Brexit, The Economy and House Prices (Part 2)

always_sunny

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Do all public sector services offer value for money though.

Is there adequate control over those responsible for spending tax payers money.

There's many perceptions that require a very thorough review and overhaul.

It doesn't matter if they do or not unless you can opt out.
I would gladly opt out of my health care contribution and state pension if I could and organise it myself separately.

Thrugelmir

gfplux wrote: »

Back to Brexit.
I have read a lot and heard a lot about the British position paper on the Irish and Northern Irish border.

Quotes such as "a smugglers charter" and "can you imagine either side allowing customs men to come across the border and inspect good" and "there are plenty of people who would react with violence"

Can this plan work given the history?

Eire needs the UK. More than the UK needs Eire. 80% of the exports from the Republic pass through the UK. Now that's a major trade issue. That the EU has to factor into it's overall negotiating position. Otherwise will alienate.

always_sunny

GreatApe wrote: »

How can a bin man who does a clearly necessary job be a drain to society?

I can only assume it's because historically bin men have been regarded as lower skill jobs and paid accordingly. I don't see why a bin man should not earn the same or even more than any other council worker (desk job).

Not sure what it has to do with Brexit though!

ThinkingOutLoud_2

Herzlos wrote: »

How many job losses are needed before we go from "only" to "oh, we have a problem? "

Are we reading the news in different universe from you?

• FT "UK employment hits record high"
• Guardian "UK pay growth picks up as unemployment rate falls again"
• BBC "Unemployment in the UK fell by 57,000 in the three months to June,"
• vs one instance of 260 jobs lost? Tragic for those involved till they find another for sure, BUT not net losses.

Of course, this data needs digging into and there are some aspects that are less good - but surely this is positive in that more than ever at least have some kind of some job?

always_sunny

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Eire needs the UK. More than the UK needs Eire. 80% of the exports from the Republic pass through the UK. Now that's a major trade issue. That the EU has to factor into it's overall negotiating position. Otherwise will alienate.

Does it or is it something that's perceived as necessary? 80% of exports might go through the UK though it doesn't mean it can't change.
What percentage of the UK export currently relies on the EU? Yet the assumption is that it can handle an abrupt cut.

Re-routing from Cork to Roscoff seems much feasible than importing/exporting from/to the UK to faraway places. There's going to be an impact but it's not perhaps going to be catastrophic.

ThinkingOutLoud_2

always_sunny wrote: »

Does it or is it something that's perceived as necessary? 80% of exports might go through the UK though it doesn't mean it can't change.
What percentage of the UK export currently relies on the EU? Yet the assumption is that it can handle an abrupt cut.

Re-routing from Cork to Roscoff seems much feasible than importing/exporting from/to the UK to faraway places. There's going to be an impact but it's not perhaps going to be catastrophic.

There net trade balance is EIRE vs UK within around 10% from what I can see and moves around.

But is MUTUAL trade with Ireland is circa 20Bn out of 425Bn globally so important, BUT!

Where is you proof it will be abrupt anyway?

always_sunny

ThinkingOutLoud wrote: »

Are we reading the news in different universe from you?

• FT "UK employment hits record high"
• Guardian "UK pay growth picks up as unemployment rate falls again"
• BBC "Unemployment in the UK fell by 57,000 in the three months to June,"
• vs one instance of 260 jobs lost? Tragic for those involved till they find another for sure, BUT not net losses.

Of course, this data needs digging into and there are some aspects that are less good - but surely this is positive in that more than ever at least have some kind of some job?

Depends on what numbers you want the numbers to mean, employment figures are just that.
Take the Czech republic, unemployment is 2.9% but average wages are less than £1k/month.
Is the UK aspiring to be fully employed on lower wages?
Is it better to have a bit more unemployment but a mix of higher/low paid jobs?

kabayiri

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Eire needs the UK. More than the UK needs Eire. 80% of the exports from the Republic pass through the UK. Now that's a major trade issue. That the EU has to factor into it's overall negotiating position. Otherwise will alienate.

Of course this is true, but for now they will all pretend that everyone has all of Irelands best interests at heart.

It sounds nicer than throwing your neighbour under the bus.

Thrugelmir

GreatApe wrote: »

The problem is, and I have talked about this elsewhere on this thread, its difficult to allocate true economic value by just looking at someones income tax payments.

For instance lets pretend there are no foreigners in this country. Lets look at bin men a job that is clearly vital and needs doing. Well they get paid about £17k a year and thus pay very little in income tax the family with a bin man as the bread winner is on first accounting a huge drain on the public purse they pay very little in taxes and get lots in services and likely benefits too

With fewer people living here. They'd be a requirement for fewer bin men. It's a physically demanding job that won't be so easy once someone is their fifties and sixties. That's when the demands on the public sector kick in.

bobbymotors

one instance of 260 jobs lost

And those jobs are nothing to do with Brexit.

I was in that trade...and when prices of the product go up (or down) they go up or down for everyone that buys them.

the fact of the matter is that the produce trade for supermarket supply is incredibly competitive and the big supermarket buyers will suddenly drop you / return a consignment / tell YOU what they are going to pay for what you've supplied them etc on the slightest whim just to keep you keen.

It looks to me like they tried to expand too fast with insufficient funding.

All bad news seems to be blamed on Brexit but it's rarely the cause.