free house" when did an EU immigrant get a free house? Are you trying to tempt me back to the UK?

gfplux

always_sunny wrote: »

Does it or is it something that's perceived as necessary? 80% of exports might go through the UK though it doesn't mean it can't change.
What percentage of the UK export currently relies on the EU? Yet the assumption is that it can handle an abrupt cut.

Re-routing from Cork to Roscoff seems much feasible than importing/exporting from/to the UK to faraway places. There's going to be an impact but it's not perhaps going to be catastrophic.

I wonder how many lorrys that 80% represent. I have pointed out that halting/diverting those lorrys would be a major plus for England as there would be more space on the road.
Wow I have pointed out a Brexit plus!!!!
Ireland together with the EU must (surely) be looking at the alternative sea route.
There would need to be infrastructure investment and probably a EU subsidy for a time to pay any additional costs for transport.

Yes this is a post about Brexit in a Brexit thread.

gfplux

bobbymotors wrote: »

one instance of 260 jobs lost

And those jobs are nothing to do with Brexit.

I was in that trade...and when prices of the product go up (or down) they go up or down for everyone that buys them.

the fact of the matter is that the produce trade for supermarket supply is incredibly competitive and the big supermarket buyers will suddenly drop you / return a consignment / tell YOU what they are going to pay for what you've supplied them etc on the slightest whim just to keep you keen.

It looks to me like they tried to expand too fast with insufficient funding.

All bad news seems to be blamed on Brexit but it's rarely the cause.

They made business plans to expand but were saving on costs by NOT hedging the currency. Of course seasonal price variation effects all suppliers but they got caught by sterlings drop in value which is DIRECTLY linked to the Brexit vote.

This is a Brexit related post in the Brexit thread.

mayonnaise

Rinoa wrote: »

True, some will contribute by paying taxes, but unskilled migrants on minimum wage don't pay taxes, they receive health care and schooling for their kids (around £3k p.a per pupil) and enjoy a free house (average price £200,000?) just for being here.

gfplux wrote: »

"Enjoy a free house" when did an EU immigrant get a free house?

It was in the Express, so it must be true.

Rusty_Shackleton

ThinkingOutLoud wrote: »

Well TBH that is the point - how can the fullest employment since 1975 with the protection of minimum wage be the doom and gloom you seem to suggest?

Of course, everyone wants higher pay and with a fuller the employment situation - the harder it will become for companies to recruit without paying more.

Unless in your view the goals should be 20% unemployment and high wages for those with a job???

Not quite sure of the relevance of the Czech average wages either, where cost of living is wildly different.

The UK does not have a low rate of unemployment. If we had a genuinely low rate of unemployment, pay wouldnt be shrinking in real terms. Article on it here places rate at more like 20pc although personally i think the part time wanting full time figures probably inflate it more than they should.

buglawton

Rusty_Shackleton wrote: »

The UK does not have a low rate of unemployment. If we had a genuinely low rate of unemployment, pay wouldnt be shrinking in real terms. Article on it here places rate at more like 20pc although personally i think the part time wanting full time figures probably inflate it more than they should.

Can 'people working hard but would like more money and an easier life' be added to the unemployment figures? In which case I might nominate myself.

One other little thing to remember: Before the 1970s mainly the male married partner worked and a non working wife would never be counted as unemployed or seeking work. Times do change.

fatbeetle

Rusty_Shackleton wrote: »

The UK does not have a low rate of unemployment..

The unemployment rate in the eurozone has fallen to its lowest since February 2009, according to the latest official figures. The rate dropped to 9.1% last month, from a downwardly revised 9.2% in May

Greece has the highest rate of unemployment in the eurozone at 21.7%, and also the highest rate of youth unemployment at 45.5%,

The second highest unemployment rate was 17.1% in Spain, which was down from 19.9% a year earlier. Spain also had the second highest level of youth unemployment among 15-24 year olds at 39.2%.

I'd take our unemployment rate any day.

Not forgetting; One in five unemployed people in the UK are migrants, official figures have revealed for the first time. The figures show that 317,000 migrants are unemployed, including 98,000 who were born in the EU and 219,000 born outside the EU.