Brexit, The Economy and House Prices (Part 2)

kabayiri

ilovehouses wrote: »

If barriers and tariffs are imposed the anger will be aimed at the British because we decided to let parliament decide whether Spanish tomatoes will be subject to an import tax or not.

I think they'll wonder why we wanted more expensive and lower quality produce than we currently enjoy and then get on with their day.
...

Argentina have already said they would relish the opportunity to sell more produce to a major market like the UK.

I suppose a problem from one national state is an opportunity for another state.

People worry about losing basic Eastern European labour, but the world is awash with labour. If we dropped the wage restrictions, we could important masses from elsewhere on temporary work visas.

Conrad

ilovehouses wrote: »

If barriers and tariffs are imposed the anger will be aimed at the British because we decided to let parliament decide whether Spanish tomatoes will be subject to an import tax or not.

We want a free trade agreement, why are you suggesting we will be imposing barriers and tariffs, only Brussels will do this and of course harm would affect the UK and those Spanish farmers and Danish meat producers.

Would you think Spanish farmers, French wine producers and Dutch flower growers will go along with Brussels deliberately harming their UK sales? What will the 5 million EU workers employed in trade with UK make of this self harm?


The Canadian free trade deal is for trade worth currently 10 x less than the EU does with the UK. Do you think the EU will happily have a deal with Canada worth ten x less but not want to carry on with free trade with UK? (before you mention 10 year nonsense, we are already fully aligned with EU whereas Canada was not)




Taking back full autonomy does not automatically mean Europeans will self-harm their own sales to the UK, I bet in the end common sense will prevail unless British Remainers act in concert with Brussels to produce a poor deal to frighten UK voters into cancelling Brexit.

kabayiri

ilovehouses wrote: »

...
Importing a load of poor foreign people on temporary visas to live in barracks and be paid a pittance is the very last thing that's going to happen.

Err, my cousin has a bunch of Lithuanians and Poles working in a factory and living in accommodation attached right now.

And that's while we are inside the EU. So why wouldn't he look for cheap labour elsewhere?

kabayiri

ilovehouses wrote: »

My understanding was that you were unhappy about the high rates of pay these Poles and Lithuanians were entitled to. You want more desperate people as it helps keeps costs down - maybe they'll live in tents.

Well, you could have asked me.

I'm not unhappy about any of those things. We pay decent rates for non-EU technical skills. Increasingly, they don't even have to come here as much now. More can be done remotely. We'd use EU labour but there are more skilled people outside the EU.

I'm just being realistic about the direction of travel. The EU expansion was a way of getting fairly cheap compliant labour as much as anything. This suits companies which need this sort of thing, but they could just as easily lobby a future government to find it elsewhere.

In a couple of decades time we won't need much of this labour anyway.

setmefree2

Experts said the number of new National Insurance Numbers allocated to migrants from the so-called Accession 8 or A8 nations had fallen to its lowest level since they joined the European Union 13 years ago.
National Insurance Numbers, or NINos, are regarded as a guideline to migration as they are required by people seeking to work legally or claim benefits or tax credits in the UK.
Although NINo numbers include people here only for a short time and do not indicate when they arrived, the data appears to bear out recent long-term migration estimates which also pointed to a dramatic fall in people arriving last year from the A8.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/819411/brexit-immigration-lower-central-eastern-europe

Just over 26,000 NINos were registered to their nationals in the first three months of this year.That was about a third below the same period last year when there were nearly 40,000 and the lowest for any first quarter since they joined.

It was also a fraction of the peak quarterly figure of more than 111,000 recorded in the first three months of 2007.The number of NINo registrations from more established EU states is also down but the change was most marked for the A8.

setmefree2

Britain’s public sector borrowing bill fell last month as the country scooped up the highest VAT receipts for any May on record.
According to the latest batch of official data, the UK’s public sector net borrowing bill for the month (excluding banks) fell to £6.713bn from £7.05bn last year, in line with analyst forecasts and the lowest May borrowing total since 2007.
The Office for National Statistics said VAT receipts hit £11.2bn in May, up 4.3 per cent in the year and the best on record.

https://www.ft.com/content/7dc2e42e-6bf9-3130-b7bd-e5f2b5a865d1

As prices go up - VAT receipts go up. Every cloud.

mayonnaise

The benefits of brexit and trashing our currency....VAT receipts go up. :rotfl:

mayonnaise

Soros says Britain nearing tipping point, may reverse Brexit

"The moment of truth is fast approaching," Soros said in an article emailed to reporters.

"The fact is that Brexit is a lose-lose proposition, harmful both to Britain and the European Union. It cannot be undone, but people can change their minds."

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-politics-soros-idUKKBN19B1J0

mayonnaise

Cobra beer founder Lord Karan Bilimoria says EU withdrawal might not happen

The co-founder of Cobra beer has said that he does not think that Britain will end up leaving the EU, once people become aware of the full impact a split will have on business and the economy.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-latest-cobra-beer-founder-lord-karan-bilimoria-eu-withdrawal-george-soros-a7800206.html

mayonnaise

Britain leaving EU now 'very much open to question', Lord Heseltine says

“The idea of a hard Brexit is not credible”, he said. “I don’t think there’s the majority for it in Parliament. We have a split cabinet, we have a split country and at the first meeting [of Brexit negotiations with the EU] we lost the argument on the issue of the bill we are going to have to pay.”

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-uk-eu-withdrawal-open-question-lord-michael-heseltine-a7800566.html