Brexit, The Economy and House Prices (Part 2)

A_Medium_Size_Jock

ilovehouses wrote: »

I'd love to have your confidence.

The Queen saying something doesn't make the future any more of a reality.

One thing we know about Mrs. May is the lady's for turning.

Given the tenuous position of Mrs May the link really should've specified which Prime Minister's vision of Brexit is the one to be delivered: May's Hammond's, Johnson's.

That's before we even talk about the fair chance the Tories are going to have to go it alone at some point without DUP support.

My confidence?
Unless I have been somehow promoted in absentia, nope; perhaps you need to better understand what The Queen's Speech is?
This may help:

In a nutshell, it is a list of the laws that the government hopes to get approved by Parliament over the coming year. By convention, it is announced by the Sovereign in the presence of MPs, peers and other dignitaries in the House of Lords.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-32816450


You might well be correct that the government stance is tenuous, indeed the same publication I quoted earlier says so quite clearly.

For Prime Minister Theresa May, who lost her House of Commons majority after calling a snap election, the centerpiece of that occasion, the queen’s speech, is a critical test of her authority. If she cannot get enough votes in the House of Commons to support the broad outline of her program then her government will almost certainly fall.

http://www.politico.eu/article/queen-speech-2017-theresa-may-how-the-queens-speech-could-bring-down/

We will soon see if The Queen's Speech is accepted as opposed to your version, whatever that might be.
But to clarify, it isn't my plan.
It is the plan of Theresa May's government which I bring to the attention of readers of this thread.

gfplux

kabayiri wrote: »

Err, my cousin has a bunch of Lithuanians and Poles working in a factory and living in accommodation attached right now.

And that's while we are inside the EU. So why wouldn't he look for cheap labour elsewhere?

I understand the British Government will shortly be asking all EU nationals to register. This will enable those people to be included in the Brit/EU Citizens rights and residence deal.
So those workers will be able to stay on in Britain.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Further cuts in Corporation Tax are on the cards it seems:

Prime Minister Theresa May said on Wednesday her government would continue to cut corporation tax to encourage businesses to invest in Britain and help the economy grow.
"If we're going to grasp the opportunities as we leave the European Union, we need to build a stronger economy," she told parliament

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-politics-corporationtax-idUKKBN19C242

gfplux

gfplux wrote: »

Here is an article from the Wort that discussed the process by which the European Medicins Agency EMA and the European Banking Agency EBA will relocate.

There is some "opinion" within the piece but the facts quoted are accurate as we speak.

https://www.wort.lu/en/business/this-week-eurovision-style-fight-for-uk-based-eu-agencies-begins-594a085fa5e74263e13c290c

A couple of quotes (trying not to be accused of taking them out of context)

1) The EMA, which has been based in London since 1995, employs nearly 900 people and accounted for nearly 30,000 nights of hotel stays by visitors in 2015, according to EU figures.
For its part the EBA, set up in 2011, employs 190 people and accounts for 9,000 hotel nights a year.
But while the competition for the agencies is tough, the EU is doing all it can to ensure it maintains a unified front in public as it heads into Brexit negotiations.
"There's a lot of posturing at the moment, but in the end it's about the unity of the 27" remaining EU nations, a senior EU official said.

2) (AFP) With a points-based voting system and fierce national pride at stake, it resembles nothing so much as the Eurovision Song Contest.
But the European Union will this week kick off a less glamorous but more lucrative battle -- for the right to host two London-based EU agencies after Britain leaves the bloc.
At a summit in Brussels this week, the leaders of the remaining 27 EU countries will endorse the process for choosing where the European Medicines Agency (EMA) and European Banking Authority (EBA) will move to.
A final vote by secret ballot is expected in October.

For the amusement of all......they could not agree and have kicked the decision upstairs.

http://www.politico.eu/article/eba-ema-eu-cant-decide-how-to-relocate-agencies-marooned-by-brexit/?utm_source=POLITICO.EU&utm_campaign=1fdf0ceae0-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_06_21&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_10959edeb5-1fdf0ceae0-190026745

"That means European affairs ministers will now have to defer the final decision on where to relocate the European Medicines Agency and the European Banking Authority — which must leave London because of Brexit — to EU leaders who meet in Brussels on Thursday and Friday. It marks the third time an EU institution has had to pass the agencies decision onto someone else."

gfplux

While I am strongly against Brexit and hope that in the end it won't happen Britain should worry about the lost opportunity cost.
The British Parliament plus 100's and perhaps 1000's of civil servants are going to spend the next 21 months doing virtually nothing else but Brexit.
While unquantifiable the lost opportunity cost will be high.

In fact here is a small element of it.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/21/at-least-750-whitehall-policy-experts-to-relocate-to-brexit-departments-jeremy-heywood?utm_source=POLITICO.EU&utm_campaign=1fdf0ceae0-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_06_21&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_10959edeb5-1fdf0ceae0-190026745

"Sir Jeremy Heywood, the cabinet secretary, is planning to relocate at least 750 policy experts from across Whitehall to five key Brexit departments without any extra cash to cover the cost of replacing them.
In further evidence of the drain upon resources by Britain’s complex negotiations to leave the EU, the head of the civil service asked last month for experienced policy developers to be prepared to move as soon as possible.
The “policy professionals” will go to the Department for Exiting the EU), the Department for International Trade, the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs and the Home Office."

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Italian Premier Paolo Gentiloni's view of the impact of Brexit on the EU:

Premier Paolo Gentiloni said Wednesday that Brexit was not the beginning of the end for the European Union and may end up making the bloc stronger as he reported to the Senate before this week's EU summit. "One could say that, more than a death knell for the EU project, Brexit has been a very loud wake-up call," Gentiloni said.

"We must honestly say that, despite some steps forward, the speed at which the EU moves on common migration policies remains dramatically below the government's demands and the requirements to manage this phenomenon,"

http://www.ansa.it/english/news/2017/06/21/brexit-not-eu-death-knell-but-wake-up-call-gentiloni-2_d445041b-9a82-466e-8f81-def1740f051e.html

Thrugelmir

gfplux wrote: »

I understand the British Government will shortly be asking all EU nationals to register. This will enable those people to be included in the Brit/EU Citizens rights and residence deal.
So those workers will be able to stay on in Britain.

Also ensure that they pay their taxes.

Be far fewer car washes in a couple of years time.

kabayiri

gfplux wrote: »

I understand the British Government will shortly be asking all EU nationals to register. This will enable those people to be included in the Brit/EU Citizens rights and residence deal.
So those workers will be able to stay on in Britain.

Point is they are just workers. He doesn't really care where they come from, and why should he?

Do you care about the people who make your iPhone or laptop?

Nope.

I thought you were into this globalization malarchy.

kabayiri

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Also ensure that they pay their taxes.

Be far fewer car washes in a couple of years time.

So where will I go now for my cheap hooky goods?

I like the blokes who wash the cars, but it's far short of a sustainable business model.

Rinoa

gfplux wrote: »

For the amusement of all......they could not agree and have kicked the decision upstairs.

http://www.politico.eu/article/eba-ema-eu-cant-decide-how-to-relocate-agencies-marooned-by-brexit/?utm_source=POLITICO.EU&utm_campaign=1fdf0ceae0-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_06_21&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_10959edeb5-1fdf0ceae0-190026745

"That means European affairs ministers will now have to defer the final decision on where to relocate the European Medicines Agency and the European Banking Authority — which must leave London because of Brexit — to EU leaders who meet in Brussels on Thursday and Friday. It marks the third time an EU institution has had to pass the agencies decision onto someone else."

That should tell us just how unified the EU really is.