Brexit, The Economy and House Prices (Part 2)

TadleyBaggie

Max Roger, sort of appropriate name.

CKhalvashi

Can I just point out how confused I am (as are many others) by the Daily Mail's stance on this? (from yesterday)

They campaigned to get the EU border tightened and when it does happen the EU are to blame for tightening the border.....

Sapphire

phillw wrote: »

I'm not saying any such thing. I'm saying there were a lot of brexit voters who thought they were voting to give the NHS £350 million a week.

Do you actually understand what Free Trade is? Because I'm guessing you think you do, but you don't. This is common among leave voters, so the conversations where everyone goaded each other into voting to leave (similar to a suicide pact) won't have helped your decision processes.

Nonsense. No one I know who voted to leave the EU did so for the reason you allege. They all did their research and thought in depth about their choice – they did not 'goad each other' (yours is a frankly ludicrous 'argument' to try to 'argue' your case). :rotfl:

Leaving the EU is about much more than money – it is also about sovereignty; about not having been given a choice as to whether we wanted to be part of an empire, primarily run by one country, with our hard-won sovereignty, achieved over centuries, removed; about the removal of democracy and being ordered about by petty, unpleasant, unelected would-be dictators; about being in charge of our own destiny and being able to vote in who we choose ('good' or 'bad'). The leavers I know certainly thought about these issues a lot more than did those who voted to remain – most of the latter had their own self-interests at heart, including many very affluent public figures who profit from the EU, aka taxpayers (e.g. Mandelsson, Kinnock, Bliar, Heseltine, et. al, not to mention the grossly overpaid individuals at the BBC).

Also for your information, I know people who voted remain and who would now vote leave.:T

always_sunny

CKhalvashi wrote: »

Can I just point out how confused I am (as are many others) by the Daily Mail's stance on this? (from yesterday)

They campaigned to get the EU border tightened and when it does happen the EU are to blame for tightening the border.....

And of course, it's only the British who suffer the most! :rotfl:
No wonder folks here are paranoid about the EU!

phillw

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Is there? Have you surveyed them all? Define "a lot" if you're so sure. Tell us how many, a percentage is fine we can do the maths.

I haven't asked everyone, but all the people I asked said it was a reason they voted to leave. I'm sure there were plenty of xenophobics, facists, racists etc that didn't need that lie put on the side of the bus though. The leave side thought it was important enough to risk telling the lie though.

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

We don't require customs union membership to have a trade deal with the EU.

To have a trade deal no, to have a free trade agreement we do.

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

What did you think free trade was, perhaps I can help you further?

No quotas, no restrictions, no tariffs. The EU will not give us that deal without free movement, paying our way, adhering to european courts etc. They have to enforce that, or free trade cannot work. Our government would refuse visas for employees of any company to stop them coming here and competing, they would do the same. Without a free trade agreement we have limits to what we can trade with them, the levels and they will make the imports less attractive by slapping an import tariff on us. If we're outside the customs union, but have a free trade agreement. Then everything would be imported to us, then exported to the EU. Which would make the customs union pointless. So they can't do it it, no magical thinking will change this.

It's not about punishment, although the way the UK is behaving certainly deserves it, it's about practicality. When you have a cancer that affects the body, you cut it out. We're the cancer.

Private_Church

Herzlos wrote: »

Maybe it's selfish, but I'd much rather have something a bit more concrete than hope before gambling with my childrens future. What if this downturn you're willing to endure lasts for more than generation? Will you be happy for your children to have a vastly reduced quality of life in the hopes that eventually they or they descendents will be able to claw their way back to where you were?

And remaining in an inflexible union of 27 other countries (soon to be 33+) all with their own agenda is a viable prospect for the future?..... Seriously? The EU is being suffocated by political dogma, with each year that passes, its relevance on the world stage diminishes, its percentage of the worlds trade diminishes and you think I'm the gambler?. .........;)

If there was any credible path to prosperity in Brexit I'd consider it,

Show me the credible path in staying............... You give the impression the EU will be the same in a decades time, this may come as a bit of a shock but it won't.

but I'd much rather my kids grew up with stability and the options open to me (exchange & knowledge sharing programs, a larger job market, free movement).

Stability in the EU? Migrant crisis,Euro crisis, Greek debt crisis and the list goes on...........As for the "free movement" rubbish dispite what you may think the vast majority of young Brits neither work nor live in the EU. There are roughly 800-900,000 Poles living in the UK and around 26,000 Brits living in Poland so you tell me is freedom of movement that important to Brits? I say not otherwise more of us would go and live/work there. I remember going to various countries in the EU before FOM and it was never a problem to get into or out of European countries.

