the snap general election thread

kabayiri

fun4everyone wrote: »

Of course....although I think it would be better to just lay TM to be next prime minister.
...

I think voting for her is showing enough support, thanks.

I will stop short of any closer contact. :eek:

CKhalvashi

padington wrote: »

Sorry don't understand, can you explain again?

It's 66% to dissolve Parliament (as we've just seen), and 50% for a vote of no confidence.

chucknorris wrote: »

An election this year is a 31% chance according to betfair, and that is just this year, there could also be one next year.

I'm erring on this year, however yes, this is correct, or in 2019 if any deal collapses.

chucknorris wrote: »

Eh? No, he was explaining that there could be a successful vote of no confidence.

Yes, that's exactly what I was doing.

I think that's more likely at this stage than what we saw on April 19th.

It is to an extent wishful thinking, however it's extremely realistic. We know already that minority governments in the UK last for months rather than years.

kabayiri

Oddly, the thing that could save May (for the time being) is a clear distraction.

Perhaps something involving fractious exchange with bods on the continent...

Mr Juncker, step forward! May's most unlikely ally.

chucknorris

fun4everyone wrote: »

Of course....although I think it would be better to just lay TM to be next prime minister.

She clearly has jumped the gun going to see the queen to tell her she can form a government a few days ago hasn't she? Goat parchment lol

In that case wouldn't you be better off just taking the 3/1 in the 'PM after May' market for Corbyn right now? The advantage would be that there doesn't even have to be an early election, your bet would stand until the next GE. whenever it is.

CKhalvashi

kabayiri wrote: »

Oddly, the thing that could save May (for the time being) is a clear distraction.

Perhaps something involving fractious exchange with bods on the continent...

Mr Juncker, step forward! May's most unlikely ally.

Is this the same Mr Juncker who allegedly attempted to end her career by advising her to call this election?

I doubt he's going to try to save her now.

kabayiri

CKhalvashi wrote: »

Is this the same Mr Juncker who allegedly attempted to end her career by advising her to call this election?

I doubt he's going to try to save her now.

Few people remember how shaky a certain Margaret Thatcher was at home, when the Falklands crisis blew up. It's funny what can come to your rescue.

But, who knows...it's a weird old time. Corbyn will have to be broadly supportive of May trying to get Brexit negotiations underway, whilst at the same time trying to undermine her at home for political gain.

StevieJ

fun4everyone wrote: »

There will be an election this year and Labour will easily win a majority.

This Tory-DUP thing cannot and won't succeed. Nobody wants to upset the NI peace process. May not thinking about that and rushing in to do a deal was quite reprehensible.

Then again both sides of the political divide in Northern Ireland want an open border and soft brexit.

fun4everyone

chucknorris wrote: »

In that case wouldn't you be better off just taking the 3/1 in the 'PM after May' market for Corbyn right now? The advantage would be that there doesn't even have to be an early election, your bet would stand until the next GE. whenever it is.

I prefer the lower chance of winning/higher reward of laying her (nudge nudge) @ 1.08 a few days ago to be the next pm (settled on royal ascent granted). Currently trading at 1.17 - well it was at 4pm not looked since. Something is going to give.

chucknorris

fun4everyone wrote: »

I prefer the lower chance of winning/higher reward of laying her (nudge nudge) @ 1.08 a few days ago to be the next pm (settled on royal ascent granted). Currently trading at 1.17 - well it was at 4pm not looked since. Something is going to give.

Sorry but (after being a bookmaker for over 35 years) I tend to ignore after timer claims of laying or backing something well after that price was available. Or did you post this at the time?

fun4everyone

chucknorris wrote: »

Sorry but (after being a bookmaker for over 35 years) I tend to ignore after timer claims of laying or backing something well after that price was available. Or did you post this at the time?

No I did not post that at the time and you brought it up not me. You can still lay her at 1.17 just now not a huge difference