The Great British Brexit Robbery....

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

bugslet wrote: »

* ONS estimated that impact on wages was 2%,

Not quite.

The author of an influential piece of economic research frequently heralded by leading Brexiteers as evidence that immigration from the European Union undermines native British wages has stressed that the negative impact is “infinitesimally small” and that his findings had been widely misrepresented.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/impact-of-immigration-on-native-wages-infinitesimally-small-a7545196.html

It's about 1% in total over 8 years - a tiny fraction of a percent per year - and even then only for the very small minority in society who are the very lowest earning.

And that has been completely counteracted by the well above inflation increases in minimum wage and increases to the tax free allowance.

So in reality - the effect is purely theoretical - as it's been wiped out by tax and minimum wage changes.

Meanwhile in other news....

The UK jobs market is already beginning to feel the negative impact of Brexit, with shortages of European Union migrant labour in growing evidence in sectors ranging from nursing, to cleaning, to IT and accountancy.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-immigration-european-union-labour-market-recruiters-a7724061.html

Conrad

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

The UK jobs market is already beginning to feel the negative impact of Brexit, with shortages of European Union migrant labour in growing evidence in sectors ranging from nursing, to cleaning, to IT and accountancy.

So let me guess, the only answer is to ....... import more people.......ta da, so deep, so imaginative

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Conrad wrote: »

So let me guess, the only answer is to ....... import more people.......ta da, so deep, so imaginative

Well we could breed some more of our own but child labour laws mean an 18 year wait for that to take effect....;)

bugslet

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Not quite.


http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/impact-of-immigration-on-native-wages-infinitesimally-small-a7545196.html

It's about 1% in total over 8 years - a tiny fraction of a percent per year - and even then only for the very small minority in society who are the very lowest earning.

And that has been completely counteracted by the well above inflation increases in minimum wage and increases to the tax free allowance.

So in reality - the effect is purely theoretical - as it's been wiped out by tax and minimum wage changes.

Meanwhile in other news....

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-immigration-european-union-labour-market-recruiters-a7724061.html

I'm not getting into a bicker with you Hamish, because you go on and on and on and on.

Firstly it wasn't my main point, it was an aside, but it was commonly touted figure and this was from Fullfact a few days before the vote

https://fullfact.org/immigration/does-immigration-reduce-wages/

Overall the effect may be notional, but the lowest paid sectors are the most affected.

Conrad

bugslet wrote: »

I'm not getting into a bicker with you Hamish, because you go on and on and on and on.

Firstly it wasn't my main point, it was an aside, but it was commonly touted figure and this was from Fullfact a few days before the vote

https://fullfact.org/immigration/does-immigration-reduce-wages/

Overall the effect may be notional, but the lowest paid sectors are the most affected.

A key reason 'liberals' have become so out of touch is they long ago forgot to talk to the coal face (you) in favour of pouring over the scribbling's of lofty academics that know nothing of your lived reality.


Hamish no doubt would be like those undercover bosses we see on TV, surprised that shop floor reality bares no resemblance to his spread sheets and expert advice




Hamish knows that WW1 Generals were hideously out of touch, refusing to listen to trench feedback in favour of reports and charts written in Whitehall which lead to huge mistakes


100 years later and still some of us disregard coal face feedback when intelligence gathering

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

bugslet wrote: »

Overall the effect may be notional, but the lowest paid sectors are the most affected.

There has been zero negative effect on the lowest paid in reality - because changes to tax allowances and well above inflation minimum wage rises have far outweighed the fraction of a percent per year pressure from immigration.

This is a non-issue.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

bugslet wrote: »

and then Obama..... I'm one of those people that doesn't like being threatened/bullied.

Ooops...

Wilbur Ross, Donald Trump’s commerce secretary, who has called Brexit a “God-given opportunity” to steal trade from Britain, admits our discussions are a low priority.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/may/02/europe-landslide-victory-theresa-may-brexit

New administration - same reality.

Private_Church

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

There has been zero negative effect on the lowest paid in reality - because changes to tax allowances and well above inflation minimum wage rises have far outweighed the fraction of a percent per year pressure from immigration.