The longest wait we ever had was in Malta where we had to spend 10 minutes filling out a visa form.

Visited Venice last year and went from Croatia to Venice on the hydrofoil and when we went through immigration the queue for EU passport holders was far slower than that of the non EU passport holders ( US,Aus,NZ etc).

kabayiri

phillw wrote: »

...
No quotas, no restrictions, no tariffs. The EU will not give us that deal without free movement, paying our way, adhering to european courts etc. They have to enforce that, or free trade cannot work.
...

The EU have an arrangement with the Ukraine....but this does not include FOM.

This actually suits the EU.

The four pillars are maybe three pillars and a tent pole.

If we had an EU quota of say 150K per annum rather than FOM, it would be similar numbers to now, except it would technically be a quota. To the individual worker they wouldn't care.

kabayiri

Private_Church wrote: »

And remaining in an inflexible union of 27 other countries (soon to be 33+) all with their own agenda is a viable prospect for the future?..... Seriously? The EU is being suffocated by political dogma, with each year that passes, its relevance on the world stage diminishes, its percentage of the worlds trade diminishes and you think I'm the gambler?. .........;)
...

The EU actually do know that they face some serious challenges such as the one you refer to.

But getting 27 different states to agree on the right course of action is another thing entirely.

The response to the migration crisis shows just how different individual states can be. There are strong cultural and religious reasons why a country like Poland objects, and yet Germany seems sanguine about change.

Maybe if the EU had one central government; one taxation system; one currency; one army; common border policy; then it really would act in concert.

Thrugelmir

phillw wrote: »

No quotas, no restrictions, no tariffs. The EU will not give us that deal without free movement, paying our way, adhering to european courts etc. They have to enforce that, or free trade cannot work.

I fail to see the connection between these and a trade deal. After all we keep getting told trade is mutually beneficial to all parties. Though one suspects some countries (i.e. the French) have other ideas. Not that I blame them. As it's a dog eat dog world when it comes to business.

phillw

kabayiri wrote: »

The EU have an arrangement with the Ukraine....but this does not include FOM.

Not yet.

"The agreement commits Ukraine to economic, judicial, and financial reforms to converge its policies and legislation to those of the European Union."

"The parties committed to co-operate and converge economic policy, legislation, and regulation across a broad range of areas, including equal rights for workers, steps towards visa-free movement of people, the exchange of information and staff in the area of justice, the modernisation of Ukraine's energy infrastructure, and access to the European Investment Bank."

Which sounds a lot like soft brexit. If you're happy with a ukrainian style agreement, then all the remainers would support that. We wouldn't even need the ten year process to introduce free movement etc as we're already doing it.

Thrugelmir wrote: »

I fail to see the connection between these and a trade deal.

Clearly, but the remaining 27 countries in the EU do not. Maybe you should try harder? I even listed some of the reasons..

Thrugelmir wrote: »

After all we keep getting told trade is mutually beneficial to all parties.

It is way more beneficial to us than it is to them. The EU can no longer give into our temper tantrums without damaging the EU, which must survive if we're to keep peace and prosperity in Europe that we've enjoyed the last few decades.

kabayiri wrote: »

Maybe if the EU had one central government; one taxation system; one currency; one army; common border policy; then it really would act in concert.

Some would say that is the ultimate aim. If that can work then it would be truly marvelous, of course the flag waving xenophobes would be unhappy.

kabayiri wrote: »

If we had an EU quota of say 150K per annum rather than FOM, it would be similar numbers to now, except it would technically be a quota. To the individual worker they wouldn't care.

The quotas I was talking about are trade quotas, so we would be limited to how much trade we could do. Some industries (like financial services) won't even be allowed to operate. Swapping free trade with quotas and limits, for a movement quota that doesn't change anything would seem worse than stupid.

It's not free trade if you limit the number of workers who can implement that trade to 150,000. The EU is clear we can't have our cake and eat it.

Private_Church wrote: »

And remaining in an inflexible union of 27 other countries (soon to be 33+) all with their own agenda is a viable prospect for the future?..... Seriously?

Yes, seriously. I find it ridiculous that people argue that they'll do a deal with us because it's in their interest, but in another breath that they won't be able to do deals between themselves that are in their interest. The EU will go from strength to strength as long as the xenophobes don't take it down. It looks like UK is going to to be the only casualty, the rest of europe has seen sense. We've not done enough to redeem ourselves from the atrocities we have committed around the world, so most countries are still wary of us. Rallying together to protect themselves from us might even be what keeps the EU together.