Brexit, The Economy and House Prices (Part 2)

Herzlos

kabayiri wrote: »

Have you ever known the Tory party to say the same thing over Europe?

Exactly, that's why I find it so bizarre that anyone can claim with a straight face that they are in any way united over it. They can't even agree on what parts of Brexit they've considered already.

bobbymotors

There are NO CIRCUMSTANCES under which a decent trade deal will not be done.

Just do the arithmetic.

We buy twice as much from europe as we sell to them.

So import / export tariffs will benefit us far more than they will the EU.

Which means that despite all the blustering from Barnier and others, a deal will be done.

And it'll be tariff free.

gfplux

Herzlos wrote: »

I don't doubt they are saying that. But if that's the case why do they keep contradicting themselves & each other in public statements?

Are they in disarray or just incompetent when it comes to making public statements?

Is it some elaborate ruse to lull the EU into a false sense of security?

They may not have the EU confused but I am. Who is in charge and where is David Davis in all of this.

Herzlos

Conrad wrote: »

So you'veseen all the links here to European Govts stating trade with UK must not be harmed, in contrast to the murmerings from Barnier and co, but of course they are not in chaos, on no it's always us in chaos according to Remainer logic.

The EU agreed on their position unanimously and in record time. Divisions will likely appear later over little details and who gets what. The UK on the other hand can't even agree on, well, anything.

Conrad wrote: »

Really, you need something so simple explaining yet again?

I was going to ask you the same thing.

Any harm to our ability to trade, is of course harm for Holland and the others that trade heavily with the U.K.

That's still never been in doubt. Holland, of course, isn't trying to kick the UK out.

You know we've come to Europes rescue twice as Pachendale today illustrates so well. You Remainers are bonkers if you can't see there is just no way Europe will seek to harm us.

We have, and they've come to our rescue before as well.

But again, the EU isn't seeking to harm us. We've chosen to leave their union, so now their priority just doesn't include us. They will go for whats best for the EU and if it happens to hurt us, well, that's exactly what we asked for.

We're the ones that are asking for 2 completely incompatible points. Now I'm pretty sure we'll get something that looks a lot like free movement of goods, but we'll be the ones (not Europe) who'll have to compromise on it. Holland losing it's 2nd largest market for a few types of goods will not be enough to let the EU cave in and give us everything we want. Doing that would probably cause the EU to collapse.

I genuinely don't know what sort of deal you think we can offer the EU that they'll be able to accept, beyond us offering to pay them about £10bn to unwind A50 and pretend nothing happened.

always_sunny

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

*Warning*
Opinion piece ahead.
But nonetheless I thought that this was worthy of consideration in regard to Brexit:

If you want a picture of Britain’s future relationship with the European Union, think of Canada’s with the United States. Canadians have a type of federation on their doorstep that they decline to join, but with which they enjoy the closest possible diplomatic, military and economic ties. Two years from now, in a similar vein, the European Union will have lost a bad tenant and gained a good neighbor.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/31/opinion/brexit-european-union-good-news.html

But it's not really the same though is it?
Canada has never been part of the USA and a comparable scenario would be what the relationship between the United States and California post secession.

The EU and Britain could have a good neighbouring relationship but for that the UK needs to grow up and stop patronising neighbouring countries (that really is the EU).

Look at the Brexit coverage on [most of] the British press and how the EU is portrayed. Many brexiteers would like to see the EU collapse. Would you want to be good friends with those people?

Herzlos

bobbymotors wrote: »

There are NO CIRCUMSTANCES under which a decent trade deal will not be done.

Other than the Tories screwing it up, I agree.

Though I doubt it'll be due to the EU giving in to what the UK wants (whatever that is), and with a deal that'll make most of the Brexiteers pretty angry.

Thrugelmir

always_sunny wrote: »

Look at the Brexit coverage on [most of] the British press and how the EU is portrayed.

In general fairly accurately.

National interests rule every time. Hardly surprising that the negotiations aren't going well.

France and Italy in row over shipyard

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-40778364

Thrugelmir

Herzlos wrote: »

I don't doubt they are saying that. But if that's the case why do they keep contradicting themselves & each other in public statements?

Are they in disarray or just incompetent when it comes to making public statements?

Is it some elaborate ruse to lull the EU into a false sense of security?

Where are Labour in the debate or the Liberals for that matter while the Tories dominate the media. Seems as if there's grown up discussion going on. With all options open. After all the EU have to agree. Whatever the UK's final agreed position is. There's nothing secret about what's being said. Nor is holding an alternative view a sin.

cogito

Thrugelmir wrote: »

In general fairly accurately.

National interests rule every time. Hardly surprising that the negotiations aren't going well

The EU isn't a nation.

always_sunny

Thrugelmir wrote: »

In general fairly accurately.

National interests rule every time. Hardly surprising that the negotiations aren't going well.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-40778364

That's not true either though. I mean, the article it's true but not the gravity of the event.
It'll be like reporting in the continent that the United Kingdom is about to break because there is no unity. It's imminent, it's about to happen.

Most of British press portray the UK has the [sole] winner, that it's taking the Brexit route because it deserves, better and it's held almost captive and hostage by the EU.

Look at comments from people, even in this forum with the strong belief that British people deserve better, that British taxpayers are funding everything everywhere, etc.

If the UK was a person, you'd think they're a bit full of themselves and perhaps not befriend them too much. You can't expect the EU wanting to be too friendly with a country (the UK) wishing their demise.