This is a non-issue.

So the bricklayers and Chippies I know personally who were earning £150 a day doing site work were not affected at all when minibus loads of Poles and Lithuanians turned up on site willing to work for £8 hr ?.. Many of them living 5+ to a house paying 1/5th of all the household bills competing against British and Irish tradesmen who had families and mortgages to pay for and you claim the effect was zero.............

You do talk some tosh Hamish. As always if doesn't affect you personally so it doesn't exist.You just can't see any problem, any issue with the open door policy because anyone who is actually affected personally is a racist bigot.. Its a very sad mindset to be so selfish Hamish but I guess it takes all sorts to make a world..

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Private_Church wrote: »

So the bricklayers and Chippies I know personally who were earning £150 a day doing site work were not affected at all

Correct.

These meaningless (and usually fictional) anecdotals are of no relevance to the facts and the big picture - which is on average almost nobody has lost out through EU migration and the vast majority have gained significantly.

gfplux

bugslet wrote: »

Yep, I'm definitely a lady.

All the reasons....let's stick with one for now. Regular readers can skip this, it's re-hashing old territory.

I work in International haulage and have done all of my working life since '82 one way or another. I used to drive out to Europe in the mid 80s to early 90s and around 8 out of every 10 trucks were UK registered. The stats for the third quarter of 2016 were 12.6 % were British registered.

Whilst many industries suffer from off-shoring to some degree or another, this is different ( I think unique, but there may be another industry so I'm open to suggestions), and nor is it to do with other EU workers coming here and undercutting pay rates. * In essence we have now primarily Polish, Lithuanian, Romanian and Bulgarian companies where the cost base is significantly lower than in the country where they trade. The primary cost being wages, which in a UK truck forms approx 25% of costs; those nations above are paying around a third of what I would pay a UK driver.

The EU relaxed cabotage rules a couple of years ago (previously a foreign truck could deliver from abroad and then collect to take to another foreign country, but no moves from say Glasgow to Birmingham), to allow three moves in say the UK, before having to collect cargo for abroad. The stated intention is that cabotage be abolished completely. Currently domestic moves by foreign hauliers only account for 1% of UK transport, but the latest DfT figures showed an increase of 50% in one year. Personally I see that increasing.

I'm in a very unusual sector and no Polish company can take my work, but it bothers me that so many Companies have gone and so much tax revenue has been lost. I used to backload via a clearing house/freight exchange, but it is now cheaper for me to bring back a truck from the bottom end of Italy empty than to load it as I cannot work for the rates that the East EU can do. My outbound rate cover the cost of the return, so it isn't an issue, unlike general hauliers.

The EU has actually recognised this as a problem. The UK has been slow in this regard, but over the last two years, several countries - notably France and Germany - have introduced Minimum Wage legislation to say that any haulier from another member state has to pay at least the minimum wage in their country and recently they have enforced the regulation that says that you cannot take a weekend break (45 hours) in the cab. Both those laws are aimed at curtailing East EU hauliers. The EU Transport Commissioner is this month looking at the problem, and I think they will do something dressed up as social care - some of those foreign lads are working for a pittance and are literally away from home for months at a time. It's a carp existence for them.

* ONS estimated that impact on wages was 2%, but discounted sessional workers. Whilst I could lose 2% of my wage and not notice, those on poor pay will. I've given you the above as a reason, this is another. It isn't xenophobia, it's economics. I've no issue with migrant labour and certainly when it comes to the Poles, I've nothing but praise for their work ethic, time-keeping and standards generally, but I do feel sorry for those affected.

Technically I voted against my interests as theoretically being a big bad nasty boss, I should welcome wage suppression and there is potential customs issues arising, but I'm sanguine about those for reasons I've mentioned in previous threads.

Thank you for that analysis, very enlightening.
The Haulage problem you speak of is like many problems within the UK been ignored (is that too strong a word) by the UK Government. Why, I have no idea.
There are many regulation brought in either by individual governments or by the EU that have unintended consequences. These become apparent quite quickly but Governments are often slow to do something.