Brexit, The Economy and House Prices (Part 2)

Herzlos

Rinoa wrote: »

We export over $54Bn to the US annually. I guess it will just be more of the same.

Surely we're not going through all of this disruption for more of the same though?

Filo25

Rinoa wrote: »

There's no reason for having another election unless the government lose a vote of confidence. That can only happen if the DUP pull out of the arrangement.

Highly unlikely as the DUP see Corbyn as an IRA sympathiser. They certainly won't want him as PM.

I fully agree, but Brexit still may have the ability to pull the Tories apart.

I'm not convinced we will have an early election in any case, but I'm equally far from convinced that the Tories can deliver a Brexit which is both successful economically and popular politically, if Labour can distance themselves from that then I wouldn't rule out a stronger Labour performance in 2022

cogito

Filo25 wrote: »

I'm far from his biggest fan, and wouldn't look forward to the prospect with any great enthusiasm, but at this stage I don't think you can rule out the possiblity of him becoming PM at some stage in the future.

Theresa May isn't going to face another election as leader after the shambles she just delivered in the last one, and I don't see an obvious popular leader in waiting for the Tories either.

David Davis if the vote were now. Jacob Rees-Mogg in a couple of years but he needs a ministry.

cogito

Herzlos wrote: »

I thought the Brexiteers would want Corbyn to be heading negotiations, being that he's been anti-EU for decades and May was a Remainer. Corbyn should give you the better deal, seems to actually have some credibility and some sort of plan with his "jobs first Brexit"

What exactly does he mean by a 'jobs first Brexit'? Until he tells us, it's just another of his meaningless soundbites.

Rinoa

Herzlos wrote: »

Surely we're not going through all of this disruption for more of the same though?

No. But we won't see dramatic changes immediately after we leave. It'll take time for the advantages to become apparent.

Filo25

cogito wrote: »

David Davis if the vote were now. Jacob Rees-Mogg in a couple of years but he needs a ministry.

Rees Mogg???

Do you really think that is someone who resonates with the UK at present?

A lot of the high profile Leavers will look great if they can deliver what they promised during the referendum, I wish I shared the optimism of many on the likelihood of that happening.

Herzlos

cogito wrote: »

What exactly does he mean by a 'jobs first Brexit'? Until he tells us, it's just another of his meaningless soundbites.

It means he's going to work on a Brexit where jobs is the priority - that'd mean (I assume) trade policies that don't affect jobs, and migration as needed.

It's not much, but the bar with the "Red white & blue Brexit" is so low it's unreal.

Filo25

Herzlos wrote: »

It means he's going to work on a Brexit where jobs is the priority - that'd mean (I assume) trade policies that don't affect jobs, and migration as needed.

It's not much, but the bar with the "Red white & blue Brexit" is so low it's unreal.

I think that Labour's position is as much of a mess as the Tories is, the difference is of course that the Tories have to deliver it, while Labour will try to sit on the sidelines sniping as much as they possibly can.

kabayiri

Arklight wrote: »

You best get used to the fact that Brexit isn't going to happen.

If it doesn't, it doesn't.

I'm pretty sanguine about it.

The impact will be a crisis in British democracy, which a resurgent right will make hay with, so not a bad thing in my book.

Filo25

kabayiri wrote: »

If it doesn't, it doesn't.

I'm pretty sanguine about it.

The impact will be a crisis in British democracy, which a resurgent right will make hay with, so not a bad thing in my book.

I think it is highly unlikely that Brexit doesn't happen, the only way I could envisage that it doesn't is that the whole Brexit process is handled so badly that public opinion shifts significantly and a second referendum is required which then delivers a very different result.

As I say highly unlikely to happen and if it is it won't be down to ignoring the will of people, it would be down to promising them the world and failing to deliver it.